To The Moon

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ remains one of the market's most closely watched stocks—and one of its most polarizing.

The stock has fallen roughly 45% from its June high, traded lower in nine of the last ten sessions, and recently slipped below its IPO price for the first time.

At the same time, short sellers have continued to build positions, with reported short interest now approaching one-third of the company's public float, representing roughly $25 billion in bearish bets.

Two Very Different Views

The recent selloff has split investors into two camps.

The bearish argument is centered on valuation. Even after the sharp decline, critics argue the company still trades at a rich multiple relative to revenue, suggesting much of its long-term growth is already reflected in the share price. They also point to upcoming share unlocks, which could increase the public float and add further volatility.

The bullish view focuses less on short-term price action and more on the company's long-term strategy. Supporters argue that temporary setbacks—including the recent scrubbed Starship launch due to engine issues—do not materially change the broader investment thesis. Instead, they continue to view reusable launch systems, Starlink, and future space infrastructure as long-term growth drivers.

Why the Next Few Weeks Matter

Several factors could shape sentiment from here:

• Insider share unlocks, which may increase the number of shares available for trading.

• Progress on Starship testing, following the delayed launch.

• Whether buyers step in after the stock moved below its IPO price.

These events are likely to influence near-term volatility more than day-to-day market noise.

SpaceX has shifted from one of the market's strongest momentum trades to one of its most hotly debated stocks.

Bears see a valuation that remains difficult to justify despite the decline.

Bulls see a long-term opportunity created by short-term fear.

With heavy short positioning, upcoming unlocks, and continued focus on execution, the next stage for SpaceX is likely to be defined by whether fundamentals begin to catch up with expectations—or whether the market continues to reset those expectations.