To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 20Jul2026)

Several major data releases are due in the coming week, each offering insight into demand conditions, labour-market momentum, the housing sector, and the broader economic outlook.

Crude oil inventories: Markets typically view this release as a gauge of consumption trends, particularly from the perspective of major oil companies.

Initial jobless claims: The latest claims data will be released after a previous reading of 208,000. This remains one of the key labour-market indicators the Federal Reserve monitors when assessing upcoming interest-rate decisions.

New home sales: June new home sales will be released following a previous reading of 580,000 units. The data will serve as an important barometer for the health of the real estate market.

PMI Releases and Global Demand Outlook

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI for July will also be released in the coming week. These indicators are important references for demand across goods and services, and together they should provide a clearer view of the broader global economic trend.

Earnings Calendar (20Jul2026)

Earnings season continues in the coming week, with several major announcements of particular interest:

· Tesla· Alphabet (Google)· IBM· AT&T· Nokia· Blackstone Group· Intel

Blackstone Overview

Blackstone’s share price has fallen by 24.78% over the past year. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock carries a “strong buy” recommendation, while analyst sentiment also points to a “buy” rating. The current price target is $139.75, implying potential upside of 10.12%. However, valuation remains a concern, with the price-to-earnings ratio standing at a relatively steep 32.6.

Revenue and Profitability Trends, 2021–2025

Blackstone’s revenue trend has weakened over the 2021–2025 period. Annual total revenue was $22.1 billion in 2021, fell below $8 billion in each of the following two years, and recovered to $14.2 billion by 2025. While the rebound is positive, revenue remains well below the 2021 level.

Operating income followed a similar pattern. It started at $12.8 billion in 2021, declined to around $3 billion in each of the next two years, then improved to $6.2 billion in 2024 and $7 billion in 2025. Net income also declined, falling from $5.8 billion in 2021 to $3 billion in 2025. The company remains profitable, which is encouraging, but the decline in total annual revenue over the period remains a key concern.

Balance Sheet and Debt Position

From 2021 to 2025, Blackstone’s total assets increased from $41.1 billion to $47.7 billion. Total liabilities also rose over the same period, from $19.4 billion to $25.8 billion. Total equity was broadly stable, moving only slightly from $21.7 billion in 2021 to $21.8 billion in 2025.

The more concerning point is the rise in total debt, which increased from $8.6 billion in 2021 to $13.3 billion in 2025. This suggests that leverage has grown even though equity has remained largely unchanged.

Cash Flow Performance

Operating cash flow improved from $3.9 billion in 2021 to $4.6 billion in 2025. The strongest year during the period was 2022, when operating cash flow reached $6.3 billion.

Cash flow from financing has been negative over the past five years, which is encouraging because it suggests the company has been making efforts to reduce debt. Net cash flow also improved meaningfully, rising from $135 million in 2021 to $678 million in 2025.

Q2/2026 Blackstone News (Summary from Gemini)

• Surging Exit Revenues: Blackstone reported robust transaction activity, projecting realization-related revenue to exceed $500 million for the quarter (as of June 23). This surge was driven primarily by successful asset liquidations and realized performance fees, keeping total firmwide assets under management (AUM) strong at over $1.3 trillion.

• Massive AI Infrastructure Bets: The firm solidified its position as a dominant force in the artificial intelligence boom. In its Mid-Year Investment Perspectives, leadership dubbed AI infrastructure—specifically power generation and data centers—as their primary global investment thesis, noting that roughly 50% of their portfolio companies have now integrated generative AI.

• Valuation Debate & Q2 Earnings: Wall Street analysts debated Blackstone’s commercial real estate concentration risks against its massive private credit growth. The firm scheduled its formal Q2 2026 earnings release for July 23, 2026.

Earnings

For the coming earnings, the forecast for EPS and Revenue are $1.33 and $3.4 billion, respectively.

For now, I prefer to monitor Blackstone.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (20Jul2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.16, indicating that the market has more buying momentum than selling momentum.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above 200-day (MA200) moving average but just cut the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and a probable trend change in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook with crossover in the upcoming days. This suggests a potential reversal in trend.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Neutral” rating with 9 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 10 indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “37”, the CNN’s Fear & Greed index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Fear”. This is a drop from the “Neutral” sentiment from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bearish for the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Jul2026)

Meta is having a moment... again. Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger are glitching for users around the world, with desktop Facebook logins failing and Instagram throwing up “something went wrong” messages. The apps appear to be working for some people, so this isn’t a total blackout, just enough chaos to make everyone wonder whether they’ve been hacked. Nope. Meta is simply falling apart again. Source: The Independent / Writer: Ian

The US is spending $50 billion on data center construction, exceeding the combined spending on airports, ports, and mass transit, per Bloomberg.

"We replaced Salesforce with a vibe-coded CRM built for our own workflows. The custom system integrated our AI agents more effectively, worked better for the team, and made Salesforce unnecessary. That decision cut a $600,000 annual software bill to zero." - X user Harry Stebbings

Big Tech’s dominance is unprecedented: The Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) sector now accounts for a record 49% of the S&P 500’s market value. This is ~9 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak and ~20 percentage points above the late-1960s high. The tech sector now carries a larger weight than the financials, cyclicals, and defensives sectors combined. By comparison, TMT accounted for just ~19% of the S&P 500 during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US stock market has never been this reliant on tech. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Warren Buffett told CNBC it's "tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling." His company Berkshire Hathaway is holding $397 billion in cash and has been selling more stock than it buys for over a year. In May he called the market "a church with a casino attached." He was specifically talking about same-day options, which are essentially bets on whether a stock goes up or down within hours. Volume on those is at record levels while retail investors pile into Micron and the SpaceX IPO.

My Investing Muse (20Jul2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

• GOOGLE WORKERS ARE BRACING FOR LAYOFFS. 4,500 signed a petition demanding guaranteed severance and an end to performance quotas. 100+ rallied at HQ to deliver it to CEO Sundar Pichai. 4 in 10 tech workers now say they fear being laid off within a year. - X user Layoff Hedge

• "Millions of Americans want jobs but can't find them, and the number now exceeds the Great Financial Crisis," per Benzinga

• The total number of job cuts attributed to AI are 87,714 2026, per Challenger and Gray. This is 22% of all 2026 layoffs. - X user Unusual Whale

• "Midsize companies that employ millions of workers are now shedding jobs and relocating overseas to cut costs," per WSJ

Summary of news (compiled by Gemini)

The week starting July 13, 2026, saw significant job reductions across the technology, consulting, and media sectors, largely driven by corporate restructuring and a strategic shift toward artificial intelligence.

In tech, Thomson Reuters announced plans to cut up to 500 engineering roles to pivot toward AI-native talent. Similarly, Singapore’s GovTech cut roughly 300 positions as part of a sector-wide reorganisation, while Sprout Social slashed 20% of its workforce. Amid mounting uncertainty, 4,500 Google employees staged a protest at the Mountain View campus, demanding stronger job security protections.

Beyond tech, KPMG Australia prepared to eliminate over 1,000 consulting roles to combat challenging business conditions. Additionally, defense IT firm Leidos cut 305 indirect roles, advertising giant WPP trimmed an estimated 300 positions, and UK supermarket chain ASDA placed 300 security jobs at risk.

The Battle of AI

Chinese models have caught up in terms of performance, at a tiny fraction of the cost. We also see more companies turning from American models to Chinese models. The Chinese are delivering more value per token spent. Is this something that can be bridged over time? Is it really about 2 countries or the fight between an open-sourced versus a closed system?

Will Kimi’s valuation imply the overvaluation of both OpenAI and Anthropic?

Chinese models are 112x cheaper than Anthropic per million tokens. Chamath laid it out on CNBC: a “barrel of intelligence” costs $56 from Anthropic, $26 from OpenAI, $1.50 from Meta, $1 from xAI and Google, and $0.50 from Chinese models. - X user Shruti (Source: CNBC news)

Geopolitical and Market Risks to Watch

One of the biggest developments over the past week has been the escalation of tensions in the Gulf between the United States and Iran. The recent exchanges have caused further damage and loss of life, adding to broader uncertainty across global markets.

Weather Disruptions and El Niño Risk

Weather-related disruptions have also increased. Recent events include a landslide in Chongqing, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake in Mexico, flooding in Malaysia, and wildfires in Spain. Air quality concerns have also emerged after fires in Canada contributed to unhealthy conditions across several U.S. states, creating additional disruption around major events such as the FIFA World Cup finals.

The effects of El Niño should be monitored closely. If agricultural harvests are affected, the impact on food supply, livelihoods, and the cost of living could become more visible by the end of this year or in early 2027.

Economic Outlook and Earnings Focus

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fifth year, has also seen more severe military exchanges. There are growing rumours of a wider military conflict in the region.

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the current administration has limited time to shift sentiment and reshape the broader narrative. The FIFA World Cup 2026 may provide some relief for U.S. consumers and retail activity, but it remains unclear whether this will be enough to offset ongoing inflationary pressure and labour-market concerns.

China has reported quarterly GDP growth of 4.3%, bringing its annual growth forecast to around 4.7%. This is important not only as a signal of China’s domestic conditions, but also as a broader reference point for global consumption, which appears to be weakening.

The coming earnings season will therefore be important. Companies will report revenue and profit from the previous quarter, but the most important data may be management outlooks and forward guidance, as these will offer clues about demand, margins, and confidence for the months ahead.

Leverage and Market Concentration Risks

Investors should pay close attention to developments in Asia, particularly in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, where significant leverage appears to be present in investing and trading activity.

In South Korea, reports indicate that 1.2 million accounts have faced margin calls, while around 250,000 accounts have been liquidated. Although similar leveraged trades exist in other regional markets, South Korea appears more exposed because much of the leveraged activity is concentrated in two companies.

The United States is also facing concentration risk, particularly around big technology stocks and the “Magnificent Seven.” With SpaceX’s current stock price reportedly falling below its initial public offering price, the broader question is what this suggests about investor sentiment and market confidence.

As always, I recommend caution. We should continue to research carefully before investing.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

$Blackstone Group LP(BX)$