To The Moon

Key Takeaways

• Q2 deliveries rose 34% QoQ to 480,126 vehicles.

• Deliveries exceeded production by 28,368 units, helping reduce inventory.

• Revenue may rise 23% QoQ, while gross margin may fall to 19.5%.

• Energy storage deployment jumped 53% QoQ to 13.5GWh.

• Q2 free cash flow may fall to negative US$3.25 billion.

• Capex may reach US$6.70 billion, equal to 24% of revenue.

• Robotaxi, FSD and Optimus still need clearer operating data.

• Terafab may support Tesla’s chip supply, but could add funding pressure.

• TSLA still trades at about 305 times 2026 GAAP earnings.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will report its Q2 2026 results after market close on 22 July.$Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$

The company has already reported strong operating numbers. Q2 deliveries reached 480,126 vehicles, up 34.1% from Q1. Production reached 451,758 vehicles, up 10.6%.

Deliveries were 28,368 units higher than production. This suggests Tesla reduced some inventory during the quarter.

Model 3 and Model Y made up 467,762 units, or 97.4% of total deliveries. Other models contributed only 12,364 units. Tesla still relies heavily on two main models.

Deliveries improved, but pricing may be weaker

Q2 deliveries recovered strongly from 358,023 units in Q1.

Market estimates point to Q2 automotive revenue of about US$20.05 billion, up 23.5% QoQ. This growth is slower than the 34.1% rise in deliveries.

Automotive revenue per vehicle may fall from about US$45,300 in Q1 to US$41,800 in Q2, down nearly 8%.

This is only a rough measure because automotive revenue also includes leasing, regulatory credits and other items. Still, it suggests pressure from pricing, promotions and product mix.

The key number will be automotive gross margin excluding credits. The market expects slightly above 18%.

If margins stay around this level, Tesla may show that higher volume can offset some pricing pressure. A clear drop below 18% may raise concerns about the quality of growth.

Revenue may rise, while gross margin falls

Analyst consensus points to Q2 revenue of about US$27.58 billion, up 23.2% QoQ and 22.6% YoY.

Expected revenue mix:

• Automotive: US$20.05 billion

• Energy: US$3.77 billion

• Services and other: US$3.76 billion

Total gross margin is expected at 19.5%, down from 21.1% in Q1.

Operating margin may improve from 4.2% to 5.4%. Expected operating profit is about US$1.50 billion, up around 60% QoQ.

This means operating leverage may improve, even if gross margin remains under pressure.

Energy remains a key growth area

Tesla deployed 13.5GWh of energy storage in Q2, up 53.4% QoQ and 40.6% YoY.

Energy revenue is expected to reach US$3.77 billion, up 56.7% QoQ.

Revenue per GWh may stay close to US$280 million, compared with about US$274 million in Q1. This suggests pricing remained stable.

Energy may account for 13.7% of total revenue, up from 10.8% in Q1.

The next question is margin. If deployment, revenue and gross profit all rise together, energy could become a more meaningful earnings driver.

Cash flow may be the biggest concern

The market expects Q2 operating cash flow of US$3.45 billion and capex of US$6.70 billion.

This may result in negative free cash flow of US$3.25 billion. Q1 free cash flow was positive US$1.44 billion.

Capex may equal 24.3% of Q2 revenue, compared with about 11.1% in Q1.

Cash and investments may fall from US$44.74 billion to around US$41 billion. Tesla still has a strong balance sheet, but spending is rising fast.

Full-year capex is expected at about US$25.3 billion. Full-year free cash flow may reach negative US$9.85 billion.

Investors will want to know how much of this spending goes to AI chips, Robotaxi, Optimus, factories and computing capacity.

AI needs more operating data

Tesla reported 1.28 million active FSD subscribers in Q1, up 51% YoY.

That is a strong growth rate, but investors now need more details on revenue and usage.

For Robotaxi, key data includes:

• Fleet size

• Paid rides

• Paid miles

• Vehicle utilisation

• Safety interventions

• Operating cost per vehicle

For Optimus, investors will focus on production timing, supplier capacity and real use inside Tesla factories.

Production targets alone may have limited impact. The market needs evidence that these businesses can generate revenue or reduce costs.

SPCX and Terafab

After the SPCX listing, the Terafab project between SpaceX and Tesla may receive more attention.

The project is expected to produce AI5 and AI6 chips for Tesla vehicles and robots, as well as chips for SpaceX’s satellite and orbital computing systems.

For Tesla, Terafab may improve chip supply and reduce dependence on external foundries.

The main questions are financial:

• How much capital will Tesla provide?

• How much production capacity will Tesla receive?

• How will chip pricing be set?

• Who will own the technology and intellectual property?

The project may support Tesla’s long-term AI plans. It may also increase capex and related-party transaction risks.

Valuation remains demanding

At US$380.84 per share, Tesla’s market value is about US$1.35 trillion.

Based on current 2026 estimates:

• Price-to-sales: about 12.8 times

• GAAP P/E: about 305 times

• Non-GAAP P/E: about 183 times

Tesla is also expected to report negative free cash flow for 2026, making cash-flow valuation harder to support.

The stock price already includes high expectations for Robotaxi, FSD, Optimus and AI infrastructure.

For this earnings report, the main numbers are clear: automotive margin, operating margin, capex and free cash flow.

Strong deliveries can support the core business. Energy can improve the revenue mix. The next share-price move will depend more on earnings quality and evidence that AI spending can produce real commercial returns.$SpaceX(SPCX)$