To The Moon

I. Fundamentals: Strong Deliveries Come at the Cost of Profit and Cash Flow

Tesla's overall Q2 deliveries beat expectations, and the full-year delivery guidance was raised. However, gross margins and EPS are expected to come under pressure and trend lower, while capex has breached $25 billion and free cash flow has turned negative.

The market's real focus is no longer on car sales, but rather on the execution of Robotaxi rollouts and the production ramp of Optimus. Whether Tesla can build a moat in physical AI is the true make-or-break factor for this valuation.

Key Data:

• Deliveries (raised): 2026 raised from 1.57M → 1.67M units; 2027 from 1.82M → 1.86M units.

• Capex: 2026 expected at $26.8B, with FCF loss of approximately $11.4B, in line with company guidance.

• Robotaxi: Launched in Miami on 7/3 (including unsupervised vehicles), with expansion to Phoenix, Orlando, and other cities by year-end; 1,500 vehicles in the fleet by year-end, with a 2030 target of 30,000 vehicles.

• Optimus: Suppliers have been asked to ramp production capacity to 1,000 units per week by September, and 2,000–2,500 units by year-end. A significant volume ramp may not occur until 2027.

II. Volatility Projection and Key Price Levels

Based on Monday's pre-market price of $380.84 and using ATM at-the-money options, the implied move for this week (expiring 7/24) is approximately ±7.07%, corresponding to a range of roughly $353–$408.

Combined with options open interest data:

• In the short term, reclaiming the 372 pivot level points to a bullish offensive posture, with an initial target of 390–400. However, 400 is a hard ceiling, and with earnings falling in a negative gamma zone, volatility will be amplified.

• Bullish surprise (deliveries/margins/FSD/Robotaxi beat): Breaking 390 → testing the heavy Call wall at 400. Only with strong volume and a solid hold above 400 can 410–420 open up. The 400 area is the strongest resistance and will likely see rejection first.

• In-line: Choppy trading between 380–390, magnetized toward the 390 max-pain level, with IV crush eating into option buyers.

• Miss / weak guidance: Breaking below 372 → re-entering negative gamma territory, accelerating downside to 370 → 350. Only in extreme cases would it touch the deep OTM tail-protection levels at 300 / 230.

III. Block Trade Analysis: Some Are Betting It Won't Break 400

• Mid-term bearish anchor: 8,000 contracts of the 380 Put$TSLA 20261016 380.0 PUT$ expiring 10/16 were opened, with a neutral-leaning directional bias. This provides a psychological anchor / potential support reference around the 380 level.

• This week's Call Bear Spread (key signal): A large block trade opened a Bear Call Spread – selling the 387.5 Call and buying the 402.5 Call for this week's expiration. This structure profits from an inability to rally further: as long as TSLA closes below 387.5, the full premium is collected, with upside risk capped at 402.5. In other words, this flow is betting that the stock will struggle to effectively hold above ~388–400 post-earnings – reinforcing the view that 400 is a hard ceiling.

IV. Three Scenarios and Corresponding Strategies

Scenario 1: Range-bound chop (353–408, move ≤ ±7.07%) – Highest Probability

Expectations are met, no major surprises, and IV collapses post-earnings (IV crush). This is the most favorable environment for options sellers:

• Consider selling a Short Strangle or Iron Condor: sell Puts below support at 350 $TSLA 20260724 350.0 PUT$ and sell Calls above resistance at 400$TSLA 20260724 420.0 CALL$ . The Iron Condor uses long legs to cap tail risk on both ends, capturing IV crush + time decay.

• The aforementioned 387.5 $TSLA 20260724 387.5 CALL$/402.5 $TSLA 20260724 402.5 CALL$ Bear Call Spread is essentially a ready-made play for this scenario.

• If willing to take assignment, sell Puts below 350 – if broken, acquire shares at a discount; if not, collect premium.

• ⚠️ Risk: If earnings deviate sharply from expectations, sellers can get squeezed on either side – keep position sizes moderate.

Scenario 2: Holding above 400, breaking 410 (Strong upside surprise)

Robotaxi / Optimus / margins beat expectations, with volume-driven breakout. With IV still elevated, chasing a naked long Call is expensive and vulnerable to IV crush:

• Consider a Bull Call Spread (e.g., buy 400 $TSLA 20260724 400.0 CALL$  / sell 420 $TSLA 20260724 420.0 CALL$ ) to cap cost and reduce IV exposure.

• A more prudent approach is to wait for a retest of 400 as support after the breakout before entering, to avoid false breakouts (400 is a Call-wall magnet level prone to fakeouts).

• For sellers: Sell Puts on a pullback to support (385–390), betting against a return lower.

Scenario 3: Breakdown below 350 (Miss / weak guidance)

Breaking below 372 enters negative gamma territory, and further losses through 350 accelerate the downside:

• Consider a Bear Put Spread (e.g., buy 350$TSLA 20260724 350.0 PUT$  / sell 320$TSLA 20260724 320.0 PUT$) to control cost while positioning for the downside leg.

• Do not rush to buy the dip – negative gamma amplifies downward momentum. Wait for stabilization and IV to subside, then sell Puts at strong support levels (300–320, corresponding to those tail-protection positions) to acquire shares, combined with a wheel strategy to roll for premium income.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is an observational and strategy illustration based on publicly available options data, intended for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risk, and options are derivative products. Please assess your own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.