To The Moon

$Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ rose 10.5% on July 23, even as the broader US market declined. The move was supported by stronger earnings, raised guidance and a record backlog rather than solely by geopolitical headlines.

Second-quarter sales increased 11% year over year to $20.1 billion. Net earnings reached $1.8 billion, or $7.94 per share, while free cash flow improved to $2.9 billion. New orders totalled approximately $65 billion, lifting backlog to a record $230 billion. Lockheed Martin’s July 23 earnings release provides the figures.

Management raised full-year guidance to sales of approximately $79.75 billion–$81.75 billion and earnings of $29.95–$30.65 per share. It also expects about $7.0 billion–$7.2 billion in free cash flow.

Backlog is particularly important for a defence contractor because programmes commonly run for years. It provides better revenue visibility than the short order cycles found in many industrial businesses. Lockheed’s backlog includes a multiyear agreement covering THAAD missile interceptors, while higher production volumes are contributing to growth across aeronautics, missiles, helicopters and space.

The bullish argument is that depleted missile inventories and increased defence readiness requirements should support sustained production. Demand also has relatively broad political support, reducing the likelihood that one election immediately reverses major programmes.

The risks are execution and contract economics. Large fixed-price development programmes can produce substantial charges when costs exceed initial assumptions. The year-over-year profit comparison also benefited from approximately $1.6 billion of programme losses recorded during the second quarter of 2025, making the current growth rate look unusually large.

LMT Daily Chart

$Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ ’s daily chart has produced a constructive breakout from the base that formed between roughly $490 and $547, with the earnings-driven surge carrying price decisively above the prior range ceiling. The key level now is $547, which should act as former resistance turned support; as long as LMT holds above this area on a closing basis, the breakout remains valid and the probability of further upside improves. The first major resistance zone is located around $590–$598.50, where prior price congestion may attract profit-taking, followed by the broader $615–$638 supply zone if momentum continues. A clean retest and hold of $547 would strengthen the setup considerably, while a sustained move back below that level would raise the risk that the breakout was a false start rather than the beginning of a new advance. Personally, I missed the breakout. However, this will be in my watchlist for selling csp if the price retest 547 successfully. If it continues to rally from here, I will not chase this ticker.

The evidence leans bullish because backlog, orders, cash flow and guidance improved simultaneously. The thesis would be invalidated by new programme charges, supply-chain problems that prevent production increases or falling orders that reduce the backlog. A failure to hold the earnings gap would weaken, but not independently disprove, the fundamental case. This is personal opinion for education and is not financial advice.

@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Daily_Discussion

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are personal opinions based on publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. I do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.