Live Recap 2: Korea's Macro Backdrop — GDP, Valuations, and Capital Flows Behind the KOSPI Story
1. Live Review Introduction
Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Vyann, featuring Ross Dong, Founding Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management and founder of Gongxing Academy. With over 15 years of experience as an equity trader at firms including J.P. Morgan and KCG, Ross holds a Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. His research spans macro trading, U.S. equities, and the structural dynamics behind the global AI memory supply chain, and he currently manages over $30M in AUM while leading a community of 15,000+ members. Memory stocks including $SK hynix(SKHY)$ have pulled back sharply since late June even as the AI infrastructure buildout keeps accelerating, leaving investors to weigh whether this is a short-term top or a buying opportunity within a longer boom.
Disclaimer: All content shared is purely for investor education purposes and does not constitute any financial advice, investment recommendation or trading signal. All trading involves significant risks. Please conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
2. Foreign Investor Flows: From Heavy Selling to Moderation
Foreign investors' exposure to Korean equities expanded to roughly US$1.8 trillion between January and June this year, with their share of the Korean equity market rising to about 38% by end-June. Since then, outflow pressure has started to moderate:
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The scope of foreign rebalancing appears to have narrowed.
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Fund flows into Korea-linked passive ETFs such as $iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ have picked up, with roughly $3 billion flowing in over just a few days following July 9.
3. Pension Funds Stepping Back In
Korea's National Pension Service (NPS) could gradually resume rebalancing into domestic equities if the KOSPI climbs above the 9,000 level. As a reference point, NPS sold roughly KRW 0.3 trillion per day in January 2021 — a similar rebalancing pace today could imply meaningfully larger daily turnover. Notably, pension funds, including NPS, have continued buying through the recent correction rather than stepping back.
4. Regulatory Tightening on Leveraged ETFs
Assets under management in single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking names like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics nearly quadrupled since May 2026 before regulators moved to tighten retail access — a step expected to help moderate KOSPI volatility going forward after such a rapid buildup.
5. Korea's Growth Fundamentals
Korea's 2026E and 2027E GDP growth forecasts sit at 3.7% and 3.0% respectively, with semiconductor export growth expected to accelerate meaningfully in 2026. On the fiscal side, measures like fuel price caps and cash voucher distributions are cushioning households from higher oil prices, supporting continued growth in domestic demand alongside strong export momentum.
6. Valuation Reset
As of mid-July, KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E sits around 6x, down sharply from roughly 14-15x earlier this year, and near the lowest levels seen in the past two decades. That combination of low valuation and resilient fundamentals is what makes the current pullback look more like an opportunity than a warning sign.
Closing Takeaway
Between moderating foreign outflows, resilient pension fund buying, tightened leverage rules, and valuations near 20-year lows, Korea's macro backdrop provides real support underneath the memory-sector thesis. Next, the memory market itself — the supply-demand dynamics driving the NAND and DRAM supercycle.
7. Risk Reminder
High-volatility AI and memory-related stocks carry substantial trading risks. Market participants without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.
8. Post-Event Resources
Viewers can access further insights via Ross Dong's official website, tmipartner.com, or his YouTube channel, TMI Partner. You can also follow him on X as Ross Dong, or via Tothemoon as Ross美股投资. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app. Community participants may share demo trading plans and market observations tagging TB Live to join bonus activity rewards.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
