To The Moon

Gold has been drifting near its lows for about four weeks since bottoming in late June. Although the bulls' earlier rebound attempts made limited headway, the technical structure suggests the probability of a larger-degree rebound in the next phase still exists. This week's earnings season and the Fed's rate decision are expected to be decisive for overall market risk appetite.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(MESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(MNQmain)$

A very clear feature of gold this year is that its commodity nature has completely overshadowed its safe-haven nature; oil and gold have therefore often traded inversely on Middle East developments, while equity indices and crypto have shown a weak positive correlation with gold. Against this backdrop, gold's first tailwind this week is emerging: the U.S. has suspended its strikes on Iran, and oil gapped sharply lower. In fact, gold had already carved out some independent action over the past two weeks; once oil shifts into a range, the resistance to gold's upside will weaken further.

A second piece of good news — which may be partly priced in — comes from this week's Fed decision: FedWatch already points to “no change” as the base case. That means, at least in the short term, there is no rate-hike risk to threaten gold's upward repair; add to that the latest CPI and payrolls data, which both hint that year-end is the real hike juncture, and the macro backdrop offers some support. Traders should, of course, pay due attention to the Fed Chair's remarks and tone — many past roller-coaster moves have started there.

A third potential tailwind comes from gold building a small-degree bottom. The long-term descending trendline resistance since the start of the year and the neckline pressure of the double bottom are clustered within the 4170/4215 zone; if the bulls can break through, the technicals open up at least a shot at 4550+, and a pullback-test toward 4800 cannot be ruled out. As long as the core support at 4000 on the hourly chart holds, a failure to break lower will inevitably trigger short covering.

There are, of course, variables and uncertainties that could pressure gold — namely the arrival of U.S. earnings season. The earnings of the MAG7 and the memory-chip giants, and their choices on capital expenditure, will shape the direction of U.S. equities and global markets as a whole. Should U.S. stocks weaken markedly, gold could well retest its lows again. But on the time axis — as we discussed last week — it is the fourth-quarter risk that deserves attention; the third quarter leans toward correction rather than reversal.

All told, gold leans toward a rebound in the short term, and whether it can break higher over the next 1–3 weeks will determine Q3's main direction. The ideal scenario is a double-bottom breakout that completes its theoretical target and then turns back down — which would also fit the broader time-cycle read. That said, if it is still stuck by mid-August, downside pressure will need to be reassessed; after all, the long-term trend remains under pressure, and the expectation of an eventual drop to 3500–2800 to form a bottom is still in play.

Strategy

• Euro futures: the prior long was filled at 1.1420; with little progress over several weeks, no adjustment is made. Stop and targets unchanged — stop below 1.1300, targets at 1.1770 and 1.2420 (half each).

• Crude oil: with the long filled at the 70 level, all resting orders are done; average long entry is 75. The bounce has been strong but has not reached the first target, so the near term stays range-biased. The plan continues for now, with a possible stop-raise later. Stop currently at 60, targets at 95 and 115 (half each).

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2609(MCLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2609(QMmain)$

• U.S. equities (Nasdaq): last week's resting orders did not fill but remain live — limit-long the Nasdaq at 26080 and 24720 (half each), stop below 23000, targets at 30500 and 33800. GTC orders, valid until canceled.

• Gold: bullish on a rebound this week but lacking an ideal entry, so mostly watch and wait; on a double-bottom breakout, look for a spot to sell higher up afterward.

$E-Micro Gold - main 2608(MGCmain)$ $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ $1-Ounce Gold - main 2608(1OZmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$ $E-mini Silver - main 2609(QImain)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$

P.S. If a trade reaches its first target, the stop auto-adjusts to the entry level. Any post-fill adjustments will be updated in later notes.