π Noteworthy Points
Market Main Theme: Capex Concerns Have Not Yet Been Fully Priced In
The AI narrative is still present, but the market has begun to question the monetization ability of massive capex, putting pressure on valuations. The widespread decline following last week's earnings reports from several tech giants suggests that the valuation-killing logic of "full expectations + capex concerns" has not yet run its course. Earnings from similar tech stocks this week (META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) are likely to remain under pressure, with the prevailing direction still leaning toward Sell Call.
Watch Whether Post-Earnings Pullback Stocks Break Below Forecast Ranges
Tesla, Google, and INTC have already dropped significantly after earnings (TSLA 380β313, GOOGL 352β320, INTC 105β92). If they fall further below the lower bounds of their implied volatility ranges this week, range forecasts should be adjusted downward in a timely manner, and the safety margins for corresponding Sell Put strike prices should be reassessed.
Two New Variables This Week
SKHY (new, highest IV in the market at 124%): Hynix reports earnings on 7/29. Pre-earnings IV is off the charts, with extremely rich premiums, making this a core Sell Put observation target for the week. However, high IV = high expected volatility (implied weekly move of 14.39%), meaning assignment risk is also magnified, so strike prices need to leave ample safety margins.
7/29 FOMC: The market holds expectations for a rate hike, compounded by inflationary pressures from rising oil prices β with FOMC and a dense earnings week overlapping, macro volatility could amplify actual price swings across all tickers.
SPCX: Simulated Strike Prices at 95/150, But Trend Is Unfavorable
For SPCX, the simulated Sell Put/Call strike prices are set at 95/150, but the current downtrend is unfavorable for Sell Put (negative Gamma, breaking below 100 would tilt toward 80). Although premiums on this ticker are rich, directional risk is high, so it is advisable to keep position sizes small or use spreads to limit risk.
β οΈ Educational sharing, not investment advice. Investing involves risk.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
