Going into Figma’s Q2 2026 earnings (Aug. 5), expectations are high because management already guided above Wall Street estimates last quarter.
Consensus expectations
* Revenue: Around $350-352 million, roughly 40-41% YoY growth.
* EPS: Around $0.04 per share.
What I’m watching
Bullish case (most important)
* Revenue above $350M.
* Continued 40%+ growth.
* Strong enterprise seat expansion.
* AI products (Figma Make, Weave, Dev Mode) contributing meaningful paid adoption.
* Q3 and full-year guidance raised again.
If all of those happen, I think the stock could easily see a 10–20% move higher because investors are still debating whether Figma deserves a premium valuation.
Bearish case
Even if Figma beats estimates, the stock could fall if:
* Q3 guidance is only in line.
* Management hints that AI growth is slowing.
* Operating expenses or stock-based compensation continue rising faster than expected.
* Gross margins disappoint.
My forecast
Based on the recent momentum and the company’s last earnings report, I think there’s about:
* 70% chance Figma beats revenue and EPS.
* 60% chance it raises guidance.
* 55–60% chance the stock finishes higher after earnings.
However, because expectations are already elevated, a “beat but no raise” could still send the stock down.
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