To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

I think these two lines are all the headline this article needs today. No need to analyze any other stocks. SPY has rallied to 775 — just close your eyes and pick any stock, and you'd make money.

SPY dropped a massive block trade on the market — the August 21-expiry 775 call $SPY 20260821 775.0 CALL$ opened 50,000 contracts (buy-side). And today, more large bullish call trades continued to open during the session: 49,700 contracts of the August 14-expiry 775 call l$SPY 20260814 775.0 CALL$ , and 20,000 contracts of the September 18-expiry 820 call $SPY 20260918 820.0 CALL$ .

Two-word review: Baby accounts are awesome. Apparently, Trump isn't satisfied with the 7 million baby accounts opened as of July — he's probably aiming for 50 million by the midterms.

Judging by the August 14-expiry block trade, this short-squeeze rally could last two weeks at the longer end, or one week at the shorter end. It's a small bull run — cherish it while it lasts.

That said, the market rally is highly abnormal — and a rally driven by a short squeeze is naturally abnormal. DeepSeek's big token cost cuts didn't crash U.S. stocks — instead, they fueled a surge.

The fake reason for the rally is that "the AI investment thesis is still intact." But the real reason is that retail investors have been flushed out. The selling accelerated in the last week of July, with retail stock selling hitting the highest level since 2022. I have no doubt Wall Street will replicate this again in the second half of the year.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$

It's not just SPY with 50,000 contracts of bullish calls — MSFT has them too. The October-expiry 510 call opened 52,000 contracts, but the structure was: selling the August 21-expiry 460 call $MSFT 20260821 460.0 CALL$  and buying the 510 call $MSFT 20261016 510.0 CALL$  .

Prior to this, many bullish call positions on MSFT had already been closed for profits — for example, the August 21-expiry 500 call. I understand that MSFT bulls probably felt the rally had gone far enough and a pullback was due. But they didn't expect SPY to pull them right back up again.

$SpaceX(SPCX)$

I'll go out on a limb and guess that SPCX won't drop on earnings — it might actually rise, because there are too many shorts, and that's plenty of fuel for an upside move. The $100+ billion selling pressure is certainly scary, but as a well-known fact, it's probably mostly priced in by now.

Speaking of which, SPCX's sell calls look extremely lucrative — this week's 200 call $SPCX 20260807 200.0 CALL$  has an annualized yield of 49%. Yet the block trades have consistently stayed around the 330 strike — suggesting even the sellers are afraid of being used as fuel for a short squeeze.

$SK hynix(SKHY)$

I originally thought that after Hynix's U.S. listing, options trading volume would rival Nvidia's, with block trades popping up left and right. But so far, it's even lagging behind DRAM — maybe because it hasn't been listed long enough, making it hard to gauge key levels.

The options data on Hynix gives off a vibe that "the village hasn't gotten internet yet" — still heavily bearish. For example, buying the November-expiry 130 put and selling the January 2027-expiry 250 call. It feels like a Korean company getting bullied by the U.S. market.

But as it turns out, as long as the S&P rises, everything rises.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

This market rally is defying gravity — you can tell from the block trades how reluctant individual stocks are to follow. NVIDIA had a massive bearish block opening — 69,000 contracts of the September 4-expiry 170 put $NVDA 20260904 170.0 PUT$ . In other words, before September 4, it's going to be hard for NVIDIA to break below 170.

There was also a bearish structure opened on Monday: buying the September 18-expiry 210 put $NVDA 20260918 210.0 PUT$ and selling the September 18-expiry 170 put $NVDA 20260904 170.0 PUT$ . Same view — it won't break below 170, but it also shouldn't be above 200 before September.

On a side note: AMD earnings don't look bearish. I've already seen large bullish weekly option trades $AMD 20260807 495.0 CALL$ — I honestly didn't expect the calls to already be in profit before earnings are even released. For a safer play, selling the 400 put $AMD 20260807 400.0 PUT$ looks quite suitable.

$Intel(INTC)$

Intel broke above 95 and held 100 — essentially signaling a reversal of the bearish trend. Institutions are opening long-dated call options $INTC 20270319 100.0 CALL$.

Speaking of the two stocks Trump personally named, I have to mention $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ . While it's hard to say where the upside call targets are, selling put options should be relatively low-risk.