To The Moon

Gold is displaying a seemingly counterintuitive pattern.

As signs of easing tensions emerge in the Middle East, gold has staged one of its strongest rebounds in months.

On August 6, spot gold climbed as high as $4,271 per ounce, its highest level since June 18 and its fourth consecutive session of gains. U.S. gold futures traded near $4,330 after recording their largest one-day increase since February. (Reuters)

Gold-mining stocks showed even greater momentum.

On August 5, gold futures rose approximately 3.5% and reclaimed their 50-day moving average. The $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ jumped about 7.3%, while $Newmont(NEM)$, $Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$ and $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ also posted strong gains.

That raises an obvious question:

If geopolitical risks are easing, shouldn’t safe-haven demand for gold be falling?

So why is gold rallying?

The answer is that the market’s focus is shifting from geopolitical risk to interest-rate expectations.

1. Why Could Peace Talks Be Positive for Gold?

The current transmission mechanism looks like this:

A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz → lower oil prices → weaker inflation pressure → reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike → lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar → higher gold prices.

Markets are closely watching negotiations involving the United States, Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz and a possible ceasefire.

If an agreement allows shipping through the strait to normalize, the risk to global oil supplies could decline, bringing down both energy prices and transportation costs.

This matters for gold in three ways.

Lower Oil Prices Reduce Inflation Pressure

The earlier escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns that rising energy costs could trigger another wave of U.S. inflation.

Persistent inflation would force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated—or potentially raise them again.

As oil prices retreat, concerns about a second inflation wave are beginning to ease.

According to Reuters, the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike fell from 67% two days earlier to 55%. (Reuters)

Gold does not generate interest.

When Treasury yields rise, holding gold becomes less attractive relative to cash and bonds. When rate-hike expectations weaken and real yields decline, gold becomes more competitive.

The Dollar and Treasury Yields Are Falling

Gold is priced in U.S. dollars.

When the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for investors using other currencies, which usually supports demand. Falling Treasury yields also reduce the relative return advantage of cash and bonds.

This rally can therefore be understood as the market correcting an overly aggressive interest-rate outlook.

Easing tensions reduce some safe-haven demand, but they also lower oil prices, inflation expectations and rate-hike risks.

For now, the interest-rate effect appears to be stronger.

Technical Breakouts Triggered Additional Buying

Gold futures have moved back above their 50-day moving average for the first time since March 17. GDX has also reclaimed this technical level.

For trend-following funds, a moving-average breakout can trigger short covering and systematic buying, amplifying the rally.

The August 5 move was therefore not driven by fundamentals alone.

Changing macro expectations, technical breakouts and previously accumulated short positions all contributed to the rebound.

2. Has Gold Re-entered a Bull Market?

It is still too early to make that conclusion.

Gold has experienced extreme volatility in 2026.

Prices briefly traded above $5,500 in January before falling below $4,000 in late June. Even after recovering toward $4,300, gold remains well below its early-year record.

The World Gold Council believes that if global growth remains moderate, inflation declines gradually and the Federal Reserve makes only limited policy adjustments, gold could continue fluctuating around the $4,100 level.

A renewed uptrend would likely require clearer catalysts, such as:

• Materially weaker employment and economic data

• A broader reversal of rate-hike expectations

• Renewed long-term inflows into gold ETFs

• Another escalation in geopolitical risks

The World Gold Council’s scenario analysis suggests that $4,500 could become the first major resistance level if the upward trend resumes. A move back toward $5,000 would require stronger and more persistent macroeconomic support. (World Gold Council)

The current setup is better described as:

Gold is recovering from a deep correction and testing whether investors are ready to trade a more dovish interest-rate outlook again.

Moving above the 50-day average is encouraging.

Holding that level and breaking through $4,500 would provide stronger evidence that this is more than a short-term rebound.

3. Central Banks Are Buying Gold Again

Beyond short-term interest-rate expectations, gold continues to receive support from a more stable source: central banks.

World Gold Council data show that total global gold demand reached 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, broadly unchanged from the same period last year.

First-half demand totaled 2,522 tonnes, up 2% year over year, while the value of that demand reached a record $380 billion.

Central banks purchased a net 289 tonnes of gold during the second quarter, a clear recovery from the first quarter. Bar and coin demand remained solid at 307 tonnes.

High prices have weighed on jewelry consumption, but they have not significantly weakened investment or central-bank demand. (World Gold Council)

Gold ETF flows, however, have not fully recovered.

Global gold ETFs reduced their holdings by 45 tonnes in the second quarter, while June alone recorded approximately $8.9 billion in outflows.

For the first half as a whole, global gold ETFs still attracted around $8 billion in net inflows, but regional performance diverged sharply:

• Asian gold ETFs received approximately $12 billion in net inflows

• North American gold ETFs recorded around $7.7 billion in net outflows, their weakest first-half performance since 2013

(World Gold Council)

These numbers tell us two things.

First, central banks and Asian investors continue to provide long-term support for gold.

Second, North American institutional investors have not yet returned in force.

If U.S. employment data weaken, interest-rate expectations fall further and North American gold ETF flows turn positive, the rally could become more sustainable.

If ETF outflows continue, however, the move may remain dependent on short-term trading and short covering, leaving gold vulnerable near $4,500.

4. Why Are Gold Miners Rising Faster Than Gold?

A higher gold price directly increases miners’ revenue.

Their production costs, however, do not rise at the same rate. That gives mining companies operating leverage to gold prices.

Assume that a miner’s all-in cost is $1,600 per ounce:

• If gold rises from $4,000 to $4,400, the gold price increases by 10%

• Profit per ounce rises from $2,400 to $2,800, an increase of nearly 17%

That is why mining stocks can outperform the underlying metal during a gold rally.

This particular move also contains an additional potential benefit.

One reason gold is rising is that oil prices are falling. Diesel, electricity and transportation are major costs for gold miners.

Mining companies could therefore benefit from both sides:

• Higher realized gold prices

• Lower energy and transportation costs

That helps explain why GDX gained more than 7% while gold rose approximately 3%–4%.

The risk, of course, is also greater.

Mine shutdowns, cost overruns, declining ore grades, tax changes and political risks can cause a mining stock to underperform even when gold prices are rising.

5. How Should Investors Differentiate U.S.-Listed Gold Assets?

Direct Gold Exposure: GLD and IAU

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ and $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ primarily track physical gold prices.

They offer relatively direct exposure to gold without the production and operational risks associated with individual mines.

If the main thesis is a weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields or increased portfolio protection, GLD and IAU provide the clearest exposure.

Gold-Mining ETF: GDX

$VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ holds major gold companies including Newmont, Agnico Eagle and Wheaton Precious Metals.

When gold enters a sustained uptrend, miners’ profit growth can exceed the increase in gold prices, giving GDX greater upside potential.

But if gold falls again—or if labor, energy and equipment costs rise—GDX could also decline more sharply than GLD.

Put simply:

GLD trades the gold price.

GDX trades the gold price, mining costs and corporate execution at the same time.

Newmont: NEM

$Newmont(NEM)$ is one of the world’s largest publicly traded gold producers and a major component of GDX.

Newmont’s average realized gold price reached $4,414 per ounce in the second quarter. Free cash flow totaled $2.2 billion, while the company ended the period with approximately $3.4 billion in net cash.

However, all-in sustaining costs rose to $1,621 per ounce, partly because of an earthquake-related shutdown at the Cadia mine, higher sustaining capital expenditure and other operating-cost pressures. (Newmont)

Newmont offers strong exposure to rising gold prices because of its scale and cash flow.

Its risk is that the company operates a large portfolio of assets, meaning problems at a major mine can materially affect production and costs.

Agnico Eagle Mines: AEM

$Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$ has outperformed Newmont during this rally, partly because of its more consistent cost control and asset quality.

The company produced approximately 856,000 ounces of gold in the second quarter, with all-in sustaining costs of $1,459 per ounce.

Free cash flow reached $1.34 billion, and the company ended the quarter with net cash of approximately $3.27 billion.

That combination of operational discipline and balance-sheet strength gives AEM considerable earnings leverage when gold prices remain high. (Agnico Eagle)

However, management expects full-year production to come in near the lower end of its 3.3 million–3.5 million ounce guidance range. Investors should continue monitoring adjustments at the Canadian Malartic complex.

Wheaton Precious Metals: WPM

$Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ operates under a precious-metals streaming model.

The company provides upfront funding to miners in exchange for the right to purchase a portion of future gold and silver production at predetermined prices.

Because WPM does not directly bear most mining operating costs, it generally faces less cost inflation and capital-expenditure risk than a traditional mining company.

WPM is scheduled to report its second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on August 6.

Investors should watch gold and silver deliveries, cash flow, long-term production guidance and whether management continues adding new streaming agreements. (Wheaton Precious Metals)

6. Is It Too Late to Chase the Gold Rally?

Three signals will determine whether the move can continue.

First: U.S. Payrolls and Treasury Yields

The July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday.

If employment continues to cool, Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations could fall further, giving gold a chance to challenge $4,500.

If employment significantly exceeds expectations—or wage growth accelerates—the market could revive its inflation and rate-hike concerns, causing gold to give back some of its gains quickly.

Second: Whether Gold Can Hold Its 50-Day Moving Average

A one-day breakout only tells us that the trend is attempting to recover.

Gold needs to remain above its 50-day average for several sessions and attract buyers during pullbacks before we can conclude that medium-term capital is returning.

If prices quickly fall below the moving average again, the rally may still be driven mainly by short covering and technical trading.

Third: Whether North American Gold ETFs Return to Inflows

Central-bank purchases can provide long-term support, but gold will likely need renewed participation from North American and European institutions to challenge its early-year highs.

A sustained shift from ETF outflows to inflows would provide a more reliable confirmation than a single day of strong price action.

Tiger Radar’s View

The most important development in this gold rally is the change in the market’s dominant narrative.

During the previous stage, the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher. Investors feared another inflation shock and possible Fed rate hikes, which placed pressure on gold through higher interest rates.

Now, peace negotiations are lowering oil prices and inflation expectations. As the probability of another rate hike declines, gold is attracting capital again.

That explains the seemingly contradictory market reaction:

Geopolitical risks are easing, yet gold is rising.

Oil prices are falling, yet gold miners are outperforming.

For $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ and $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$, the key variables remain the dollar, Treasury yields and long-term fund flows.

For $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$, $Newmont(NEM)$ and $Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$, investors also need to evaluate costs, production and mine-level execution.

The breakout deserves attention, but after a one-day gain of 3%–4%, the risk of chasing prices has also increased.

The next major test will be whether Friday’s payroll report further weakens rate-hike expectations—and whether gold can hold its 50-day moving average before challenging $4,500.

The entire story can be summarized in one sentence:

Gold is shifting from a “war hedge” to an “interest-rate turning point” trade. The breakout has arrived, but payrolls, Treasury yields and ETF flows still need to confirm it.

Today’s Poll

With gold back near $4,300, which U.S. market thesis do you prefer?

A. Buy $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ for direct gold exposure
B. Bet on the earnings leverage of $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$, $Newmont(NEM)$ and $Agnico Eagle Mines(AEM)$
C. Wait for Friday’s payroll report to confirm that rate-hike expectations are falling
D. Treat the current move as a technical rebound, with gold likely to face resistance near $4,500

What do you think? After rallying despite easing geopolitical tensions, will gold break above $4,500 first—or fall back toward $4,000?

Disclaimer: This article is for market discussion only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold and gold-mining stocks can be highly volatile, while geopolitical negotiations, employment data and interest-rate expectations may change rapidly. Please refer to official disclosures and real-time market data before making any investment decisions.