Elon Musk: A Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data is the big test, but Wednesday's ADP small employment report showed only 44,000 new jobs — missing expectations — which has made the market less certain about a September rate hike. It's not out of the question that SPY could retrace to 760 over the next two weeks. After that pullback, it's expected to remain in a high-level consolidation range.
All seven storage companies have now reported earnings: Samsung, Hynix, Micron, SNDK, Kioxia, WDC, and STX. There's nothing wrong with the earnings themselves — the only problem is that prices got too expensive and got in the way of the cloud providers. How could a Korean storage company raise prices and block U.S. cloud companies?
So the super-cycle of storage price increases ends here. After one to two months of valuation adjustment, the stock will certainly rise again — after all, storage is the real estate of data. The population may shrink, but data only grows. And that's not even counting physical-space data yet — which is an entirely different weight class.
So go ahead and sell puts — upside may be capped, but the floor is high.
Options activity is intense. Overall, it's not easy to go up right now, but it's also not easy to go down. The massive $100 billion lock-up expiry didn't trigger a sell-off — which basically suggests the current price is about right. Sell Put: the September 18-expiry 70 put$SPCX 20260918 70.0 PUT$ . However, note that there's a September 11-expiry 70 put$SPCX 20260911 70.0 PUT$ buy-side opening.
On August 3, someone on X said now is a good time to buy, and Elon Musk strongly agreed. "Good time to buy" suggests a big drop is unlikely — but it doesn't necessarily mean it will go up either. I think it's a very suitable environment for the Sell Put strategy.
The latest victim of the SPY short squeeze is NVDA. Normally, NVDA would not have been likely to exceed 207 this week, but since Monday the short squeeze has been forcing Sell Call institutions to keep rolling — from 210 to 215, then to 220, and now to 225.
Last week's 170 Sell Put block was closed out and rolled to the 190 Sell Put $NVDA 20260904 190.0 PUT$ . A trillion-dollar company has essentially become a stabilization tool for the S&P 500 — which continues to be favorable for the Sell Put strategy.
I continue to be bullish on Intel hitting a trillion-dollar market cap this year. One strategy to consider is the deep long call approach used by Congress' top trader Pelosi — buying the March 2027-expiry 50 call $INTC 20270319 50.0 CALL$ . It ties up less capital, has lower risk than at-the-money calls, allows you to take assignment on the downside, and still comes with leverage.
Gold's technical breakout above key levels has attracted attention — which probably means it won't be easy to rally much higher anytime soon. A long-dated Sell Put block trade opened on the 350 put $GLD 20270617 350.0 PUT$ . You can wait for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data and see if an opportunity presents itself.
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