To The Moon

SpaceX Rallies 6% After Its Lockup Expiration: Is the Next Opportunity in Space Stocks?

SpaceX has finally given the public space sector something it has long lacked: a genuine valuation anchor.

On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading. Investors feared that employees and early shareholders would rush to sell, yet after plunging nearly 14% the previous day, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ rebounded 6.1% to close at $114.92.

This does not mean the selling pressure is over. By December 8, tradable shares could rise to roughly 40% of SpaceX’s total shares outstanding, leaving the stock exposed to further supply and volatility. Reuters

But the more interesting signal came from the rest of the sector.

$Redwire(RDW)$ gained about 10.3%, while $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ rose around 6.7%. Investors did not abandon commercial space after the SpaceX lockup expiration. Instead, they began looking for the next beneficiaries across the space economy.

The key question is shifting from “When can investors buy SpaceX?” to:

Which companies are already winning contracts, generating revenue and building the infrastructure required for the commercial space economy?

The Space Trade Is Expanding Beyond Rockets

Rockets are only the first step.

Once more satellites and spacecraft enter orbit, the industry also needs satellite manufacturing, communication networks, solar arrays, ground stations, data processing, in-orbit services and lunar transportation.

That creates five major investment themes:

• Launch and satellite systems: $Rocket Lab(RKLB)$

• Space infrastructure and components: $Redwire(RDW)$

• Direct-to-device satellite connectivity: $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS)$

• Lunar transportation and deep-space communications: $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$

• Earth observation and satellite data: $Planet Labs(PL)$

These companies often rally together, but they are not interchangeable. Their revenue models, capital requirements and execution risks are very different.

Rocket Lab: The Sector Leader, but Expectations Are High

$Rocket Lab(RKLB)$ is often described as the “next SpaceX,” but the company is no longer just a small-launch provider.

Its operations now cover Electron launches, the HASTE hypersonic test platform, satellite manufacturing, spacecraft components, optical systems and mission operations. Rocket Lab is gradually becoming an integrated space contractor.

In the first quarter, revenue reached $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year. Gross margin rose to 38.2%, while backlog reached $2.2 billion. The company signed 31 Electron and HASTE launch contracts, along with five contracts involving its larger Neutron rocket. Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab also secured a $397 million U.S. Space Force contract covering satellite design, a Neutron launch and subsequent mission operations. The deal shows that the company is moving from launching other companies’ satellites to delivering entire space systems. Rocket Lab

Its strengths are clear:

• A proven launch record

• Exposure to both launch and satellite systems

• Growing defense and government contracts

• Significant upside if Neutron enters service successfully

The problem is valuation.

With a market value already exceeding $45 billion, RKLB is pricing in a successful Neutron program, continued contract growth and strong execution. The company reports second-quarter results after the close on August 10.

The most important questions will be whether backlog continues to expand, whether Neutron remains on schedule and how much cash the company is spending to support growth.

RKLB remains the core space stock to watch, but chasing it immediately before earnings carries substantial risk.

Redwire: The Picks-and-Shovels Opportunity

$Redwire(RDW)$ may be one of the most interesting “space infrastructure” plays.

The company supplies solar arrays, spacecraft payloads, navigation systems, space structures and microgravity research equipment. Rather than competing directly in the rocket market, Redwire provides essential equipment to multiple missions and contractors.

Second-quarter revenue reached a record $117.1 million. Gross margin improved to 27.8%, backlog rose to $542.1 million and adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed to $3.2 million. The company ended the quarter with $607.8 million in liquidity. Redwire

Redwire also announced that its SpaceMD business plans to use SpaceX’s Starfall spacecraft for a 2028 commercial mission carrying as many as 32 pharmaceutical research payloads into orbit. The mission will study potential treatments related to cancer, diabetes, obesity and insulin in a microgravity environment. Redwire

This highlights an important second-order opportunity.

If SpaceX continues lowering the cost of reaching orbit, companies providing equipment, experiments and in-orbit services could benefit without taking on the full cost of developing their own rockets.

RDW’s smaller market capitalization gives it greater upside sensitivity than RKLB, but also greater volatility. The company is still not consistently profitable and could face future dilution.

RDW offers strong order-driven upside, but a 10% one-day rally is not automatically a reason to chase.

Intuitive Machines: More Than a Lunar Landing Stock

$Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ was once traded mainly around lunar launches and landing outcomes.

That business is now becoming more diversified.

Following its acquisition of Lanteris, Intuitive Machines has expanded into satellite manufacturing, deep-space communications, ground systems and defense projects. It is attempting to become a broader space infrastructure contractor rather than a single-mission lunar company.

First-quarter revenue reached $186.7 million, nearly triple the prior-year level. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $2.7 million, and backlog reached approximately $1.1 billion.

Management expects 2026 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion and positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Intuitive Machines

Its main opportunities include:

• NASA lunar transportation contracts

• U.S. Space Force and defense satellite programs

• Lunar and deep-space communication networks

However, revenue remains heavily dependent on government contracts. Delays, contract timing and mission failures can create sharp earnings and stock-price volatility.

LUNR is best approached around contract awards, earnings and mission milestones rather than as a passive long-term holding without close monitoring.

AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs: Connectivity Versus Data

AST SpaceMobile: The Largest Market, but the Highest Execution Risk

$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS)$ is building a satellite network designed to connect ordinary smartphones directly to 4G and 5G services without requiring specialized hardware.

If the network is deployed successfully, ASTS could address a global mobile communications market much larger than the launch industry alone.

But expectations are already extremely high.

Investors should track:

• BlueBird satellite launch numbers

• Actual network coverage

• Revenue-sharing agreements with telecom operators

• Constellation capital expenditure

• Future equity issuance and shareholder dilution

ASTS may have one of the highest potential ceilings in the sector, but it also faces some of the greatest deployment, financing and valuation risks.

Planet Labs: Turning Satellite Images Into Recurring Revenue

$Planet Labs(PL)$ operates a large Earth-observation satellite fleet and sells imagery and analytical data to governments, agriculture companies, insurers, defense organizations and commercial customers.

Its latest quarterly revenue reached $94 million, up 42% year over year. Remaining performance obligations rose 81% to $816 million, while backlog increased 72% to more than $906 million. Planet Labs

PL is less dependent on the outcome of any single rocket launch. Its model is closer to a recurring data and software business.

As AI improves satellite-image analysis for defense intelligence, environmental monitoring and agriculture, Planet Labs could become an important application-layer beneficiary of the space economy.

The risk is that its valuation already reflects substantial growth. Government and commercial contract expansion will need to remain strong to support it.

What If You Prefer a Space ETF?

Individual space stocks can fall more than 10% in a single session following a failed launch, delayed satellite deployment or dilutive capital raise.

For investors who believe in the broader theme but do not want to depend on one company, three ETFs deserve attention.

UFO: The Most Direct Commercial Space Basket

UFO is the closest of the three to a diversified commercial space portfolio.

As of August 6, its holdings included:

• $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS)$: 4.41%

• $Rocket Lab(RKLB)$: 3.88%

• $Planet Labs(PL)$: 3.81%

• $SpaceX(SPCX)$: 3.57%

• $Iridium Communications(IRDM)$: 3.50%

It also owns companies involved in satellite communications, positioning and navigation, including Viasat, EchoStar, Garmin and Trimble.

UFO holds 67 companies, manages approximately $610 million and charges a 0.75% expense ratio. Procure ETF

The diversified portfolio can reduce company-specific risk, but it also means that UFO may rise less than the most speculative space stocks during a strong rally.

ARKX: Space Plus Defense Technology

ARKX is actively managed and now covers space, defense, drones, robotics, AI and advanced manufacturing.

Its exposure can include SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Kratos, L3Harris and AeroVironment, alongside technology companies such as AMD, Amazon and Alphabet.

ARKX was renamed the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF in November 2025, reflecting its broader mandate. ARK Invest

It may suit investors who are bullish on both SpaceX and next-generation defense technology. However, its returns also depend heavily on ARK’s security selection and portfolio changes.

ROKT: Lower Space Purity, More Mature Companies

ROKT combines space exploration with deep-sea technology and traditional aerospace and defense.

Its holdings include companies such as RTX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, HEICO and Teledyne, as well as marine engineering businesses.

That makes ROKT less sensitive to speculative commercial-space rallies, but potentially more stable because a greater portion of its holdings are mature, profitable companies. State Street

Tiger Radar’s View

SpaceX has brought commercial space back into the mainstream market narrative, but the best opportunities may not be limited to SpaceX itself.

My current watchlist framework is:

• RKLB for sector leadership and integrated launch capabilities

• RDW for smaller-cap infrastructure and contract upside

• LUNR for government orders and mission catalysts

• ASTS for direct-to-device satellite deployment

• PL for AI-powered satellite data commercialization

• UFO for broader commercial-space exposure

• ARKX for a combined space and defense-tech strategy

The next two major signals are straightforward:

1. Can Rocket Lab’s August 10 earnings support its valuation through stronger revenue, backlog and Neutron progress?

2. Will further SpaceX share unlocks create renewed selling pressure across the sector?

If RKLB delivers a stable report and SpaceX avoids another sharp breakdown, capital could continue rotating into RDW, LUNR, ASTS and PL.

Commercial space may become a major long-term investment theme, but this is still a high-valuation, capital-intensive and event-driven sector. Position size matters.

Today’s Poll

How would you prefer to gain exposure to the commercial space boom?

A. Buy SPCX and bet directly on SpaceX’s long-term dominance
B. Choose RKLB / RDW for greater upside sensitivity
C. Focus on specialized plays such as ASTS / LUNR / PL
D. Use UFO / ARKX to diversify company-specific risk

Which company do you think has the best chance of becoming the next $100 billion space business?

Disclaimer: This article is for market discussion only and does not constitute investment advice. Commercial space companies face significant risks, including high valuations, persistent losses, launch failures, project delays, government-budget changes and shareholder dilution. Please refer to official disclosures and real-time market data before making investment decisions.