Once Rates Peak, Gold and Silver Move First
It wasn’t just tech stocks that rallied this week. Gold, silver and base metals all came roaring back.
Gold gained more than 7% for the week and climbed back above $4,300. Silver surged nearly 10% toward $63, while copper returned above $14,000 per ton.
To me, the key change is simple:
The market is starting to price in the idea that U.S. rates may have already peaked.
Payrolls Removed the Biggest Headwind
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, versus expectations for an increase of around 80,000.
After the data, expectations for further tightening dropped sharply, while the dollar weakened and Treasury yields moved lower.
That matters a lot for gold.
The biggest pressure on gold over the past few months was not a lack of safe-haven demand. It was high oil prices, sticky inflation and the risk that the Fed could tighten again.
Now the market is starting to trade the opposite setup:
A less hawkish Fed + lower Treasury yields + a weaker dollar.
So gold is not suddenly rallying because of a new story.
The old bearish story is simply starting to disappear.
Why Is Silver Moving Even Faster?
Because once investors become confident in gold’s direction, they naturally look for more beta.
Gold is mainly a macro asset. Silver has both precious-metal and industrial-demand exposure, which means it usually moves harder once the trend turns.
That is exactly what happened this week: gold gained around 7%, while silver was closer to 10%.
Copper is slightly different.
It benefits from a weaker dollar, but it is also trading a longer-term story around AI data centers, grid expansion, EV demand and limited mine supply growth.
So there are really two trades happening at the same time:
Gold and silver are trading peak rates. Copper and base metals are trading peak rates plus structural supply tightness.
How Long Can This Rally Last?
I don’t think the move is finished yet, but this is no longer the place to chase blindly.
The next major tests are U.S. CPI and the September Fed meeting.
As long as the macro setup remains:
weaker employment, no renewed inflation shock, and no further Fed tightening,
gold and silver could easily stay in play through September, and possibly into Q4 if the trend strengthens.
But I would separate the three trades:
Gold has the cleanest trend.
Silver has the highest beta.
Copper and base metals offer more upside, but are also more exposed to recession risk.
If the U.S. achieves a soft landing, all three can keep rising.
If growth deteriorates into a real recession, gold could continue higher while copper may be the first to get hit.
So the real question is no longer whether gold can rise for another day.
It is this:
If U.S. rates have truly peaked, the move back into gold, silver and commodities may be more than a short-term bounce. It could be the start of a new asset rotation.
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