To The Moon

One-sentence theme: AI bulls and bears are in a direct face-off — Lenovo's AI order explosion (bullish) vs Burry's broad-based AI shorting (bearish). But looking one layer deeper, the shorts are really betting on "compute rental prices falling." The strategic tone remains unchanged: position via Sell Puts on dips, don't chase highs.

I. Sentiment Focus: Bulls vs Bears

🟢 Bulls: Lenovo AI Orders Surge

Lenovo's Q1 net profit broke through $1 billion, with AI server backlog orders reaching $54 billion.

This drove DELL and HPE higher in pre-market trading. → DELL is a good Sell Put candidate ahead of earnings (riding the AI server demand theme).

🔴 Bears: Burry Strikes Again, Calling "NVIDIA = Enron"

Michael Burry shorted: NBIS (247), Micron (924), ORCL (152), and also shorted SOXX.

He compared NVIDIA's AI expansion to Enron's accounting scandal in 2011 — pointing directly to off-balance-sheet liabilities / unactivated leases in AI infrastructure.

II. Looking One Layer Deeper: What Is Burry Really Betting On?

On the surface, he's shorting "chip stocks," but in reality, he's shorting "compute rental prices."

The stocks he shorted — NBIS (compute rental provider), Micron (storage), ORCL (cloud/compute), SOXX (semiconductors) — all share a common lifeline: "compute/storage rental rates and selling prices."

The logic: Compute rental prices = demand (training + inference) vs supply (new cards ramping + data centers + power). The bears are betting that Blackwell volume ramps + capacity oversupply → rental/selling prices fall → earnings at these companies collapse (the fiber-optic 2000-style script).

Once CME launches compute futures on 10/5, the shorting path will become crystal clear — at that point, watching compute futures prices will reveal who's right.

III. Notable Block Trades (With Interpretation)

• Micron: 8/28-expiry 1030 Sell Call $MU 20260828 1030.0 CALL$, 1,959 contracts → capping the upside → a range-bound oscillation play on the shorted chip stock.

• KWEB: 9/25-expiry 25 Sell Put$KWEB 20260925 25.0 PUT$ , 22,000 contracts → betting it won't break below 25 before the end of September (floor support / willing to take assignment).

• KWEB: 8/28-expiry 27 Buy Put $KWEB 20260828 27.0 PUT$, 36,500 contracts → bearish: betting it breaks below 27.

Summary: Micron is capped on the upside (bearish), and both KWEB trades point to limited downside (25 Sell Put as a floor + 27 Buy Put betting on a drop) → China ADRs skewed bearish.

IV. Macro Themes · Conventional Approaches

• Anthropic IPO (late September or early October): Likely scheduled after Triple Witching on 9/18. A trillion-dollar giant's IPO has significant near-term market impact (capital may be reallocated from other mega-caps ahead of the listing, but the AI atmosphere tends to heat up first).

• Gold Sell Put: Increased probability of no rate hike is bullish for gold. The trend is strong, but a pullback is likely after the sharp rally — watch for Sell Put opportunities on pullbacks.

• SPY / S&P Sell Put (Policy tailwind): Trump Account passive buying (7 million accounts already, default SPYM) — S&P has already risen 3% → structural tailwind. For those with a medium-to-long-term bullish view, Sell Puts on dips are a better alternative to chasing highs.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a pre-market information summary and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk; naked selling carries asymmetric risk. Only operate with a willingness to hold the shares at the strike price, manage position sizes, and set stop-losses. Investing involves risk.