Many investors assume a new high means the market is expensive and due for a fall. It’s the opposite. Markets hit new highs because they’re bullish, and a new high can be broken many times in a single year. A new high isn’t a ceiling. It’s proof the market has the energy to keep breaking through. You can see the track record of S&P 500 making numerous new highs in the past years.
Look at new highs versus new lows on the NYSE (not the S&P 500). We’re seeing more highs than lows, and that’s strength, not weakness. In a bear market, new lows outnumber new highs. And if valuations were truly overstretched, we’d see new highs spike far above new lows, the way they did in February, just before the Iran War AI trades corrected heavily over the last two months, and that flushed out a lot of leverage and excess from the market. Stocks that are no longer over-stretched have less reason to correct further.
Now that the S&P 500 is back at new highs, investors are split. One camp breathes a sigh of relief, calling the drawdown over and the market ready for another bull leg. The other sees stretched valuations and stays bearish.
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