Dow Jones Futures fell roughly -0.80% to 53,013.00.
S&P 500 Futures fell about -0.31% to 7,698.25.
Nasdaq Futures hovered near flat at roughly 29,536.25 amid surging oil prices, with Brent crude futures at $98.74 a barrel (as of writing).
This week's producer inflation reports will be crucial and likely set the tone when the FOMC team convenes next week where interest rate will be tabled for a hike, yet again.
US market drags down by mixed US reports !
@JC888：
US stocks posted modest weekly gains for a 2nd straight week, but finished lower on Fri, 04 Sep 2026 - after a much hotter-than-expected August jobs report revived expectations of a Fed rate hike later in September. On Friday: DJIA declined -0.51% to close at 53,414.25, ending lower at -0.09% for the week. S&P 500 decreased -0.38% to 7,718.60, but managed a slight weekly gain of +0.27%. Nasdaq fell -0.29% on Friday to 26,506.99, locking in a weekly gain of +0.56%. Key Market Drivers. Top 3 catalysts for the week were: Memory & chip stocks performed strongly (led by names like $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $Western Digital(WDC)$ & $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$), while megacap and EVs faced headwinds, including a -6% drop in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ following a regulatory probe announcement. Strong employment data pushed US 10-year Treasury yield up to around 4.78%, igniting debate over whether the Fed might adjust interest rates at its upcoming September FOMC meeting - as touched on in my 03 Sep 2026 post - Surge US Bond Yields Crushing Tech Stocks ? Last but not least, US jobs report on Friday morning had a significant impact on the closing week market. (more on that later) With Trump publicly pressurizing the Fed to lower interest rate via his propaganda machine Truth Social, it will be interesting to see how things play out this week, on the run up to following week’s Tuesday and Wednesday. (see above) For the week, the following reports were released: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (August - Final) Tue, 01 Sep 2026 - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (July) Wed, 02 Sep 2026 - ADP Employment Report (August) Wed, 02 Sep 2026 - Factory Orders (July) Thu, 03 Sep 2026 - US Jobless Claims. Thu, 03 Sep 2026 - Trade Balance (July) Fri, 04 Sep 2026 - US Non-farm Payroll (August). S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. The ‘final’ August 2026 - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI report came in at 53.9 vs market consensus of 53.2 vs July 2026’s unchanged 53.9. It could be said that US manufacturing operating conditions remained ‘productive’ in August 2026, with production volumes rising for the 15th straight month, though growth slowed to its weakest pace since February 2026. Growth in production & order books eased, with firms commonly linking the slowdown to (a) higher prices and (b) tight supply conditions. These pressures were often attributed to (1) the war in the Middle East and (2) tariff uncertainty, both banes of the Trump administration, as mid-term election looms. Again, this report presents a mixed economic picture rather than a definitive clean bill of health, balancing ongoing expansion against easing growth momentum and rising cost pressures. While the headline index at 53.9 and accelerating employment signal current resilience, slowing new orders and sticky input inflation highlight forward-looking vulnerabilities. Job Openings and Labour Turnover survey (JOLTs) July 2026’s JOLTs report by US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), highlights a labour market settling deeply into a "low-hire, low-fire" stagnation phase. Jobs opening rose by +89,000 to 7.271 million vs market estimates of 7.33 million vs June 2026’s downwards revised 7.182 million. Meaning, the headline growth registered was largely an illusion of a lower starting point with June 2026’s readings being revised down by -177,000 from 7.359 million. Hiring fell by roughly -280,000 to 5.054 million, sliding the hiring rate down to 3.2%, its lowest since early 2020. Last but not least: Voluntary “quits” rate fell to 1.9% (or 3.1 million), signaling worker hesitation to risk changing roles. Layoffs edged lower by -1.0% (or 1.666 million), keeping involuntary dismissals historically contained. Overall, this is a deteriorating & stale report. While it avoided the immediate panic of a recession because layoffs remain incredibly low, it is not a "healthy" dynamic. ADP Employment. The latest August 2026 report revealed a stark downshift in private-sector job creation. Headline numbers of 38,0000 fell short of Wall Street estimates of 47,000, confirming a broader cooling trend across the summer months. Compared against July 2026’s upwards revised 46,000, the decline was a -8,000. This marks the weakest single-month total for private hiring since January 2026: Sectors losing jobs - manufacturing (-17,000), professional services (-16,000), and information (-4,000). Sectors adding jobs - education & health care (+45,000), leisure & hospitality (+16,000) and construction (+12,000). Large corporations with 500+ employees, added +34,000 jobs, while small businesses squeaked by with a +3,000 job increase. Mid-sized business hiring was completely flat. With regards to US labour market’s wage, according to ADP Pay Insights data, growth has plateaued. Base pay growth for job-stayers held steady at 3.0%, keeping inflation worries largely contained. Overall, latest ADP jobs report is weak, from a growth perspective. However, from US central bank perspective, a cooling labour market relief the Fed from raising interest rate. Factory Orders. According to the US Census Bureau, US factory orders rebounded in July 2026, rising +0.9% ($5.8 billion) to $663.6 billion, beating analysts’ expectations of +0.7% and recovering from June 2026’s downwards revised -0.2%. This proves that US manufacturing remains highly resilient. Beating the consensus estimates and bouncing back from two consecutive monthly drops shows that underlying demand is strong, especially over a longer horizon, where orders are up a robust 6.5% YoY. Other key numbers include: Shipments increased by +0.8% to $658.8 billion. Unfilled orders also climbed higher by +0.6% to $1,600.3 billion, extending gains to 24 of the last 25 months. Inventories rose by +0.4% to $966.9 billion, marking the 10th consecutive monthly increase Market Context The manufacturing sector has continued to show resilience driven by (a) strong demand and (b) technology/AI-related equipment spending, despite ongoing cost pressures tied to (i) energy inflation, (ii) import tariffs, and (iii) supply chain concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Overall, a good report with vital caveats. The Caveat. The quality of the beat is slightly superficial because it relies heavily on volatile civilian aircraft orders. With core business investment (core capital goods) flatlined at 0%, it suggests that corporate America is taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach toward major capex. This is why semiconductors $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ is still volatile recently, since peaking on 22 Jun 2026 at $300.77 per share. (see above) A healthy report that keeps recession fears at bay. It signals a stabilizing manufacturing environment rather than a runaway economic boom. Jobless Claims. US jobless claims swung upward again somewhat last week but were generally flat as job creation slows. Weekly. For week ending 03 Sep 2026, weekly jobless claims crept up marginally by +2,000 to reach 206,000 coming in higher than analysts’ estimates of 205,000 and previous week’s upwards revised 204,000. (see below) 4-week moving average that smooths out weekly volatility, also ticked up by +1,500 to 207,250. - suggesting a modest softening in the pace of layoffs but still at historically tight levels. With the minor weekly bump, weekly claims remain anchored toward the lower boundary of historical baseline (that has fluctuated between 189,000 and 230,000). This indicates that absolute layoffs across American firms remain rare. Continuing. For week ending 22 Aug 2026, continuing claims stood at 1.779 million versus previous’s week’s claim of 1.771 million; an increased by +8,000 . 4-week moving average declined slightly to 1.782 million, dropping -5,000 from the previous week's 1.787 million. For the week, continuing claims remained under the 1.8 million threshold. This often signals broader labour weakness. Decline in the 4‑week average points to a slight improvement in the stock of people remaining on benefits, consistent with a still‑tight labour market. Overall taken together, latest data support a picture of a resilient, tight US labour market with no clear signs of rising layoffs or sustained weakening in employment. US Trade Balance. For July 2026, US goods and services trade deficit widened sharply by +24.4% (or -$17.4 billion) to $88.6 billion, coming in ‘better’ than market consensus of -$89.4 billion and previous month’s upwards revised deficit of -$71.2 billion. Import vs Export. Imports. Rose by +2.8% to $399.3 billion, up $10.8 billion from June 2026. Goods imports jumped +3.7% to $320.6 billion, driven by a $14.4 billion increase in capital goods, especially computers (+$6.9 billion), computer accessories (+$6.6 billion) and semiconductors (+$1.2 billion), reflecting AI data‑center build‑out. Services imports fell -$0.6 billion to $78.7 billion, mainly on lower charges for the use of intellectual property. Exports. Fell 2.1% to $310.7 billion, down $6.6 billion from June.reuters+2 Goods exports dropped 3.0% to $201.0 billion, led by an $8.7 billion decline in industrial supplies and materials (notably crude oil and non‑monetary gold).reuters+2 Services exports edged down $0.4 billion to $109.7 billion, with weakness in travel, financial and transport services. Overall the July trade report is not a good report for near-term US economic output. Net exports are a direct component of gross domestic product (GDP) calculations. A sharp widening in the trade gap acts as a notable drag on Q3 2026 GDP growth. Falling exports reflects softening global demand for US industrial materials and energy products. Imports swelling was largely propelled by capital goods, more specifically - technology infrastructure and hardware. This signals that US domestic businesses are still actively investing in capex, providing a mild buffer to the headline negative print. US Non-Farm Payroll. US economy added jobs at a brisk pace in August 2026, reversing a summer slowdown in hiring, while unemployment rate held steady. US jobs report jumped by +671.43% (or 141,000) to 162,000, well ahead of market consensus of 53,000 and July 2026’s upwards revised 21,000. Unemployment. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) headline unemployment rate (U‑3) held steady at 4.1%. (see above) While U‑6 (broad unemployment), fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, the lowest since mid‑2025, helped by a drop in part‑time workers for economic reasons. Summary. Overall, the August 2026 jobs report delivered, is a strong one, especially for US labour market: Hiring momentum came in better than expected, with broad‑based gains and a notable rebound in full‑time employment. Unemployment stable at a low 4.1%. U‑6 improving, and the labour force expanding rapidly without a spike in joblessness. My viewpoints: (mine only) My conclusions after going through the above reports a few times. I think US economy is no longer overheating or cooling, it is bifurcating. On the one hand, a tight labour market and AI-fuelled capex boom keep activity firm. On the other, slower new orders, elevated input prices, and a widening trade gap hint at underlying fragility and inflation risk. The real question isn’t whether growth will survive, but whether the Fed can tame inflation without choking off the investment cycle, AI infrastructure buildout, that is propping up the expansion. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. DELL, the next Magnificent 7 ? Really ? Surge US Bond Yields Crushing Tech Stocks ? Weak economy, US Market at risk but Oil ? Do you think last week’s US economic reports are indicating a stagnant US economy ? Do you think Trump’s antics will dirve Fed chair Warsh to try and hold off interest hike for another month ? 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