To The Moon

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates.

The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>>

空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？

Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly understand my current market perspective. First, a brief personal introduction:

The core views from this session are as follows:

August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding the market’s expectation of 55,000 and marking a significant upside surprise. Based on historical patterns, the data should have pushed the probability of a September rate hike above 80%. However, President Trump later threatened to cut off trade with all countries running trade surpluses with the U.S. if the Fed raised rates. Although markets questioned the credibility of the threat, the rate-hike probability still fell to around 58%, leaving the odds close to 60-40.

Current Market Expectations and Outlook

The probability of a rate hike currently stands at around 58%, with odds roughly 60-40. Equity indices, gold, Bitcoin, and other rate-sensitive assets have yet to fully price in this expectation, leaving markets broadly range-bound in the short term as trading sentiment remains cautious. Historical patterns suggest that periods of heightened uncertainty over rate expectations tend to bring choppy market conditions, while directional opportunities typically emerge only after key events are resolved.$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2609(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$

Key Trading Opportunities

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Gold Trading Strategy

• Gold is currently trading in the 4,000 to 4,800 range. A repeat of last year’s one-way rally is unlikely this year, so strategies should be built around a range-bound market.

• Short-term traders can opt for quick in-and-out trades and take profits along the way. Alternatively, investors can consider short options strategies with strikes below 4,000 or above 4,800, leaving a wide buffer from the current trading range to reduce the risk of a breakout.

• For investors with a long-term bullish view on gold, options can be positioned around the 4,000 level. If gold falls below that level, they can choose to take delivery of the underlying asset.$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF(159934)$

Bitcoin Trading Strategy

• Bitcoin has broadly tracked gold, but with a lag and much larger price swings, making it a higher-beta proxy for gold’s moves.

• Bitcoin has now fallen below its 20-month moving average. Historical patterns suggest that such a break is typically followed by a consolidation period of around six months.

• For now, short-term trading should take priority. A clearer directional view can be formed once the Fed’s rate decision is announced.$CME比特币主连 2609(BTCmain)$ $比特币ETF概念(BK4594)$ $2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares(BITX)$

Offshore RMB Trading Opportunities

• The offshore RMB has historically followed a roughly 17-month cycle against the U.S. dollar. It is now approaching a key turning point, while related futures remain in a downward channel.

• Investors with large asset exposures and greater FX sensitivity can adjust their currency-denominated assets ahead of a potential shift in the cycle.

• Short-term traders can monitor related contracts on exchanges such as CME. Once prices break above the channel, they can consider positioning for the move.$HK人民币主连 2609(CNHmain)$ $小型HK人民币主连 2609(MCNHmain)$

Trading Techniques: Avoid Relying on Default Trend Indicator Settings

Trend-following indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands use broadly similar methods. Their main purpose is to provide reference levels for setting stop-loss and take-profit points.

• As a baseline, the 5-day moving average is suited to short-term trends, while the 20-day moving average is more useful for medium-term trends on a daily chart.

• When adjusting parameters, prioritize settings that result in fewer price breaches. Fewer breaches generally indicate that the indicator is better aligned with the underlying trend.

• For short-term signals, parameters can be adjusted within a 5 to 10-day range. Medium-term settings can be adjusted within 15 to 30 days, while longer-term parameters should reflect the typical cycle of the underlying asset.

• For example, the 20-week moving average can serve as a reference for medium-term Nasdaq futures trends, while the 60-month moving average can be used to assess the long-term trend in soybean futures.

• Short-term parameters can be fine-tuned every one to two months. Long-term parameters should be adjusted less frequently and only when the asset’s underlying cycle shows a stable shift.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.