9/14–9/18 Weekly Volatility Range Assessment
Major Events This Week
Monday Open — Watch for Sector Rotation: Bearish for Hardware Chips, Bullish for Cloud Providers
Anthropic / OpenAI / SpaceX jointly calling for a slowdown in AI development pace — potentially bearish for AI stocks.
The bullish impact of Leopold's chip call positions may be offset; combined with mid-week news that GPT Pro suspended subscriptions due to surging Astra demand.
FOMC & Triple Witching: Favors Sellers
Low volatility: A large backlog of open options is pinning stock prices, resulting in very low volatility this week. Historical volatility levels for many stocks have reached mid-year lows.
No decline this week: Friday's FOMC may not trigger a major market reaction.
Decline next week: But pay attention to the Monday after Triple Witching — historical data shows late September has a higher probability and deeper magnitude of declines.
U.S.-Iran Conflict: High-Level Consolidation
Oil prices continue to rise; a pullback followed by another rebound cannot be ruled out.
Covered Calls Recommended for Long Stock Positions
Weekly Block Trade Summary
Leopold Makes Heavy Bet on AI Hardware Rallying Strongly Over the Next 4 Months
Leopold, who was liquidated in July due to leverage on a $40 billion fund, has disclosed new positions — all January 2027-expiry call spreads: AMD 540/580 Call, BE 250/310 Call, CRWV 105/115 Call, DRAM 65/60 Call, SKHY 190/210 Call, SNDK 2040/2200 Call, with cumulative margin of $315 million. A concentrated bet on AI chips/memory/power sectors rallying strongly over the next 4 months.
FXI Sell Calls, Capping Upside
FXI (China Large-Cap ETF) opened a Sell Call position: 2026-10-16 expiry, strike 36, volume 21,000 contracts. Betting it will struggle to break above 36 by mid-October.
GOOGL Bull Call Spread, Bullish on GOOGL
GOOGL opened a 2026-11-20 expiry Bull Call Spread: Buy 370 Call + Sell 440 Call, 27,000 contracts on each leg. Explicitly bullish on GOOGL, targeting the 370→440 range.
META Buy Call, Betting on MUSE Catalyst
META (Meta) bought the 2026-10-02 expiry 670 Call, volume 4,000 contracts, notional $6.4 million. Bullish on Meta.
QQQ Large Buy Put, Hedging Against Broader Market Pullback
QQQ (Nasdaq ETF) bought the 2026-12-18 expiry 655 Put, volume 14,000 contracts, notional $16.04 million. Betting on a broader market pullback in the second half, short hedge.
SPCX Sell Call, Capping Upside
SPCX (SpaceX) opened a Sell Call position: 2026-09-18 expiry, strike 155, volume 38,000 contracts. Betting it will struggle to break above 155 in the next two weeks.
NVDA Bull Roll, Extending Bullish Duration
NVDA (NVIDIA) closed the 2026-09-18 expiry 195 Call and opened a Buy position on the 2026-11-20 expiry 210 Call (Long Call roll). Bulls continuing, extending bullish duration.
SPY Sell Put, Betting on No Deep Decline from Rate Decision
SPY (S&P ETF, current price 757.8) opened a Sell Put position: 2026-09-25 expiry, strike 745, volume 12,900 contracts, notional $6.69 million. Betting the Fed rate decision won't cause a major market decline, with support below 745.
EWY Sell Put, Betting Korean Stocks Won't Break Down
EWY (Korea ETF, current price 182) opened a Sell Put position: 2026-11-20 expiry, strike 175, volume 6,418 contracts, notional $6.81 million. Betting it won't break below 175 by November.
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