To The Moon

Tonight, I reviewed the fundamental backdrop through four lenses: Fed tightening and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb; the World Gold Council report ahead of a packed central-bank week; China’s financial-sector agenda alongside inflation data; and the AI leaders amid US-China tariff tensions. I then mapped the next positioning framework around persistent rate pressure, rising debt burdens, Middle East risks, gold ETF flows, central-bank policy, and shifts across gold, silver and oil. The outlook also reflects energy costs, compute demand, softer AI momentum, distillation allegations, tariff risks and the yuan, which together will shape medium- to long-term capital flows and asset allocation. $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金2612(MGC2612)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $HK人民币主连 2612(CNHmain)$

On the international front, gold extended its decline last week after the release of US August PPI and CPI, as markets moved to fully price in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in September. That shift in rate expectations drove choppy selling in bullion and pushed spot prices to an intraday low of USD 4,252.70 an ounce, marking the weakest level since the late-August correction began.

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Rising inflation pressures have forced many Wall Street banks to rip up their research calls overnight.

Goldman Sachs has joined the hawkish camp on Wall Street, building a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September into its base-case view, so major investment banks now largely share a “hike this week” consensus after the August CPI print, even as their projections for the policy path beyond that diverge markedly.

Goldman’s latest forecast shift is unusual, as the bank has made clear that, on the underlying fundamentals, it still sees little compelling case for a rate hike at this stage.

As a result, Goldman is now framing its call around the Fed’s credibility, because markets have already fully priced a September hike, and any surprise pause could trigger unpredictable market fallout.

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JPMorgan has also abandoned its earlier wait-and-see stance, so it now forecasts 25 basis point rate hikes in both September and December.

JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli says the case for a hike is straightforward, because core PCE inflation has stayed above 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress toward the 2% target.

  $摩根大通(JPM)$ $JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF(JEPQ)$

Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark also expect a 25 basis point increase in September, and they judge that hotter‑than‑expected August core inflation, together with a renewed rise in energy prices, is probably just enough to build consensus for action.

So Wall Street banks have largely converged on a September hike, while their views on the policy path beyond that remain sharply divided.

Some firms see a single hike and then a pause, others argue for three consecutive moves, and a few expect two hikes this year followed by rate cuts next year once the September decision is out of the way.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s stance on the Fed has remained as firm as ever:

So the question for Warsh this week is whether he listens to the market and raises rates to uphold the Fed’s credibility (1), or listens to Trump and cuts in spite of markets now pricing in a hike (2), or simply ignores both sides and leaves policy unchanged (3)!

You can choose your own answer: 1, 2 or 3!

To wrap up, I’ll share the supporting slides from tonight’s session, including all the material on the sudden turn of events around the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait: