To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ has quietly become one of the more interesting rebound stories in AI infrastructure.

So far, shares are up +21.76% YTD, but stock is still down -21.46% over the past year as investors work through governance overhangs and margin whiplash.

What market participants are underweighting, is what SMCI actually sells.

Unlike NVDA, that designs the chips only and engages in circular financing, SMCI builds the full AI factory around them, a total solution in short, giving it a one-stop infrastructure moat.

This includes:

• Rack-scale servers.

• Direct liquid cooling.

• Switches, storage & deployment services.

The $60 Target.

Given the striking disconnect between SMCI’s YTD and past 12 months, 24/7 Wall St strongly believe SMCI is capable of hitting $60 per share price target (PT), based on its data modelling. (see below)

Although Wall Street is warming up to SMCI, it is still moving slower than the company's actual growth:

• The consensus one-year price target sits at $42.38.

• Ratings have been skewed to 11 “Holds” versus 5 “Buys” and 3 “Sells”. (see below)

• If you asked me, it is a hold-flavoured book.

• Ratings look cautious relative to what analysts are doing with their data models.

Futures Earnings Forecasts.

When SMCI recently reported its second quarter earnings, it was for Q4 2026.

Below are SMCI’s estimates for FY 2027/28 estimates:

• The FY 2027’s EPS is estimated to jump to $4.3382, up from FY 2026’s $3.2707, with 16 upward revisions in the trailing seven days and zero cuts in the past 30.

• FY 2027’s revenue estimates, averages $67.1 billion, within management's $65 - $72 billion guide. (see above)

• FY 2028’s EPS estimates have similarly climbed to $5.3259 from $3.7091, 3 months ago.

Reaching $60.

At $35.64 (as of 15 Sep 2026), SMCI trades at roughly 11x trailing earnings and about 8x FY2027 consensus EPS.

Hitting $60 would put the forward multiple near 14x FY2027 EPS or 11x FY2028 EPS.

That is still a discount to $S&P 500(.SPX)$’s forward multiple of roughly 22x.

This explains why investors banking on the bull case are counting on valuation recovery alongside steady operational delivery.

Possible Drivers.

(1) Backlog.

• SMCI has booked over $60 billion in new orders in FY2026, with 70% pure AI. It is entering fiscal 2027 at record levels.

(2) Margin recovery.

• Gross Margin: In Q4 2026, the non-GAAP gross margin recovered to +17.6%.

• Operating Margin & Earnings: The non-GAAP operating margin reached +14.3%, helping push non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to $1.70; easily beat estimates $0.9575 by +77.55%. (see below)

(3) Beat cadence:

• Non-GAAP EPS has topped estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

(4) Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) moat.

• CEO Charles Liang described SMCI as a comprehensive, single-source provider for clients looking to construct data centers or AI factories faster and more efficiently.

• The company aims for a global capacity of over 6,000 racks per month, that includes more than 3,000 racks per month dedicated to direct liquid-cooled capacity.

• Operations span across a 32-acre DCBBS campus in Silicon Valley, alongside additional facilities located in Taiwan, Malaysia, and the Netherlands.

(5) Customer diversification.

• The number of high-value customers (HVC) generating over $1 billion each has grown from four to nine.

Historical Reference.

Reaching $60 would require a +68% increase from current prices, which aligns with SMCI's history of fast, massive gains, such as rising +981.77% over 5 years and +1,566.98% over 10 years. (see above)

The stock already traded near $60 over the past year (reaching a 52-week high of $58.78), and its high volatility means moves of this size are typical for the company.

With a beta near 2.0, moves of this magnitude are within SMCI's normal volatility band.

Bottom Line.

To hit $60 in 2027, SMCI needs to:

• Meet its $65 - $72 billion revenue goal.

• Keep its profit margins high like their Q4 2026’s.

• Successfully put the board's independent review behind it.

SMCI’s current setup is strong:

• Earnings estimates are going up.

• Order backlogs are at record highs.

• The stock is trading at a low price compared to its future earnings, even with +77.79% revenue growth in FY 2026.

While gains like this do not happen every year, SMCI has a clear path to reach $60 in 2027.

Technical Analysis.

Is SMCI’s prospect as rosy as the 24/7 Wall St news print and the $60 PT that easily achievable ?

Will be looking at SMCI’s technical indicators of (1) Simple Moving Average of 20-day, 50-day & 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI - for possible clues.

(1) Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On Wed, 16 Sep 2026, SMCI ended the day at $36.85 per share.

This is lower than its SMA of (a) 20-day ($37.59) indicating immediate upward momentum has softened.

However, SMCI is higher than its SMA of (b) 50-day ($32.88) and (c) 200-day ($31.52) - preserving a constructive intermediate- and longer-term recovery trend.

Notably, the chart highlights a Golden Cross formation, supporting a structurally healthier medium-to-long-term setup.

(2) MACD.

Both the MACD line (1.13) and Signal line (1.57) are currently above the Zero line, preserving a positive broader momentum bias.

With the MACD line sitting slightly lower than the Signal line, this confirms a bearish short-term crossover, after the sharp rallies earlier in the summer.

A negative divergence (-0.44) and histogram contraction show that buying pressure has temporarily paused, matching the price action consolidating just under the $40 resistance level.

(3) RSI.

With its 14-day RSI at 47.97, this is a neutral to mildly bearish, with neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

On the whole, SMCI is in a recovery phase rather than a fully confirmed uptrend.

A move above the 20-day SMA ($37.59), followed by a bullish MACD crossover and RSI above 50, would improve the outlook.

My viewpoint: (mine only)

SMCI’s path to US$60 is credible, but its ability to remain there depends far more on execution than on excitement around AI.

The company has the following x-factors to revisit that level:

• Order backlog.

• Earnings-revision momentum.

• Liquid-cooling capability.

• Valuation headroom.

However, sustained upside requires:

• Consistent margin delivery.

• Reliable backlog conversion.

• Lasting resolution of the governance overhang.

[Sidetrack]

The primary legal overhang stems from a federal DOJ indictment regarding a $2.5 billion illicit scheme to smuggle export-restricted $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ AI chips into China.

This is compounded by a parallel SEC accounting investigation into revenue manipulation.

Although in August 2026, an internal board probe cleared current senior management of wrongdoing, the official criminal trial for indicted co-founder Wally Liaw is scheduled to commence in March 2027.

Until the price reclaims its short-term 20-day SMA and momentum indicators turn decisively higher, US$60 should be viewed as an achievable bull-case destination, not yet an established valuation floor.

A fair assessment ? What do you think ?

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