$Apple(AAPL)$ 2026 estimates point to smartphone sales declining more than 14% by year end. The drop is tied to sharp memory cost increases, which are forcing price hikes to avoid major profit losses.
The bigger question is where the sales declines and price hikes will hurt the most. Android is forecast to take the hardest hit, with up to a 25% decline in sales spread across all Android makers. That hits them hardest in their bread and butter low-end budget tiers, and somewhat in the midrange as well.
This does not include Huawei, which may see a small decline in absolute sales.
Samsung and Chinese OEMs cannot absorb the cost increases, so they have to raise prices, which may reduce sales and demand at those price points. That is just how this business is adapting to the memory crunch. It may get worse in 2027.
Meanwhile, Apple is forecast to either have a slight 1% decline, or be flat at 247M, or in my view actually increase sales to above 250M, along with an upper single digit percentage increase in ASP per sale.
While Android Premium is holding up okay, the primary Android business, which is about 90% of sales in mid and low priced models, is going to be hit hard. Makers will face revenue constraints and declining profits.
Apple remains my preferred name in this setup.
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