To The Moon

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks.

As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week’s key asset moves were as follows:

Figure 1. Weekly Performance of Key Assets

With macro expectations shifting repeatedly, price moves alone no longer capture the main drivers of asset performance. Inventory trends offer a clearer read on physical supply and demand, while fund flows reveal investor positioning. Against this backdrop, the latest developments in U.S. equities, Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold and silver are best assessed through these two lenses.

Equity Fund Outflows Ease as the Yield Spread Narrows

Founded in 1940, ICI (Investment Company Institute) is one of the leading trade associations for the U.S. fund industry. Its member funds registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 account for about 98% of assets in this market. The ICI’s flow data are therefore widely used to track subscriptions and redemptions across U.S. public funds. It also publishes long-running statistics on regulated fund assets and flows in the United States and globally, making its data a common reference for brokerages, research firms and financial media.

According to the latest data from the ICI:

U.S. equity fund outflows eased sharply. For the week ended September 9, U.S. equity funds saw estimated net outflows of $9.14 billion, or 0.1% of assets as of July 31, down from $23.66 billion the previous week. Domestic equity funds accounted for $6.57 billion of the outflows, while world equity funds saw $2.57 billion withdrawn. The improvement suggests that redemption pressure, while still concentrated in domestic funds, has eased materially.

Bond fund inflows extended for a second straight week. For the week ended September 9, bond funds drew an estimated $662 million, up from $408 million in the previous week. Taxable bond funds attracted $617 million, while municipal bond funds added $45 million. All three figures represented less than 0.1% of assets as of July 31. Overall, equity outflows eased while bond inflows strengthened. Equity fund outflows narrowed to $9.14 billion from $23.66 billion, while bond fund inflows rose by $254 million. This suggests that fund redemptions in equities have eased, whereas demand for bonds has remained resilient, pointing to a modest improvement in risk sentiment at the margin.

Figure 2. U.S. Fund Net Flows: Equity and Bond Funds (Source: ICI)

$標普500ETF(SPY)$ $標普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指數主連 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指數主連 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指數2606(MES2606)$ $道瓊斯指數主連 2606(YMmain)$ $微型道瓊斯指數主連 2606(MYMmain)$ $道瓊斯(.DJI)$ $道瓊斯ETF(DIA)$ $納斯達克100指數(NDX)$ $NQ100指數主連 2606(NQmain)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2606(MNQmain)$ $微型10年美債收益率主連 2605(10Ymain)$ $10年美債主連 2606(ZNmain)$

On the yield curve, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.00% on September 15, versus 4.11% for the 3-month bill, leaving the 10-year/3-month spread at 89 basis points. From September 9, the 10-year yield rose 17 basis points and the 3-month yield gained 16 basis points, widening the spread by 1 basis point.

The move echoed the week from August 26 to September 2, when long-end yields also rose slightly faster than short-end rates. On September 15, the 10-year yield briefly reached 5.0266% intraday before slipping back below 5%, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.36%. The curve reflects renewed inflation concerns driven by higher oil prices, alongside expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed hike. CME FedWatch had placed the odds above 92% ahead of the meeting.

$標普500ETF(SPY)$ $標普500(.SPX)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ $納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$

Figure 3. U.S. 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury Yields (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.)

Tracking Inventory Trends in Key Assets

Crude Oil: Year-on-Year Inventory Build Diverges From Higher Prices

According to the latest EIA data, U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels in the week ended September 11. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma declined by 342,000 barrels to 21.5 million. Both measures therefore extended modest weekly draws.

The broader inventory picture remains less tight. Commercial crude stocks were 1.9% above year-ago levels and 1.4% above levels two years earlier, indicating that nationwide inventories remain relatively elevated. Cushing was the exception: stocks there were about 10.0% below a year earlier, pointing to tighter conditions at the WTI delivery hub rather than across the U.S. crude market as a whole.

This creates a divergence between inventory fundamentals and prices. Brent briefly traded near $100 a barrel during the week as escalating Middle East tensions raised the risk of supply disruptions. Yet the EIA data showed only a modest nationwide draw from still-elevated inventory levels. The rally therefore appears to have been driven primarily by a repricing of geopolitical supply risk, rather than by a broad-based domestic inventory shortage. Cushing’s year-on-year draw offers a more localized structural tightness signal, while geopolitical risk acts as a faster-moving and potentially less durable price catalyst.$WTI原油主連 2610(CLmain)$ $小原油主連 2610(QMmain)$

Figure 4. U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories: Five-Year Range Comparison

Figure 5. Crude Oil Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma: Five-Year Range Comparison

$美國原油ETF(USO)$$WTI原油主連 2607(CLmain)$ $小原油主連 2607(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主連 2607(MCLmain)$

Copper: Regional Inventory Mismatch Persists as Prices Seek Physical Confirmation

According to Wind data, combined copper inventories across the SHFE, LME and COMEX stood at about 995,500 tonnes in the week ended September 17, down 7,300 tonnes from the previous week. SHFE warrant stocks totaled 31,850 tonnes, LME inventories were about 255,900 tonnes, and COMEX registered and total inventories stood at 476,842 and 768,098 short tons, respectively. Despite the modest weekly decline, inventories across the three exchanges were still nearly 500,000 tonnes higher than a year earlier and remained elevated overall.

Figure 6. COMEX Copper Inventories (Unit: short tons. Source: Wind.)

Figure 7. SHFE Copper Inventories (Unit: tonnes. Source: Wind.)

Figure 8. LME Copper Inventories (Unit: tonnes. Source: Wind.)

This week, copper inventories across the three major exchanges continued to show a clear regional imbalance. COMEX stocks rose about 39% from roughly 500,000 tonnes at end-January and reached a record 695,624 tonnes(about 766,800 short tons), in early September. They were nearly 7.7 times higher than a year earlier. LME inventories climbed to around 256,000 tonnes but remained well below their April peak of about 400,000 tonnes. In China, SMM data showed social inventories at 89,100 tonnes on September 17, down 44,600 tonnes from 133,700 tonnes a year earlier and near this year’s lows.

Although visible exchange stocks remained elevated overall, copper hit a record high in early September as investors priced in long-term demand from electrification and grid expansion. Expectations of U.S. Section 232 tariffs also encouraged regional stockpiling and dislocated inventories toward the U.S. Combined visible stocks at COMEX, LME and SHFE totaled about 993,000 tonnes, including roughly 695,600 tonnes at COMEX, 234,000 tonnes at the LME and 63,000 tonnes at the SHFE. COMEX accounted for about 70% of the total, underscoring the most pronounced regional inventory imbalance since February 2025.

$COMEX銅主連 2612(HGmain)$ $微型銅主連 2612(MHGmain)$ $迷你銅主連 2612(QCmain)$

Aluminum: LME Inventories at Record Lows While Prices Face Macro Headwinds

According to Wind data, aluminum inventories across the three major exchanges diverged sharply in the week ended September 17, Eastern Time. LME aluminum stocks stood at 243,600 tonnes, down about 265,600 tonnes from the start of the year and at their lowest level since 1990. On September 11, registered SHFE aluminum warrants totaled 212,073 tonnes, down 1,526 tonnes from the previous trading day. China's domestic social inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots continued to draw down, falling from 802,000 tonnes on September 7 to 776,000 tonnes on September 14, according to SMM data, and easing a further 63,000 tonnes this week to about 713,000 tonnes as of September 17. That extends a steady decline from a nearly six-year high of about 1.465 million tonnes in early May. COMEX aluminum inventories remained negligible, with registered stocks of just 1,176 short tons and total stocks of 1,380 short tons. Combined visible inventories across the three exchanges totaled only about 1.08 million tonnes, an extremely low level by historical standards and a sign of continued tightness in the physical market.$鋁主連 2611(ALImain)$

Figure 9. LME Aluminum Inventories (Unit: tonnes. Source: Wind.)

Figure 10. COMEX Aluminum Inventories (Unit: tonnes. Source: Wind.)

Figure 11. SHFE Aluminum Inventories (Unit: 10,000 tonnes. Source: Wind.)

The logic for tracking aluminum inventories mirrors that for copper, though regional divergence is even more pronounced. Inventory swings across exchanges reflect not only end-user demand but also delivery rules, financing trades, warehouse location and cross-market arbitrage. This week's data reinforce that point: stocks are not drawing down in sync across markets, which suggests the aluminum market has not yet entered a broad-based tightening phase. Unlike copper, though, aluminum inventories are falling almost everywhere, with the divergence lying in the pace and drivers of each drawdown rather than in its direction.

Precious Metals: Falling Inventories Diverge From Prices as Crowded Positioning Unwinds

COMEX gold inventories fell to 27.38 million ounces this week, down about 33% from 40.16 million ounces a year earlier, while COMEX silver stocks dropped to 333 million ounces, down roughly 35% from 510 million ounces a year ago. Yet both drawdowns failed to lift prices: COMEX gold settled at $4,302.50 an ounce on September 17, down 0.7%, and silver fell 0.68% to $63.42, leaving gold's year-to-date gain at just 0.5%. The inventory decline looks more like a reflection of physical delivery flows and ETF rebalancing than a sign of tight spot supply. The real pressure point is positioning: CFTC data show silver's non-commercial net long collapsing from a peak of 94,000 contracts to just 36,200, a multi-year low, while gold's non-commercial net long has kept climbing to about 232,000 contracts, near record territory and a clear sign that long positioning has become crowded.$黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金2612(MGC2612)$ $白銀主連 2612(SImain)$ $白銀主連 2612(SImain)$

Figure 12. COMEX Gold Inventories (Unit: 10,000 troy ounces.)

Figure 13. COMEX Gold Non-Commercial Long and Short Positions (Unit: 10,000 contracts. Source: CFTC.)

Because silver carries both a precious-metal and an industrial-metal identity, its price direction hinges partly on how copper and aluminum are trading. This week, copper retreated from recent highs as LME inventories kept building and the curve flipped from backwardation into contango, while aluminum stayed weak even as LME stocks hit a record low, weighed down by broader macro pressure. Neither industrial metal signaled improving demand. Silver is therefore caught in a double squeeze: crowded positioning is unwinding on the precious-metals side, while soft copper and aluminum demand drags on its industrial side. CFTC data show silver's speculative net long as a share of open interest rebounding from 19.7% on August 18 to 25.2% by September 8, in the 73rd percentile historically, but that rebuild has come almost entirely from new longs rather than short-covering, which makes the position structure more fragile in the absence of confirmed industrial demand. If rates keep rising, precious metals face further profit-taking risk, and a more durable base would require both lower rates and falling inventories at the same time; until then, silver's industrial link means it is likely to see sharper downside than gold.

Figure 14. COMEX Silver Inventories (Unit: 100 million troy ounces. Source: CFTC.)

Figure 15. COMEX Silver Non-Commercial Long and Short Positions (Unit: 10,000 contracts. Source: CFTC.)

Reading the Fund Flows, Reading the Inventories

Taken together, this week's inventory data point to divergence among industrial metals and gradual destocking in precious metals. Commercial crude inventories stayed above year-ago levels even as Cushing tightened locally. Copper's regional mismatch showed up as COMEX dominance, holding more than 70% of global exchange stocks, rather than a broad-based build. Aluminum inventories at the LME hit a 36-year low. COMEX gold stocks fell about 24% from year-end to 27.38 million ounces, while silver dropped roughly 31% to 333 million ounces.

On the fund-flow side, equity outflows narrowed and bond inflows continued, even as the Fed's 25-basis-point hike pushed the 10-year yield to its highest level since 2007. CFTC positioning also diverged: gold's net long stabilized after a sharp reduction in early September, silver's net long edged higher against the broader trend, and copper's net long picked up as well.

Overall, this week's asset divergences trace back to the same underlying logic. The tightness showing up in inventory data has yet to fully pass through to prices, while yields climbed to a multi-year high largely because markets had already priced in the rate hike. Until inventories turn a clear corner or rates find a ceiling, oil's rally looks difficult to sustain. Within precious metals, gold remains constrained by higher rates, while silver faces a double burden from weak copper and aluminum demand on top of that, leaving it more vulnerable to further declines.

Next week's price action remains to be seen.