To The Moon

The market is currently pricing in a 25-basis-point initial rate hike with a high degree of confidence, and this expectation has already been largely reflected in equity prices. The main drivers are inflationary pressure from higher energy prices and Waller’s relatively hawkish remarks. $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2611(MCLmain)$

This would mark the first rate hike in years, against the backdrop of energy-driven inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict.$布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$ $两倍做多彭博天然气ETF-ProShares(BOIL)$ $天然气主连 2610(NGmain)$

Under the conventional transmission mechanism, a rate hike tends to strengthen the U.S. dollar, which would naturally put pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil. Higher interest rates may also restrain economic activity and weaken demand expectations, both of which are directly bearish for oil prices. Historically, rapid tightening cycles have often been accompanied by pullbacks in commodities.

Technical Setup

On the daily chart, crude oil’s strong advance since July has decisively broken above its prior descending trendline. A sequence of harmonic patterns then drove a powerful rebound. As the saying goes, “reversal is the movement of the Tao”: at the end of this momentum leg, a bearish harmonic Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) has formed once again. This zone is also aligned with overhead supply, creating a confluence of resistance.

Against this technical backdrop and the prevailing macro risks, the strategy is to look for opportunities on lower timeframes to establish short positions at higher levels.

• Key resistance: 107–111

• Initial support: 88–90; monitor for a supportive price reaction in this area

• Next downside level: If the 88–90 support zone breaks, focus on the area around 81

In short, the technical structure favors selling rallies rather than chasing price lower, with potential entries to be evaluated on lower timeframes as price approaches the identified resistance and supply zone.$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2611(QMmain)$