To The Moon

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term.

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2612(MGCmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

This conclusion is based on several aspects of actual market performance, the most important from a macro perspective being the pullback in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Put simply, the main source of pressure behind this rate hike, as well as another possible hike toward year-end, may not be inflation itself, but the relentless rise in bond yields. Bringing yields under control would essentially mean that the policy objective has been achieved, temporarily easing the market’s biggest source of uncertainty. Taking the 10-year Treasury yield as an example, the 5% level is not only a macroeconomic warning threshold, but also a key technical resistance level. A breakout above it could trigger significant knock-on effects. For now, however, that risk appears to have subsided, at least in the short term.

The second signal comes from crypto: both Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied after last week’s rate hike and may break higher. Even if they fail at stronger resistance, new short-term highs would indicate that risk appetite remains upbeat. As cryptocurrencies have been reliable leading indicators this year, other major assets are unlikely to reverse unless crypto does. The key concern is timing: with Q4 and November approaching and $100,000 potentially shifting from support to resistance, we still expect the rally to end when price and market cycles converge.

$Bitcoin(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ $Ethereum(ETH.USD.HKCC)$ $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ $Ethereum(ETH.USD.CC)$

The third signal comes from oil: backwardation in WTI futures and the failure to gain meaningful ground above $100 suggest that the rally has hit resistance. Without a major new catalyst, oil is likely to consolidate or pull back. Since oil prices tend to move inversely to most other assets, stalled oil prices should give those markets room to perform.

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2611(QMmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $Oil&gas mining(BK0274)$

Finally, in U.S. equities, the S&P 500’s flag consolidation and the Nasdaq’s shorter-term consolidation appear to be nearing completion, potentially setting the stage for another run at all-time highs. Taken together, these signals establish the broader short-term direction: until key levels across these assets break down, traders should avoid going against the trend. However, whether to enter a trade ultimately depends on the risk-reward ratio.

$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(MESmain)$

This week’s strategy: Half of the EUR long position was filled at 1.1502, with the remaining half set to buy at 1.1442. The stop-loss is at 1.1360 and the target at 1.18. The pending order remains valid until canceled. $Euro FX - main 2612(EURmain)$ $Euro FX - Sep 2026(EUR2609)$ $EUR Index(EURindex.FOREX)$

For crude oil, the long position entered at an average price of 75 previously reached its first target at 95, where half of the position was closed for profit. This week, the stop-loss will be raised further to 84. The next target is 115, where the remaining position will be closed. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(CLmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2611(MCLmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$

For gold, last week’s long order missed being filled by less than $10, and we do not expect another deep pullback in the near term. We will attempt a short-term trade: buy limit at 4,340, stop-loss at 4,270, with targets at 4,550 and 4,760. The order is valid through the end of the week.$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2612(MGCmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

The pending short orders remain unchanged, awaiting possible execution: sell limits at 4,830 and 5,170, with half the position allocated to each; stop-loss at 5,275; target at 4,000.

P.S. If a trade reaches its first target, the stop-loss will automatically be moved to the entry price. Any adjustments made after execution will be provided in subsequent articles.