To The Moon

The most interesting part of the memory rally isn’t Tuesday’s gains.

It’s what the order books are starting to say.

SanDisk jumped 6.82%, Micron gained 5%, and SK Hynix rose 3.45%. Rosenblatt’s new SanDisk coverage highlighted customer agreements covering roughly 65% of fiscal 2028 production — a very different setup from the classic memory cycle where companies build capacity first and hope demand follows. 

That creates an unusual question:

If so much future capacity is already spoken for, is the market still pricing memory like a commodity cycle?

There are two ways to look at it.

📈 The bull case:

Long-term commitments give manufacturers better visibility and reduce the risk of aggressive inventory swings. AI infrastructure is also creating demand for both HBM and high-performance NAND, potentially making memory a more strategic part of the data-centre stack.

⚠️ The bear case:

Selling capacity years ahead can also cap the upside if prices rise faster than expected. And memory is still cyclical — supply eventually responds to high margins.

Even Micron’s latest technology roadmap points to continuing demand from increasingly memory-intensive AI and server workloads. 

So perhaps the real trade isn’t simply “memory prices up = buy memory stocks.”

It’s whether manufacturers can lock in enough demand without giving away too much of the upside.

💬 QUESTION:

Would you rather see a memory company with 65%+ of future capacity already contracted, or would you prefer more uncommitted capacity so it can benefit if prices keep rising?