To The Moon

If interest rates stay higher for longer, the obvious response is to hide in cash and collect the yield.

I'm taking a different approach.

I still want exposure to crypto, but I’m separating Bitcoin from Circle (CRCL) because higher rates affect them very differently.

Bitcoin is the scarce asset. Circle is the business trying to build financial infrastructure around digital dollars.

One is primarily a liquidity and adoption trade. The other must ultimately deliver revenue, margins and durable competitive advantage.

That distinction determines my Pick Levels.

Why I Still Want Bitcoin

Bitcoin has recovered strongly from its Q3 lows and is back around the mid-$80,000s.

Higher rates are not automatically bullish for BTC. A stronger dollar, attractive Treasury yields and tighter liquidity can all compete with crypto for capital.

But that is exactly why I don't want to wait for the perfect macro environment.

If BTC can remain resilient while yields are high, I want exposure before monetary conditions eventually become easier, not only after everyone sees the pivot coming.

My strategy is therefore accumulation, not chasing.

My BTC Pick Levels

$82,000-$85,000: First Pick

I'm comfortable starting or continuing accumulation here. I would keep the position modest because BTC can easily produce another sharp shakeout.

$76,000-$80,000: Preferred Pick

This becomes considerably more interesting. If the decline is caused mainly by rates, dollar strength or general risk-off positioning rather than a structural crypto problem, I would add more.

$70,000-$75,000: Strong Pick

This is where I would want meaningful dry powder available.

$90,000-$92,000: Breakout Test

A sustained move through this region would make the road toward $100,000 much more interesting. I would rather hold existing exposure than suddenly chase.

Below $70,000: Thesis Check

I would stop assuming it is simply another dip and investigate what has changed.

CRCL Is a Different Bet

This is where things get interesting.

Circle is exposed to crypto adoption through USDC, but CRCL is still an equity.

That means higher rates create a strange two-sided effect.

Higher rates can support income generated from reserves backing USDC.

But high Treasury yields also raise the hurdle rate investors apply to CRCL itself. Investors can demand a lower valuation multiple from a volatile growth stock when safer assets offer attractive returns.

Then there is the bigger strategic question.

Circle needs USDC adoption to keep expanding while defending its economics against increasing stablecoin competition.

So I don't want to buy CRCL merely because I am bullish on Bitcoin.

BTC going up is helpful. It is not the CRCL thesis.

The CRCL thesis is whether Circle can turn stablecoin adoption into increasingly durable economics.

My CRCL Pick Levels

With CRCL recently around the low-$80s, this is finally getting interesting again.

$78-$82: First Pick

I would be comfortable beginning to accumulate here, but not deploying everything.

$70-$75: Preferred Pick

This is the zone I like more. It gives me greater protection against both equity-market volatility and disappointment around Circle-specific execution.

$62-$68: Strong Pick

If CRCL reaches this zone while USDC adoption and Circle’s underlying business remain healthy, I would investigate adding substantially more.

$88-$92: First Resistance Test

I want to see CRCL reclaim this area convincingly.

Above $100: Fundamental Confirmation Needed

Getting back above $100 would be psychologically important, but I would want the business to justify the rerating rather than buying simply because triple digits have returned.

Below $60: Thesis Check

At that point I would reassess competition, USDC growth and Circle’s earnings trajectory rather than blindly average down.

The Trade I Actually Want

I don't see BTC versus CRCL as an either/or decision.

I want them to perform different jobs.

BTC is my cleaner long-term crypto exposure.

CRCL is my higher-risk attempt to capture upside from stablecoin infrastructure and adoption.

That means I would size BTC larger and trade CRCL more actively around my Pick Levels.

And if rates stay high?

I'm happy to keep some cash earning yield while waiting for either asset to come to me.

That removes the pressure to chase.

What Would Make Me More Bullish?

For BTC, I'm watching liquidity, ETF demand, the dollar and whether the $90,000 area can eventually be reclaimed.

For CRCL, I care more about USDC circulation, monetisation, competition, margins and whether Circle can prove it deserves to be valued as more than a rate-sensitive reserve-income business.

If both theses strengthen simultaneously, that is when the setup gets particularly interesting.

Because the biggest Q4 opportunity may not be choosing between traditional assets and crypto.

It may be using high rates to get paid while waiting for better crypto entries.

My Pick-Level conclusion is simple:

BTC: accumulate weakness.

CRCL: trade the volatility.

Cash: make it earn while I wait.

Tigers, if you had $10,000 to deploy in a higher-for-longer environment, would you choose BTC, CRCL, or split it between both?

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

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