$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ vs $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ what would you pick?
At around $1,865, ASML has already had a strong run, so I wouldn’t go all-in today. But I don’t think it’s too late for a 3–5+ year position.
Why I like ASML
ASML is arguably the “picks-and-shovels” monopoly behind advanced AI chips. TSMC, Samsung and Intel need ASML’s lithography equipment to manufacture increasingly advanced chips.
The fundamentals are impressive:
* Q2 2026 revenue: €9.33B
* Q2 net income: €2.92B
* Gross margin: 54%
* 2026 revenue guidance was raised substantially to €43–45B
* Q3 guidance: €11–12B revenue
* ASML says AI investment is driving stronger demand for advanced Logic and Memory capacity.
* Current forecasts put long-term earnings growth around 21.5% annually.
And importantly, Q3 results are due October 14, so there is a near-term catalyst — but also event risk.
NVDA vs ASML for you
NVDA ASML
AI growth ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Competitive moat ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐+
Current valuation Better More expensive
Growth potential Higher Very strong
Cyclical risk Medium Higher
Monopoly advantage Strong Exceptional
My 5-year confidence 9/10 9/10
I slightly prefer ASML as a diversification play.
You already have exposure to semiconductor/AI names. Owning ASML gives you exposure to the equipment layer rather than another chip designer.
How I’d buy it
I would not chase $1,865 immediately with a full position.
I’d use something like:
$1,850–1,900 → 25% position $1,700–1,800 → another 25% $1,550–1,700 → another 25% Major correction → final 25%
The interesting thing is that ASML’s valuation has become a concern after the big run; some current analysis puts it around 38× forward earnings, so you’re paying a premium for that monopoly.
My ranking right now
If I had fresh money specifically for AI/semiconductors:
1. NVDA — best combination of growth + valuation 2. ASML — best semiconductor infrastructure/moat 3. AMD — higher risk/higher upside 4. TSM — excellent business but geopolitical risk 5. QCOM — cheaper/lagging, but less direct AI exposure
So yes, I would buy ASML, but I’d make it a gradual accumulation rather than a chase.
One thing I’d pay particular attention to: ASML reports Q3 on October 14. Given how much the stock has already moved, I would be comfortable starting only a small position before earnings and keeping cash available in case the market gives you a better entry.
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