To The Moon

I confess.

I have not been sharing US weekly economic reports for the past 2 weeks.

There are 2 main reasons:

1. It takes a lot of time to read (with comprehension) and then compile them into a concise post to share.

2. I seemed to get the idea that most readers are not that ‘interested’ in such post (from myself), based on the ‘likes’ & ‘reposts’ responses for my weekly effort.

However, seeing my post dated 28 Sep 2026 (for previous week’s economic reports released) on the weekly chart, I decided to soldier on, despite it not being well received.

So here I am sharing the US economic reports out the week before and they are mainly ‘jobs’ reports.

Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover surveys (JOLTs).

The JOLTs for August 2026 was released on Tue, 29 Sep 2026.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) represents a fundamentally stable but cooling "low-hire, low-fire" US labour market. (see below)

While headline job openings dropped by -256,000 to 7.079 million from an upwardly revised July 2026’s 7.335 million.

This missed Wall Street's consensus expectation of 7.225 million vacancies and marked the lowest level of available openings since March.

Overall, economists view it as a steady, resilient, and low-dynamism report rather than strictly strong or weak.

Below are the drilled-down details:

• Job Openings Rate: Eased down slightly to 4.3% from July 2026’s 4.4%.

• Hiring: Changed marginally, edging up slightly by +46,000 to 5.192 million (a 3.3% hiring rate).

• Layoffs & Discharges: Dropped by -61,000 to a historically low 1.641 million, ticking the layoff rate down to just 1.0%.

• Quits (the voluntary turnover): Came in ‘flat’ at 3.066 million (a 1.9% quits rate), signaling a cautious workforce that is less inclined to jump to new roles.

US Consumer Confidence.

The Conference Board (CB) report for September 2026 was released on Tue, 29 Sep 2026.

The September 2026’s Consumer Confidence Index® fell by -6.7 points to 81.9, down from downwards revised August 2026’s 88.6. (see above)

It also fell short of economists’ consensus of 89.2.

Historical take.

Actually, US consumer headline confidence has been on a long downward trend since hitting a post-pandemic peak of 128.9 in mid-2021.

With September 2026’s decline, the Index now stands at its lowest level since April 2014 (81.7).

Drilling down:

• The Present Situation Index retreated by -7.9 points to 109.3.

• The Expectations Index, (based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions) fell by -5.9 points to 63.6, its 3rd consecutive monthly decline.

Pessimism rising: Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024.

Perceptions of the current labour market also worsened, though remained within positive territory.

Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labour market to weaken.

Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.

ADP Non-farm payroll.

US private sector non-farm payroll report was released on Wed, 30 Sep 2026.

For September 2026, US private-sector employment increased by 90,000 jobs, beating the Dow Jones consensus estimate of around 68,000 - 75,000 jobs.

It also marked a sharp rebound from a downward revised August 2026’s 36,000 jobs.

There also was a fair amount of balance in the report, with service providers adding 59,000 positions while goods producers contributed 31,000.

Base pay rose +3.2% YoY, while gross pay accelerated by +4.7%.

According to ADP, Chief economist, Nela Richardson:

• It is a strong report.

• After a 3-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid.

Growth sectors included:

• Education & health services : +55,000 new hires.

• Leisure & hospitality : +22,000 jobs.

• Manufacturing : +17,000 jobs.

• Construction : +15,000 jobs.

Sectors registered job losses:

• Financial activities : -16,000 jobs.

• Professional & business services : -11,000 jobs.

• Natural resources & mining : -1,000 jobs.

Broadly, the ADP employment report helped confirm sentiment expressed by multiple Federal Reserve officials that US labour market is mostly sound, following a growth scare in 2025.

Gross Domestic Product Q2 2026.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its 3rd & final estimate for Q2 2026 GDP on 30 Sep 2026, revealing an upwardly revised annualized growth rate of 2.2%.

It is +0.1% QoQ higher than Q1 2026’s 2.1% and coming in higher than economists' expectations of 1.5%.

Taken together with the final second-quarter reading, it suggests the US economy grew at a rate of about 2.15% in H1 2026.

The revision of +0.7% was driven by upward adjustments to (a) investment, (b) consumer spending, and (c) government spending.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).

The 30 Sep 2026 PCE report revealed that August 2026’s inflation rose less than expected.

Headline inflation.

• MoM : rose to +0.3%, in lined with market consensus and was higher than July 2026’s downwards revised +0.1%.

• YoY : rose to +3.4%, lower than market consensus of +3.7% and in lined with July 2026’s downwards revised +3.4%.

Core inflation:

• MoM : rose to +0.2%, lower than market estimates of +0.3% and higher than July 2026’s downwards revised +0.1%.

• YoY : rose to +3.0%, lower than market estimates of +3.3% and in lined with July 2026’s downwards revised +3.0%.

While annual increases were less than expected, they came as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) changed the way it computes several components of the index.

The BEA adjusted methodology for how it measures prices for (i) legal services, (ii) software & computer accessories and (iii) portfolio management.

The revisions also lowered the core July PCE level by -0.36%.

Both PCE levels are still considerably higher than US central bank’s 2% target, raising the possibility that the Fed will follow up its September interest rate hike with another increase at either of its remaining meetings this year — in October or, more likely, December.

Overall, US economy is still running hot, policy remains easy, and the Fed’s challenge is to figure out, how much restraint is needed.

This could become a tailwind for US stocks as we move into the last quarter of 2026.

Jobless Claims.

US jobless claims reports were released on 01 Oct 2026.

On 01 Oct 2026, US Dept of Labour released its weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.

The report painted a picture of a robust, late-cycle labour market where corporate layoffs remain near 57-year lows, despite companies showing increasing caution regarding new hiring.

Weekly.

For week ending 26 Sep 2026, weekly jobless claims fell by -1,000 to 198,000 claims, lower than forecast 201,000 and prior week's upwardly revised 198,000. (see below)

The 4-week moving average that smooths out weekly anomalies caused by holidays or erratic short-term shifts, came in at 200,000.

This represents a healthy decrease of -2,500 compared to the prior week's revised baseline average of 202,500.

Continuing.

For week ending 19 Sep 2026, US continuing claims decreased by -11,000 to 1.701 million. (see above)

This is the lowest overall level recorded for continuing claims since April 2023.

Compared to market estimates of 1.740 million, latest readings massively outperformed projections and prior week's downwards revised 1.712 million.

Its 4-week moving average decreased to 1,723,750. When stacked up against the previous week’s moving average of 1,744,000, the baseline trend improved by 20,250 claims.

All in all, the dual beat in initial and continuing claims indicates that downside to US labour market remains tightly protected.

Non-Farm Payroll.

On Fri, 02 Oct 2026 - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the much-awaited US nonfarm payroll (NFP) report for August 2026.

It was a decidedly weak report that significantly missed Wall Street's expectations across all major metrics.

Employment report.

Headline payroll came in at +29,000, falling short of market estimates of 89,000 and July 2026’s downwards revised 133,00.

While layoffs remain low, nominal addition of just 29,000 jobs indicates ‘serious’ caution among corporate employers grappling with rising operating costs.

Hiring momentum was narrowly isolated in data-center construction, healthcare, and manufacturing, while the government and services sectors shed workers.

Job growth was concentrated in just a few areas like (i) data-centre construction, (ii) healthcare and (iii) manufacturing.

At the same time, (iv) the government and (v) service industries both lost workers.

On a grimmer note, unemployment rate rose marginally by +0.1% to 4.2% from July 2026’s 4.1%.

According to the report, the upward ticked, was primarily driven by a growing workforce influx.

Last but not least, wage growth cooled to its lowest annual pace of +3.0% YoY, since May 2021.

Summary.

The US economy is sending a deliberately mixed message: it is neither breaking down nor convincingly reaccelerating.

This is what makes current phase difficult for investors.

Strength in one indicator can be offset by weakness in another, leaving markets highly sensitive to each new release and to how policymakers interpret the balance of risks.

Having shared so many US economic reports, week in week out, month in month out, I think the more important takeaway is - the path ahead may depend less on whether growth is “good” or “bad” and more on whether it becomes balanced enough to sustain expansion without reigniting inflation. Agree ?

After tracking these economic reports releases for a while, I think the main takeaway is straight forward.

That is - future success depends less on whether economic growth is strong or weak, and more on whether it stays steady enough to keep growing without pushing inflation back up. Agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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