10/8 Strategy Outlook | Tech Stocks: Guard Against Pullback
① What's Happening Today
Key Summary: Geopolitical risk heats up, oil prices spike, short-term pressure on tech stocks rises.
Trump's team is considering military action against Iran, combined with increasing attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, driving risk-off sentiment. Crude oil rose about 5% in a single day, and Treasury yields also moved higher.
The tech sector is diverging:
Samsung's results slightly beat lowered expectations, but the stock still fell 2%. TSMC's September revenue grew 54.6% YoY, yet the stock fell 1% — showing the market currently cares more about "whether the good news is already priced in."
The AI theme still has capital support: GOOGL rose about 1% on Gemini enterprise agent news. Meanwhile, Broadcom and Oracle are participating in over $50 billion in OpenAI chip financing, extending the AI compute investment story.
One-sentence summary: Macro is creating risk, AI fundamentals remain strong, but tech stocks are starting to show "good news doesn't lift prices" pressure in the short term.
② What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against
Buy Side: Betting on AMD and financials to stay strong through earnings, while clearly buying insurance for tech and semiconductors.
AMD | 10/30 640 Call $AMD 20261030 640.0 CALL$
— 1,892 contracts, notional ~$5.7895 million, stock price ~$640.03
→ Directly betting on AMD breaking higher, with $640 becoming a key short-term bull-bear level.
MS | 10/16 197.5/200 Call $MS 20261016 200.0 CALL$
— ~10,000 contracts, notional ~$1.32 million, stock price ~$189.71
→ Betting on earnings expectations, with the core target being a break above $200.
QQQ | 10/16 746 Put $QQQ 20261016 746.0 PUT$
— 8,000 contracts, notional ~$4.12 million, stock price ~$752.93
→ Short-term tech index defensive trade, focused on guarding against QQQ breaking below 750.
SMH | 10/16 605 Put $SMH 20261016 605.0 PUT$
— ~6,000 contracts, notional ~$3.33 million, stock price ~$624.20
→ Clear semiconductor pullback protection, with $605 becoming an important short-term defense level.
Sell Side: Collecting premium on deep OTM Puts in some names, but still cautious on bond rebound and short-term tech.
SKHY | 11/20 140 Put $SKHY 20261120 140.0 PUT$
— ~4,000 contracts, notional ~$470,000, stock price ~$178.55
→ Strike well below current price — mainly betting that a major drop is unlikely while earning time value.
WFC | 10/30 72 Put $WFC 20261030 72.0 PUT$
— 4,000 contracts, notional ~$110,000, stock price ~$80.28
→ Selling Puts around the earnings date, believing a sharp post-earnings drop below $72 is unlikely.
BA | 11/13 165 Put $BA 20261113 165.0 PUT$
— 7,500 contracts, notional ~$900,000, stock price ~$187.29
→ Deep OTM Put sale, betting Boeing won't see a major short-term decline.
TLT | 10/16 77 Call $TLT 20261016 77.0 CALL$
— 10,000 contracts, notional ~$670,000, stock price ~$76.86
→ Selling Calls to cap bond ETF upside, showing capital isn't aggressive on the short-term rate-cut trade.
③ Where to Watch the Relevant Tickers
QQQ: Focus on the 750 area.
On one hand, there's a large protective 746 Put; on the other, the 10/8-expiring 748 Put saw both buyers and sellers participating, indicating intense short-term bull-bear battle here. If tech continues under pressure and 750 breaks, volatility could expand further.
SMH: Focus on 605.
Semiconductors have seen consecutive 575, 590, and 605 Put buys, and in large size — showing capital isn't just guarding against one day's volatility, but against further semiconductor pullback over the next 1–2 weeks.
AMD: Focus on 640.
The 640 Call at nearly $5.8 million is one of today's clearest tech bullish bets. If the stock holds above 640, the bullish trend remains; if it fails to push higher, watch for rapid retreat of high-level options capital.
MS: Focus on 197.5–200.
Capital is clearly positioning around earnings — the core isn't betting on a normal rise, but on a break above $200 after earnings. With 10/16 expiry approaching, if the stock can't break through, the Call's time decay will accelerate.
TLT: Focus on 77.
Selling the 77 Call shows capital isn't willing to chase bond upside for now. Combined with rising yields, today watch whether oil price gains further push up inflation concerns, thereby suppressing rate-cut expectations.
④ What to Watch Pre-Market Today
QQQ / Nasdaq Tech:
Focus on whether the 750 area holds. Geopolitical risk + rising oil prices are today's biggest macro variables. If risk-off sentiment continues, tech could become the direction for capital reduction.
SMH / Semiconductors:
Focus on support near 605. Samsung and TSMC saw "decent results but falling stock prices," combined with heavy SMH Puts — showing semiconductors need to guard against a pullback after good news is realized in the short term.
AMD:
Watch whether the 640 breakout is valid. This is both near the current price and where large Call bets are concentrated.
MS:
Watch $200. Earnings expectations have already been traded ahead by capital — what really needs watching is whether earnings can push the stock above 200.
Crude Oil / TLT:
Watch whether oil prices continue rising, and whether TLT can hold above 77. The former determines inflation and risk-off pressure; the latter reflects the market's repricing of rate direction.
One-Sentence Read
Today isn't simply about being bearish on tech — it's "AI's long-term logic remains, but short-term capital is guarding against pullback first": AMD/MS betting on breakouts, QQQ/SMH buying Puts for downside protection, and the oil price spike is today's biggest external risk variable.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
