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US Stocks Are Heading for a High-Stakes Showdown, as Strong Earnings Collide with Rising Borrowing Costs

The idea that the AI trade has been mostly immune to rising bond yields isn’t quite right, one strategist notes.

US Stocks Are Heading for a High-Stakes Showdown, as Strong Earnings Collide with Rising Borrowing Costs

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The war with Iran has pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory, putting even more pressure on consumers already struggling with high prices. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes and bonds have risen to their highest levels in decades, adding yet another headwind.</p><p>Rising yields have helped to accentuate a growing divide in the U.S. equity market. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok recently pointed out that the market has fractured into two camps: AI stocks, and non-AI stocks. Beginning in August, the rally started to narrow. Major indexes appeared to hold up, even as a majority of stocks struggled.</p><p>Things seemed mostly contained until this past week, when stocks tied to the AI trade suddenly hit the skids. Helping to underscore the sense of panic, Treasury yields dropped, even as oil prices continued higher. Investors responded by shifting back into stocks and sectors that had struggled in the face of rising interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For months, investors remained so fixated on earnings that AI stocks mostly sidestepped the pain felt by shares of small-capitalization companies and other more interest-rate-sensitive names. But with investors now increasingly willing to question the AI-driven growth story, the bar for these stocks to continue higher has been raised.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After a flurry of early reports from major banks and consumer-focused companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">PepsiCo</a> failed to impress, the onus is falling on the major AI beneficiaries to restore investor confidence with this next batch of guidance and results.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Skepticism is on the rise,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As bond yields continued higher on Friday, the market appeared headed for a tug-of-war between two powerful opposing forces. On the one hand, earnings growth has reached a blistering pace typically only seen during the early stages of an economic recovery. On the other, the forces pushing bond yields higher appear unlikely to abate any time soon, said Michael Monaghan, a portfolio manager of the Founders 100 ETF.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“There’s a tension in the marketplace in that, even though the market is up year to date, it’s considerably cheaper versus forecasts for next year’s earnings,” Monaghan told MarketWatch on Friday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although prices have held up, valuations — that is, how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of expected earnings — have slumped. As of Friday, the S&amp;P 500 was trading at 19 times expected consensus earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet data.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42d8ed0184350520720dbe3f9ad20858\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"691\"/></p><p>Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, told MarketWatch that the idea that tech stocks are immune to the growing macro pressures isn’t quite right.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Think of it as a dynamic where earnings growth goes in the numerator and the cost of capital goes in the denominator. Right now, earnings are growing by leaps and bounds, but the cost of capital is rising as well,” Timmer said during an interview with MarketWatch. “It becomes a race between the two over which one affects stock prices more.”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Stocks Are Heading for a High-Stakes Showdown, as Strong Earnings Collide with Rising Borrowing Costs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Stocks Are Heading for a High-Stakes Showdown, as Strong Earnings Collide with Rising Borrowing Costs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-19 16:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wall Street is heading for a high-stakes showdown, as booming corporate earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Professional analysts expect corporate earnings will continue to soar, driven by the ongoing build-out of the data centers needed to power artificial-intelligence technology.</p><p>These great expectations have helped major indexes like the S&amp;P 500 surmount a number of obstacles this year. The war with Iran has pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory, putting even more pressure on consumers already struggling with high prices. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes and bonds have risen to their highest levels in decades, adding yet another headwind.</p><p>Rising yields have helped to accentuate a growing divide in the U.S. equity market. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok recently pointed out that the market has fractured into two camps: AI stocks, and non-AI stocks. Beginning in August, the rally started to narrow. Major indexes appeared to hold up, even as a majority of stocks struggled.</p><p>Things seemed mostly contained until this past week, when stocks tied to the AI trade suddenly hit the skids. Helping to underscore the sense of panic, Treasury yields dropped, even as oil prices continued higher. Investors responded by shifting back into stocks and sectors that had struggled in the face of rising interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">For months, investors remained so fixated on earnings that AI stocks mostly sidestepped the pain felt by shares of small-capitalization companies and other more interest-rate-sensitive names. But with investors now increasingly willing to question the AI-driven growth story, the bar for these stocks to continue higher has been raised.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">After a flurry of early reports from major banks and consumer-focused companies like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">PepsiCo</a> failed to impress, the onus is falling on the major AI beneficiaries to restore investor confidence with this next batch of guidance and results.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Skepticism is on the rise,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As bond yields continued higher on Friday, the market appeared headed for a tug-of-war between two powerful opposing forces. On the one hand, earnings growth has reached a blistering pace typically only seen during the early stages of an economic recovery. On the other, the forces pushing bond yields higher appear unlikely to abate any time soon, said Michael Monaghan, a portfolio manager of the Founders 100 ETF.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“There’s a tension in the marketplace in that, even though the market is up year to date, it’s considerably cheaper versus forecasts for next year’s earnings,” Monaghan told MarketWatch on Friday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Although prices have held up, valuations — that is, how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of expected earnings — have slumped. As of Friday, the S&amp;P 500 was trading at 19 times expected consensus earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet data.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42d8ed0184350520720dbe3f9ad20858\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"691\"/></p><p>Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, told MarketWatch that the idea that tech stocks are immune to the growing macro pressures isn’t quite right.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Think of it as a dynamic where earnings growth goes in the numerator and the cost of capital goes in the denominator. Right now, earnings are growing by leaps and bounds, but the cost of capital is rising as well,” Timmer said during an interview with MarketWatch. “It becomes a race between the two over which one affects stock prices more.”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","WSDB":"Weitz Short Duration Bond ETF","STXT":"STRIVE TOTAL RETURN BOND ETF","YFYA":"Yields for You Strategy A ETF","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","JPIE":"JPMorgan Income ETF","BK4588":"碎股","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","RGLO":"Global Equity Active ETF","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DWFI":"SPDR Dorsey Wright Fixed Income Allocation ETF","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IE0000B7K699.USD":"RQI GLOBAL \"I\" (USD) INC","IE000BZT7R73.USD":"RQI GLOBAL \"I\" (USD) ACC","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B3T34201.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","FTXG":"First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF","EQRR":"ProShares Equities for Rising Rates ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","FEBU":"AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer15 Uncapped Feb ETF","GTOC":"Invesco Core Fixed Income ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IE000WAW04H5.SGD":"RQI GLOBAL \"I\" (SGD) INC A","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","IE000SO60NU8.SGD":"RQI GLOBAL \"I\" (SGDHDG) ACC A","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","DIVZ":"TrueShares Low Volatility Equity Income ETF","MILK":"Pacer US Cash Cows Bond ETF","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","AFIF":"Anfield Universal Fixed Income Etf","AFIX":"Allspring Broad Market Core Bond Etf","BK4177":"软饮料","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","FARX":"Frontier Asset Absolute Return ETF","IUSB":"iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF","VOTE":"TCW Transform 500 ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","IBDT":"iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term Corporate ETF","PMDE":"PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","VGFPF":"Vanguard Funds PLC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","JOYT":"JPMorgan Equity and Options Total Return ETF","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","BKFI":"BNY Mellon Active Core Bond ETF","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","JIII":"Janus Henderson Income ETF","GXDW":"Global X Dorsey Wright Thematic ETF","DECU":"AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer15 Uncapped Dec ETF","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2676527122","content_text":"Wall Street is heading for a high-stakes showdown, as booming corporate earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields.Professional analysts expect corporate earnings will continue to soar, driven by the ongoing build-out of the data centers needed to power artificial-intelligence technology.These great expectations have helped major indexes like the S&P 500 surmount a number of obstacles this year. The war with Iran has pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory, putting even more pressure on consumers already struggling with high prices. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes and bonds have risen to their highest levels in decades, adding yet another headwind.Rising yields have helped to accentuate a growing divide in the U.S. equity market. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok recently pointed out that the market has fractured into two camps: AI stocks, and non-AI stocks. Beginning in August, the rally started to narrow. Major indexes appeared to hold up, even as a majority of stocks struggled.Things seemed mostly contained until this past week, when stocks tied to the AI trade suddenly hit the skids. Helping to underscore the sense of panic, Treasury yields dropped, even as oil prices continued higher. Investors responded by shifting back into stocks and sectors that had struggled in the face of rising interest rates.For months, investors remained so fixated on earnings that AI stocks mostly sidestepped the pain felt by shares of small-capitalization companies and other more interest-rate-sensitive names. But with investors now increasingly willing to question the AI-driven growth story, the bar for these stocks to continue higher has been raised.After a flurry of early reports from major banks and consumer-focused companies like PepsiCo failed to impress, the onus is falling on the major AI beneficiaries to restore investor confidence with this next batch of guidance and results.“Skepticism is on the rise,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.As bond yields continued higher on Friday, the market appeared headed for a tug-of-war between two powerful opposing forces. On the one hand, earnings growth has reached a blistering pace typically only seen during the early stages of an economic recovery. On the other, the forces pushing bond yields higher appear unlikely to abate any time soon, said Michael Monaghan, a portfolio manager of the Founders 100 ETF.“There’s a tension in the marketplace in that, even though the market is up year to date, it’s considerably cheaper versus forecasts for next year’s earnings,” Monaghan told MarketWatch on Friday.Although prices have held up, valuations — that is, how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of expected earnings — have slumped. As of Friday, the S&P 500 was trading at 19 times expected consensus earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet data.Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, told MarketWatch that the idea that tech stocks are immune to the growing macro pressures isn’t quite right.“Think of it as a dynamic where earnings growth goes in the numerator and the cost of capital goes in the denominator. Right now, earnings are growing by leaps and bounds, but the cost of capital is rising as well,” Timmer said during an interview with MarketWatch. “It becomes a race between the two over which one affects stock prices more.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IVV":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"GXDW":0.9,"SPUU":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IUSB":0.65,"SPDN":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"CHAT":0.75,"SDS":0.6,"BKFI":0.65,"JIII":0.65,"DWFI":0.65,"YSPY":0.6,"IBDT":0.65,"AFIF":0.65,"SDOW":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"AGIX":0.75,"JOYT":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"GTOC":0.65,"UPRO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"DECU":0.9,"SPXL":0.6,"STXT":0.65,"SPXS":0.6,"VGFPF":0.9,"SPYH":0.6,"EQRR":0.75,"DOG":0.6,"DIVZ":0.65,".SPX":2,"AFIX":0.65,"FEBU":0.9,"QTOC":0.86,"VTHR":0.75,"MMAX":0.6,"JPIE":0.65,"AIPO":0.75,"DXD":0.6,"FTXG":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"WSDB":0.65,"ARTY":0.75,"SH":0.6,"MILK":0.65,"VOTE":0.9,"RGLO":0.9,"PMDE":0.9,"VOO":0.6,"FARX":0.65,"DMAX":0.6,"YFYA":0.65,".IXIC":2,"DIA":0.6,".DJI":2,"HIBL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":35,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}