K-Yong Kan's Playbook: Putting It All Together – A Trade Idea That Wasn't Taken
Speaker: K-Yong Kan, Investment Representative at Tiger Brokers, closes Trading 101 Part 2a with the charting tools on Tiger Trade and a real SPY example where the best decision was to wait.
[About the Speaker] K-Yong Kan is an Investment Representative at Tiger Brokers who built the Trading 101 series to help clients learn trading and investing step by step. This is the last of four recaps from Part 2a, Chart Patterns & Candlesticks.
[The Hook] After chart types, levels, patterns and timeframes, K-Yong walked the room through a real example from around late August or early September. The twist: the lesson was a trade he did not take.
[First, Learn to Draw It]
K-Yong's point: all the theory only helps if you can mark it on a chart. Drawing support and resistance and outlining patterns makes them easier to see and gives you more clarity when trading.
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On mobile (Tiger Trade): open the drawing tools on the chart, tap one point and then another to create a line, then drag to adjust it into a trendline. Use the horizontal line for support and resistance levels. Since the phone screen is small, you may need to nudge lines with your thumb.
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On desktop (Tiger Trade): there are more tools, including chart patterns and price ranges. K-Yong pointed out that the price range tool is handy for drawing support and resistance as a zone rather than a single line.
[The Setup: An Inverse Cup & Handle on SPY]
On the SPY 1-hour chart (SPY is the ETF that tracks the S&P 500), K-Yong spotted an inverse cup and handle, a pattern that may point to a downside scenario. The obvious idea: short it.
[Zoom Out Before You Pull the Trigger]
But a single timeframe isn't enough. On the 4-hour chart, price had just bounced off the previous descending trendline, which may have turned from resistance into support. The daily chart looked similar. With the timeframes pulling in different directions, K-Yong chose to pause and wait for more confirmation, because shorting now could mean getting caught on a bounce.
[The Conditional Plan]
Instead of acting, he wrote an if-then plan. A trader might consider entering a short if price fell back through the descending trendline, meaning the earlier break above had failed and price dropped back into the channel. The take-profit would be around the middle of the channel, with a maximum target at the bottom of the descending channel.
[Two Days Later...]
The upper trendline of the descending channel held as support. Price bounced and traded higher. A trader who had shorted without confirmation would likely have been on the wrong side of the move. K-Yong's summary: he was glad he waited. (This example is for education, not a recommendation to trade.)
[What's Next in Trading 101]
Charts show you price, but not how strong a trend is. K-Yong explained that when a trend is strong a continuation is more likely, and when it weakens a reversal is more likely. That is why the next session, Part 2b, covers commonly used indicators and oscillators. The series then moves on to Fundamental & Sentiment Analysis and Trading Psychology.
[Key Takeaways]
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Draw it so you can see it. Charting tools turn theory into something you can check.
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One timeframe is not a trade. Check the others for confluence before you act.
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Plan in if-then terms. Decide the confirmation, the target and the invalidation level in advance.
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Not trading is a decision too. Sometimes the best trade is the one you skip.
[Call to Action 🎯]
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Pick an index ETF you follow and look at its 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts. Note any pattern and the key levels you see.
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Write one if-then plan: what confirmation would you wait for, and where would the idea be invalid?
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Drop a comment: what confirmation would you wait for before acting?
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一、3种图表有什么分别?
图表
最容易看懂什么?
折线图
股票整体是上涨还是下跌
条形图
开盘、最高、最低、收盘价
K线图(蜡烛图)
价格变化、买卖力量和波动
新手建议:先学折线图,再学K线图。 K线图的信息比较丰富,更适合进一步学习买卖时机。
二、什么是支撑位和阻力位?
想象股票价格像一个球,在地板和天花板之间弹跳。
支撑位=地板: 股价跌到某个区域后,买家增加,股价可能反弹。
阻力位=天花板: 股价涨到某个区域后,卖家增加,股价可能回落。
例如,一只股票过去多次跌到 US$100 附近就反弹,那么 US$100 附近可能是支撑区。
如果它多次涨到 US$120 附近就回落,那么 US$120 附近可能是阻力区。
注意:支撑位和阻力位不是绝对的,股价也可能直接跌破或突破。
三、什么是趋势线?
上涨趋势: 高点越来越高,低点也越来越高。
下跌趋势: 高点越来越低,低点也越来越低。
横盘趋势: 股价大部分时间在一个范围内上下波动。
如果股价跌破上升趋势线,代表上涨可能正在减弱,但不代表一定会下跌。
四、新手如何实际运用?
记住这个简单方法:
看趋势:股价整体向上还是向下?
找支撑:过去哪里经常出现反弹?
找阻力:过去哪里经常出现回落?
看突破:股价突破后,有没有持续站稳?
控制风险:买入前先想好,判断错误时在哪里止损。
最重要:不要只因为股价跌到支撑位就买入,也不要只因为突破阻力位就追高。
如果让我选择,我会用QQQ作为观察对象,采用日线判断趋势、4小时图确认关键结构、1小时图寻找入场信号的方式,而不是看到一个看跌形态就立即做空。
我的交易计划主要分成三步。
第一,先确认大周期是否支持交易方向。
假设QQQ的1小时图出现头肩顶或倒置杯柄等看跌形态,但日线仍然保持更高的高点和更高的低点,4小时图又恰好回踩前期突破的阻力区,我不会立即买入SQQQ。
因为短周期看跌形态可能只是大级别上涨趋势中的正常回调。
第二,等待有效突破,而不是只看价格瞬间穿越趋势线。
例如,价格跌破关键支撑区后,我更希望看到1小时K线收盘确认、成交量放大,并且随后反弹无法重新站回原支撑区。
如果支撑转为阻力,同时4小时图也出现结构走弱,做空逻辑才更有说服力。
但如果价格迅速收复支撑,甚至突破前一个短期高点,就意味着原先的看跌判断可能失效。
第三,入场之前先决定哪里认错。
我会提前设定止损位置、目标区域和最大可承受亏损,而不是等到买入后再根据盈亏调整理由。
尤其对于TQQQ、SQQQ这类三倍杠杆ETF,短期波动和每日再平衡会放大交易风险。即使方向判断正确,如果入场过早,也可能先遭遇较大回撤。
另外,我不会机械地认为三个时间周期必须完全一致。日线、4小时和1小时图反映的是不同交易群体的行为,出现分歧很正常。关键是明确自己交易的是哪个周期,并且不能让小周期信号轻易推翻大周期趋势。
我的具体“如果—那么”计划是:
如果日线趋势仍然向上,4小时支撑有效,那么即使1小时出现看跌形态,我也选择观望。
如果4小时关键支撑被有效跌破,反弹确认受阻,且日线结构同步转弱,那么才考虑小仓位参与下跌行情。
如果价格重新站稳失守的关键区域,那么看跌交易逻辑失效,及时退出,而不是继续加仓等待。
我最认同这节课的一句话:不交易也是一种决定。
市场每天都有机会,但并不是每个机会都值得承担风险。成熟的交易者不需要预测每一次涨跌,而是等待价格走势与自己的交易计划一致时才行动。
少做没有确认的交易,可能比多抓几次短线波动更有价值。 🐯