$NU 20261030 12.0 PUT$ Nu Holdings (NU) — Is It a Buy Now?

Short answer: this is no longer a "clean" fundamental story — it's a macro/political event story. The company's business momentum is strong, but the stock just lost ~19% in a single session (2026-10-26) on a Brazil election shock, and the near-term path depends on variables that have nothing to do with Nubank's execution. Whether that makes it attractive depends on your time horizon and tolerance for country risk.

What just happened

[NU (Nu Holdings)](symbol:NU|Nu Holdings (NU)) closed at $12.235 on 2026-10-26, down -19.29% from the prior close of $15.16, on volume of ~219.6M shares — roughly 2.75x its 90-day average of ~79.7M. The move was sector-wide, not company-specific: Brazilian banks sold off broadly (Banco do Brasil ~-31%, Bradesco ~-26%, Inter ~-34%) after Lula won the presidential runoff 51.8% to 48.2% , upending the market-favoured "Bolsonaro trade"

Tiger News

. The real fell sharply (SocGen projected 8–10% BRL depreciation) and Brazil swap rates jumped ~200bp . JPMorgan downgraded BRL and rates to market-weight on election risk .

This matters mechanically: Nu reports in USD but earns mostly in BRL, so a weaker real directly compresses translated revenue and earnings, and higher domestic rates raise funding costs and pressure credit quality.

The fundamentals are genuinely strong

The Q2 2026 (period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-13) numbers were excellent:

Metric 2026Q2 YoY

Total revenue $4.76B +52.2%

Net interest income $3.20B +52.7%

Net income $1.06B +66.5%

EPS $0.22 +65.4%

ROE 32.9% —

Net margin 42.9% —

Revenue growth has actually accelerated across the last five quarters (14.2% → 36.3% → 43.9% → 43.8% → 52.2%), and net income growth has run 30.7% → 41.4% → 61.5% → 56.5% → 66.5%. ROE of ~33% is exceptional for a bank, and the fundamental scorecard ranks profitability in the 92nd percentile and growth in the 82nd percentile of its 306-name industry group. Q2 also saw NIM recover to ~12.4% and customer count continue double-digit growth

Xueqiu

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Valuation: cheap vs. its own history, but not vs. the risk

P/E TTM: 16.7 (EPS TTM $0.73); P/B: 4.47 ; P/S: 7.02

Forward P/E: 17.4 (latest), versus a historical average of 24.7 and a -1σ band of 17.7 — i.e. it's now trading below its own one-standard-deviation cheap level

PE percentile within its own history: 29.6th percentile (low band 16.4, median 24.2)

So on its own history the stock is objectively de-rated. But note the trap: P/B of 4.5x on a Brazilian bank is not "cheap" in absolute terms — it's a premium multiple that assumes continued high growth and controlled credit costs. If BRL depreciation and rising default rates hit earnings, the "cheap" P/E can re-rate upward on a falling E.

Analyst positioning

18 analysts: 72% buy, 11% hold, 5.6% sell (mean label BUY). Mean target $18.80 (low $12.00, high $23.00) — implying ~+53.7% to the mean, though that consensus was set before the election shock. UBS raised its target to $20.50 from $18.20 with a Buy rating on 2026-10-20

Tiger News

, also pre-election. Treat these as stale.

Technical picture

The stock is deeply oversold short-term: RSI6 at 20.7, RSI12 at 31.6 (2026-10-26), MACD flipped negative (DIF -0.027 vs DEA 0.161). Price at $12.235 sits at the 13.3rd percentile of its 52-week range ($11.20 low / $18.98 high), only +9.2% above the 52-week low and -35.5% below the high . The 20-day MA is $14.61 and the 30-day MA $14.30 — both far above spot. Note the stock had already been volatile: it fell from $16.22 (Aug 14 high) to $12.23 by Sep 28, rallied back to $16.12 by Oct 9, and has now given it all back.

The two-sided case

Constructive: You're buying a high-growth, high-ROE franchise at its lowest valuation in its listed history, after a macro shock rather than a company-specific failure. Q2 execution was strong, the US expansion (Nu Global multi-currency accounts) opens a new growth vector

Xueqiu

, and the balance sheet is not a solvency concern.

Cautious: The de-rating is rational, not a mispricing — the earnings base itself is now at risk. Two things could invalidate the bull case: (1) sustained BRL weakness and higher Brazilian rates compressing USD-reported earnings and raising funding costs/default rates; (2) credit deterioration — Nu deliberately lends into higher-risk segments, and its Q2 provision for loan losses already rose 24.9% QoQ to $1.48B; a weaker consumer backdrop in Brazil could accelerate that. The CTO departure reported alongside the selloff adds a governance/execution overhang

Tiger News

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What to watch

2026-11-12 (post-market): Q3 2026 earnings — the first read on how BRL weakness and rates flow through to NIM, provisions and USD earnings.

BRL/USD and Brazilian swap rates — the primary driver of translated earnings.

Non-performing loan / provision trends — the key credit-quality gauge.

Whether the $11.20 52-week low holds as support.

Bottom line: This is a "quality franchise, macro-driven dislocation" setup, not a straightforward value call. The bull case requires you to underwrite Brazilian political/currency risk, and the 2026-11-12 earnings report is the next hard checkpoint. It is not a case where the fundamentals alone settle the question.

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.