$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ $Lumentum(LITE)$ If the deal closes on typical terms, most of the damage already looks priced in, which would put MRVL around $205–230. A bad deal paired with weak AI sentiment could drag it down to roughly $190–200.
The dilution math:
• Before the news, MRVL was worth about $221B (~$252/share). LITE is worth about $83B.
• A typical 30–40% takeover premium means paying roughly $108–116B in new MRVL shares, around 430–460M new shares on top of roughly 880M existing.
• Combined value ($221B + $83B) divided by about 1.31–1.34B shares comes to about $227–233 per share.
• If you treat LITE as overvalued (Morningstar thinks it's about 20% above fair value), that drops to about $214–219.
Key point: At $209, MRVL has already lost about $38B in value, which is more than the estimated cost of the premium. The market is already pricing in a fairly bad deal.
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