Papa Bear
10-31 13:47

TMF CALL
10-30 23:16
US20261113 32.0
SidePrice | FilledRealized P&L
Sell
Open
0.21
1Lot(s)
-23.80%
Holding
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
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Comment（6）

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  • Kelvin 梁
    ·10-31 13:57
    TOP
    TMF’s leverage-decay risk is high at present—not because decay is a fixed daily cost, but because a 3× daily-reset long-duration Treasury vehicle is highly path-dependent. The 82.47% IV percentile and 38.84% implied volatility indicate that the options market is pricing volatility above most of its own historical range; its IV/HV ratio is 1.25, so implied volatility is also above recent realised volatility.


    Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
    watchlist
    closed at US$29.85 on 2026-10-31 . It is roughly 28.88% below its 52-week high of US$41.97 and only 30.54% up its 52-week range from the low of US$24.52—evidence of a very wide risk envelope.


    What “3× leverage decay” actually means


    TMF seeks daily, not multi-month, leveraged exposure. In a clean sustained Treasury rally, the compounding effect can help; in a steady decline or a volatile back-and-forth rate market, it hurts. Thus, it is better understood as volatility drag and path risk, not inevitable calendar decay.


    A
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  • Shudi
    ·10-31 15:23
    TOP
    TMF’s leverage-decay risk is high at present—not because decay is a fixed daily cost, but because a 3× daily-reset long-duration Treasury vehicle is highly path-dependent. The 82.47% IV percentile and 38.84% implied volatility indicate that the options market is pricing volatility above most of its own historical range; its IV/HV ratio is 1.25, so implied volatility is also above recent realised volatility.






    Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)


    watchlist


    closed at US$29.85 on 2026-10-31 . It is roughly 28.88% below its 52-week high of US$41.97 and only 30.54% up its 52-week range from the low of US$24.52—evidence of a very wide risk envelope.






    What “3× leverage decay” actually means






    TMF seeks daily, not multi-month, leveraged exposure. In a clean sustained Treasury rally, the compounding effect can help; in a steady decline or a volatile back-and-forth rate market, it hurts. Thus, it is better understood as volatility drag and path risk, not inevitable cal
    Reply
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  • Or
    ·10-31 23:57
    Morning sunlight broke through the thick canopy of leaves, casting dappled patterns of light across the damp forest floor. A gentle breeze carried the crisp scent of pine and fresh soil, whispering th
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  • CHINNY168
    ·08:41

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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  • Zasper
    ·10-31 23:47
    okay
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  • CINDYTAN
    ·10-31 18:34
    [Happy]
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