$ONDS 20261113 5.0 PUT$ Base case: Ondas is more likely to miss than beat the current Q3 EPS consensus of -$0.138 , although the unusually wide estimate range means a small beat remains plausible if acquisition-related costs were materially lower than analysts expect.

[Symbol:ONDS|Ondas Holdings (ONDS)] is due to report 2026Q3 on 2026-11-12 before the US market opens . Consensus is for revenue of $148.0 million and EPS of -$0.138 (nine analysts), with EPS estimates spanning -$0.19 to -$0.08 .

Why I lean toward a miss:

The Q2 miss was substantial, not marginal. EPS was -$0.14 versus -$0.081 expected: a $0.059/share shortfall, or 72.8% worse than consensus (calculator result). At the same time, Q2 revenue beat by $15.8 million , so stronger sales did not translate into expected per-share profitability.

The pattern has been weak. Ondas has beaten EPS in only one of the last five reported quarters, a 20.0% beat rate (calculator result). The other four reports missed, including Q1 and Q2 2026.

Q3 expectations require a sharp revenue step-up. The $148.0 million consensus is 76.7% above Q2’s $83.8 million (calculator result). That is achievable only if newly acquired businesses, defense orders, and backlog convert to revenue quickly and without another large step-up in operating, integration, or non-cash acquisition expenses.

The Q2 income statement showed earnings-conversion strain. Revenue was $83.8 million and gross profit $36.1 million, but operating income was -$139.3 million and net income attributable to common shareholders was -$88.2 million . This highlights that the key Q3 variable is not demand alone, but the cost of scaling and integrating the enlarged group.

The balance sheet provides liquidity but does not eliminate execution risk. At 2026-06-30, cash and equivalents were $657.9 million , with $1.38 billion including short-term investments. That helps fund operations and acquisitions, but it does not guarantee near-term EPS conversion.

What could produce a beat: Q2 revenue exceeded consensus by 23.2%, and Ondas has announced additional defense-related orders and partnerships. If Q3 revenue lands near the high end of the $140.1–151.0 million consensus range and gross margin holds near Q2’s approximately 43%, while deal/integration costs normalize, EPS could be less negative than -$0.138. Recent reporting also indicates investor attention is focused on whether the large order pipeline is converting into revenue and margin.

Tiger News

Tiger News

Most useful items to monitor in the release

Revenue versus the $148.0 million consensus and whether management provides a quantified Q4 outlook.

Gross margin and operating expenses—particularly acquisition, restructuring, and other non-operating items that drove the disconnect between Q2 revenue strength and EPS.

Whether management updates backlog, cash usage, and timing of profitability/adjusted EBITDA targets.

The market may be positioned for volatility rather than a clean beat: ONDS closed at $5.335 on 2026-11-07 , up 18.03% on the day, while the wide EPS forecast range signals unusually high uncertainty.

Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.