To The Moon

SpaceX investors have just experienced a wild few sessions.

November 5:

SPCX -9.05%.

Closing at:

$123.62.

November 6?

+8.62%.

Closing at:

$134.27.

And Deutsche Bank is maintaining its:

$250 PRICE TARGET.

That's approximately 86% above Friday's closing price.

So why is Wall Street suddenly so divided?

Texas is tightening restrictions on new AI data centres.

The new governor-elect wants stronger protections for electricity, water and local communities.

That sounds bearish for AI infrastructure.

But Deutsche Bank sees another possibility.

WHAT IF RESTRICTING COMPUTE SUPPLY MAKES EXISTING CAPACITY MORE VALUABLE?

I think that's a powerful argument.

But I found another number that deserves just as much attention.

$16.4 BILLION.

And it could determine whether the SpaceX AI story becomes an extraordinary investment or an expensive disappointment.

🔥 FIRST, TEXAS ISN'T SIMPLY THREATENING REGULATION

Texas already suspended new data-centre permitting in September, pending audits of power-grid and water impacts.

Following the midterm elections, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has indicated that restrictions could continue while stronger protections are developed.

Why?

ELECTRICITY DEMAND.

WATER CONSUMPTION.

GRID RELIABILITY.

COSTS PASSED TO HOUSEHOLDS.

And this is bigger than Texas.

Data centres require enormous infrastructure.

If companies cannot secure power, permits and water, buying more GPUs doesn't automatically create usable computing capacity.

AI DEMAND CAN GROW FASTER THAN THE INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDED TO SERVE IT.

That's the contradiction investors are now confronting.

🧠 WHY DEUTSCHE BANK THINKS SPACE X COULD BENEFIT

Deutsche Bank believes the political risks may be overstated.

Its argument has three parts.

🟢 SpaceX's government contracts remain strategically important to agencies such as NASA and the US military.

🟢 The bank expects most of SpaceX's planned 2027 computing capacity to be outside Texas.

🟢 If new data-centre construction slows across the industry, available computing capacity could command stronger pricing.

The bank referred to plans for approximately:

8-10 GW OF COMPUTE IN 2027.

That's a projection, not completed infrastructure.

But here's why it matters.

If demand remains strong while available computing capacity becomes scarcer?

COMPUTE PRICING POWER COULD IMPROVE.

And companies able to deliver capacity faster may gain market share.

However, scarcity only benefits SpaceX if its own projects can operate without comparable delays.

That's where the story becomes more complicated.

🚨 THE $16.4B PROBLEM MOST INVESTORS MAY OVERLOOK

Let's look at SpaceX's actual Q3 numbers.

Total revenue:

$14.6B.

Up:

161% YoY.

Operating income:

$2.8B.

Installed AI nameplate compute:

1.7 GW.

Up from 0.6 GW a year earlier.

Strong progress.

Its Super Intelligence segment, which includes AI infrastructure, Grok, Cursor and X, generated:

$7.56B IN QUARTERLY REVENUE.

But here's the number that caught my attention.

Super Intelligence capital expenditure:

$16.44B IN ONE QUARTER.

That is approximately:

2.2 TIMES ITS QUARTERLY REVENUE.

This ratio is not a measure of profit, but it illustrates the scale of investment required.

And segment operating income?

$431 MILLION.

That tells me something important.

COMPUTE DEMAND IS REAL.

But so is the cost of building the infrastructure.

And 1.7 GW represents installed nameplate computing capacity, not proof that every GPU is operating at full utilisation.

So before becoming aggressively bullish, I want evidence of:

✅ Higher utilisation

✅ Stronger revenue per unit of compute

✅ Sustainable pricing

✅ Improving cash generation

✅ Fewer construction and power delays.

There's another consideration.

SpaceX's filing indicates that some cloud-service agreements can be terminated by either party with 90 days' notice.

That offers commercial flexibility.

But it also means some revenue is less locked in than a fully non-cancellable multiyear agreement.

FLEXIBILITY CAN IMPROVE PRICING POWER.

BUT IT CAN ALSO REDUCE REVENUE VISIBILITY.

That is the trade-off.

🔵 WHY I WOULDN'T DISMISS SPACE X

SpaceX isn't simply another speculative AI data-centre developer.

It has established launch operations.

Starlink generates recurring connectivity revenue.

It serves commercial and government customers.

And its AI platform is becoming a significant part of the business.

Q3 Connectivity revenue reached approximately:

$5.25B.

That provides a substantial existing business alongside its AI expansion.

And SpaceX raised approximately $85.7B in net IPO proceeds earlier this year.

That's significant financial capacity.

But money available to invest is not the same as an unlimited economic return.

I want to see whether SpaceX can turn that investment into an enduring competitive advantage.

📍 MY SPCX PRICE PREDICTION: NOVEMBER 9-13

Friday closing reference:

$134.27.

Thursday's low:

$120.39.

Friday's high:

$135.32.

Here's my working outlook.

🟢 BULL CASE: 30%

The semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors stabilise.

Investors regain confidence in SpaceX's ability to expand outside Texas.

The stock reclaims:

$140-$142.

Potential recovery:

$148-$155.

A move toward $160 would require stronger momentum and more convincing buying.

🟡 BASE CASE: 50%

MY MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

The market remains divided between the capacity-scarcity opportunity and the enormous capital required.

SPCX trades through a volatile:

$128-$142.

I expect buyers to attempt further recovery, but resistance may appear near the previous breakdown levels.

🔴 BEAR CASE: 20%

New regulatory concerns emerge.

AI infrastructure sentiment weakens.

SPCX loses $128.

Potential retest:

$120-$124.

If Thursday's $120.39 low fails decisively, I would reassess the near-term recovery thesis.

These are subjective trading scenarios, not guaranteed price predictions.

🎯 MY TRADING PLAN

$140-$142: First meaningful recovery confirmation.

$148-$155: Bull-case target.

$130-$135: Near-term battleground.

$128-$130: Support watch.

$120-$124: Downside retest risk.

I would not chase SPCX simply because Deutsche Bank has a $250 target.

That target represents a longer-term valuation opinion.

Not a prediction for next week.

For a short-term trade, I prefer either a higher low near support or a convincing breakout above $142.

And I will be watching two macro releases.

Tuesday, November 10: US CPI.

Friday, November 13: US PPI.

If inflation surprises higher and yields rise, capital-intensive AI companies could face renewed pressure.

A more favourable inflation environment may help valuations, although it would not eliminate construction risks.

🔥 MY CALL: SPACE X MAY BENEFIT FROM THE VERY SHORTAGE THAT COULD SLOW ITS GROWTH

That's the paradox.

If regulators restrict new data-centre capacity?

Existing compute may become more valuable.

But if restrictions prevent SpaceX from delivering its own expansion?

The same policy could weaken the growth assumptions supporting its valuation.

So I don't think this is simply a choice between:

BULLISH DEUTSCHE BANK

and:

BEARISH TEXAS REGULATIONS.

The better question is:

CAN SPACE X BUILD FASTER THAN COMPETITORS AND MONETISE THAT ADVANTAGE PROFITABLY?

For next week, I favour consolidation between:

$128-$142.

Above $142 with stronger volume?

I become more constructive.

Below $128?

I become cautious.

And the number I will keep watching beyond next week?

$16.4 BILLION.

Because SpaceX may become one of the most important AI infrastructure providers in the world.

But I want proof that its enormous computing investments are creating lasting economic value.

SCARCITY CAN CREATE PRICING POWER.

ONLY EXECUTION CAN TURN IT INTO PROFIT.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

Would you buy SPCX after its sharp rebound, or wait for clearer evidence that the computing expansion can deliver profitable growth?

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