To The Moon

1. This Week's Market Overview

The biggest risk in US stocks has shifted from "AI valuations are too high" to "money is pulling out all at once."

Last week the Nasdaq fell 3.4%, its fourth straight weekly drop. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%. Tech bounced Friday, but not enough to confirm a bottom.

What's more worrying is the level of fear. On Thursday the fear gauge spiked, the VIX curve inverted, and put volume hit a record. Hedge funds and long-only money both cut tech holdings, and quant strategies face more selling pressure.

Right now, strong jobs data actually raises the odds of a Fed hike, so the market may not get policy support quickly.

The biggest variable this week is Tuesday's CPI: if inflation runs hot, it could add pressure on tech valuations. Even if inflation cools, we still need to see whether money actually stops selling.

2. This Week's Event Calendar

• Nov 9 (Mon): CRWV earnings. Focus on AI compute demand, funding costs, and data center project progress.

• Nov 10 (Tue): US October CPI. Watch whether inflation supports December rate-hike expectations. It could move both stocks and bonds.

• This week: AMAT and CSCO report. Watch semiconductor equipment demand, enterprise IT spending, and AI infrastructure orders.

• All week: Watch post-election data center regulation, CTA quant selling, and whether VIX can fall.

• Anthropic plans to start its IPO roadshow: Anthropic originally planned to start its IPO roadshow this week, but the tech crash has investors questioning its valuation, so the timeline may slip. Watch whether the IPO stays on schedule and whether the market still pays high valuations for AI growth. A delay could hurt AI sector confidence further.

3. Events and Volatility Watch

SPY | Battle for the 200-day line
This week's implied range is 716–755, IV 49.57%, historical percentile 99.60%. Current price 735.29 is below the Gamma flip point of 747.77, and negative Gamma could amplify drops. 740 is the upside Call wall, 725 is the downside Put wall.
This week: First watch whether 740 and 747.77 can be reclaimed. A break below 725 means watch for more downside.

QQQ | Tech still hasn't stopped falling
This week's implied range is 630–682, IV 53.5%, historical percentile 99.60%. Current price 656.10 is near the Gamma flip point of 656.95 and has broken below the 200-day line. 660 is the Call wall, 640 is the Put wall. Money still has large Put protection.
This week: Holding 660 and reclaiming the 200-day line would make a bounce more convincing. A break below 640 means watch for a bigger drop.

NVDA | Bounce still needs confirmation
This week's implied range is 174–200, IV 64.46%, historical percentile 99.60%. Current price 186.64 is near the Gamma flip point of 187.01. 190 is the Call wall, 180 is the Put wall. The Dec 18 120 Put bought 100K contracts shows tail-risk hedging demand.
This week: A break above 190 could improve the short-term structure. A break below 180 means watch for a faster drop. The 200-day line at 204 is still an important upside reference.

SOXL | High volatility, don't chase
This week's implied range is 35–57, IV 172.44%, historical percentile 82%. Current price 45.97 is below the Gamma flip point of 46.68, in a zone where swings can get bigger. 50 is the Call wall, 40 is the Put wall.
This week: Reclaiming 46.68 and 50 would give a clearer bounce signal. A break below 40 means watch for bigger losses in the leveraged ETF.

MU | Memory stock chopping near highs
This week's implied range is 616–764, IV 86.27%, historical percentile 72.51%. Current price 690 is near the 700 Call concentration, with heavy Put holdings at 600–610 below. The stock is below its 200-day line of 756.
This week: 700 is the short-term bullish confirmation level. 616 and 600–610 are downside risk watch zones. Watch for sharp drops in high volatility.

SNDK | Guard against pullback under high IV
This week's implied range is 728–942, IV 111.81%, historical percentile 72.51%. Around the current price of 835, there's 820 Put concentration. Upside 800 Call holdings are relatively thin, so don't treat that as a breakout signal.
This week: Whether 820 holds is the short-term focus. If it breaks, watch the 700 Put concentration zone. With IV high, buyers also need to guard against time decay.

SKHY | Strong structure under test
This week's implied range is 113–141, IV 87.43%, historical percentile 75.90%. Current price 127.34 is above the Gamma flip point of 124.23, with positive net Gamma, leaning toward choppy trading short term. 133 is the Call wall.
This week: A break above 133 puts 141 in play. A break below 124.23 means reassess the trend. The stock has broken below all available moving averages since listing — don't judge support from option levels alone.

INTC | $55 is the key battle
This week's implied range is 50–62, IV 75.52%, historical percentile 72.91%. Current price 56.28 is above the Gamma flip point of 55.21, and positive Gamma leans toward choppy trading. 55 is the Put wall, 61 is the Call wall. Both buyers and sellers have positions in the long-term 80 Call, showing clear market disagreement.
This week: Holding 55 gives a chance at 61. A break below 55 means watch 50.

GOOGL | Relatively stable but still under pressure
This week's implied range is 272–297, IV 36.23%, historical percentile 82.47%. Current price 284.78 is above the Gamma flip point of 281.90, and positive Gamma helps suppress short-term swings. 290 is the Call wall, 275 is the Put wall.
This week: Holding 290 gives a chance at 297. After a break below 281.90, watch 275 support.

SPCX | Negative Gamma, guard against sharp drops
This week's implied range is 123–145, IV 64.38%, historical percentile 79%. Current price 134.27 is slightly below the Gamma flip point of 134.57, and negative Gamma could amplify one-way moves. 140 is the Call wall, 130 is the Put wall.
This week: Getting above 140 would help repair the trend. A break below 130 means watch 123 and lower.

TSLA | $350 is the bull/bear line
This week's implied range is 334–382, IV 53.61%, historical percentile 96.41%. Current price 358.22 is above the Gamma flip point of 356.65. 350 is where both Call and Put Gamma are concentrated, leaning toward choppy trading short term.
This week: Holding 350 and breaking 380 would make the bounce structure clearer. A break below 350 means watch 334.

4. Institutional Big Order Tracker

Buyers: Money is concentrated on guarding against market and semi downside. Bounce bets are still mostly medium-term spread strategies.

[Buyer] SPY | 11/20 740 Put
77.6K contracts | $52.4272M | current price at trade time $754.95
Money is guarding against: more short-term market downside, possibly institutional hedging.
Key level: 740 has already been broken. Watch whether it can be reclaimed; watch 725 below.

[Buyer] QQQ | 2027/06/17 680 Put
12.3K contracts | $49.3599M | current price at trade time $690.49
Money is guarding against: medium- to long-term tech pullback risk.
Key level: 680 is the strike. Price has already broken below it. Watch whether 660 can be reclaimed.

[Buyer] NVDA | 12/18 120 Put
100K contracts | $10.4M | current price at trade time $181.60
Money is guarding against: tail risk of an extreme drop in the AI leader.
Key level: Short term, watch 180 first. 120 is not a near-term support forecast.

[Buyer] DRAM | 12/18 25 Put
108K contracts | amount not provided | current price at trade time $39.28
Money is guarding against: a further memory sector pullback, or it may be portfolio protection.
Key level: 25 is a far downside protection strike, not a target price.

[Buyer] MRVL | 12/18 165 Put
5,743 contracts | $9.0176M | current price at trade time $163.57–165.39
Money is guarding against: continued weakness in the semi stock.
Key level: Bearish positioning is concentrated near 165. Watch whether the stock can stabilize again.

Sellers: Some money is willing to take downside risk to collect premium, but that doesn't mean the market has bottomed.

[Seller] DRAM | 12/18 35 Put
120K contracts | current price at trade time $39.28
Money is betting: willingness to take assignment risk near $35, or it's part of a combo.
Key level: 35 is an important risk watch level. Seller risk rises after a break below.

[Seller] QQQ | 12/18 720 Call
38K contracts | estimated premium $41.5M | current price at trade time about $685
Money is betting: the bounce may be limited, or it's a covered strategy.
Key level: First watch whether 660 breaks. 720 is a farther upside watch level.

5. This Week's Strategy Preview

Core this week: Control risk first, then look for confirmed trading opportunities.

1. Market strategy: SPY is still in negative Gamma, and QQQ hasn't reclaimed its 200-day line. Before CPI, don't rush to sell Puts just because the drop was big. First watch whether SPY reclaims 740 and whether QQQ holds 660.

2. Semi strategy: NVDA, SOXL, and memory stocks have very high volatility. They're worth watching closely, but that doesn't mean it's time to sell Puts right away. If prices keep breaking down, wait for a bottoming signal first. Don't take on too much downside risk just to collect premium.

3. Earnings strategy: For CRWV, AMAT, and CSCO, focus on guidance. IV may be high before earnings. Buyers need to guard against post-earnings IV drop; sellers need to guard against gaps. Use defined-max-loss spread strategies for scenario study.

4. Bounce strategy: If CPI eases rate pressure, VIX falls, and tech reclaims key levels, then reassess a limited-risk Bull Call Spread. If the index breaks down again on heavy volume, prioritize cutting positions and controlling risk.

One-line summary: The most important thing now isn't guessing the bottom. It's avoiding the mistake of treating high premium as a low-risk opportunity while the market may still see concentrated selling.

6. Risk Notes

1. Macro risk: CPI, rate-hike expectations, and AI regulation changes could cause another sharp drop.

2. Earnings risk: Even with revenue growth, AI infrastructure companies can be dragged by funding costs and project delays.

3. Options risk: High IV doesn't mean sellers are safe. Negative Gamma can amplify drops, and leveraged ETFs carry even higher risk.

4. Data limits: Implied ranges are not guaranteed support or resistance. Gamma and big-order data change with the market. Some trade directions and combo intents can't be fully confirmed.

This is for options learning and market observation only, not investment advice.