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EricYow
2021-08-03

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Goldman Sachs interprets "Delta": the impact is limited, and it has peaked in some areas

高盛一直认为该变体对疫苗接种率高的国家的经济增长前景影响很小。

Goldman Sachs interprets "Delta": the impact is limited, and it has peaked in some areas

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·2021-08-04
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Although the number of new confirmed cases reached an all-time peak due to the country's relaxation of restrictions in June, the effectiveness of the vaccine is still shown.How are consumers reacting?Regarding the Delta new crown variant, Goldman Sachs data shows that consumers are not interested in this extremely infectious variant.While it is predicted that consumers will voluntarily adjust their behavior to reduce the chance of potential infection and reduce spending on services due to the resurgence of the epidemic, the data suggests that the impact will be modest.Goldman Sachs' analysis of Google retail, transportation and workplace regional data in the UK shows that although people's economic activity has stagnated in most areas, this decline in economic activity is moderate in areas with slower growth in new confirmed cases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a5d1c225975e1562a345b32f9d468\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Even so, the weak stagnation of economic activity still led to the decline of PMI in some areas.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9242b3c5e15f72f0f99111e3b6de1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, Goldman Sachs also analyzed high-frequency data on credit and debit card spending in the UK, saying that household spending on low-risk categories such as staple food continues to recover, and high-risk spending such as restaurants does not seem to be greatly affected, although the two levels of recovery are not the same.Overall, Goldman Sachs said that although consumer spending in the UK has slowed down compared with other countries with lower new confirmed cases, the impact is not significant.There is a shortage of labor?In addition to consumption, there is another concern in the market, that is, the labor shortage caused by the isolation of infected people and close contacts.The latest report shows that around 20% of store workers had to quarantine in the week to July 18, echoing the lower-than-expected July PMI.How big is the macroeconomic impact of quarantine? Data from the UK show that only 30% of people have lost income, 50% of those in quarantine are still working (or working remotely), and most of these people are young people with low employment rates (or receiving financial assistance, taking leave and working part-time jobs). Therefore, the impact of rising absenteeism doesn't seem to be that great.It is important to note that the data do not suggest a significant difference in labor force participation rates between countries with higher case numbers and countries with lower cases, and the Delta variant cannot significantly change this difference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbf7b4d88c829b0f980b402a956aea9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Does the Delta Variant Increase Future Lockdown Risks?For the future, will the spread of the Delta variant cause the world to re-lock down the economy? Goldman's answer is-the overall risk is controllable.Overall, Goldman Sachs expects the UK and the euro zone to gradually ease the remaining economic blockade measures, but the euro zone will be delayed relative to the UK.As for the future of the epidemic with the Delta variant as the main source of infection, Goldman Sachs believes that it mainly depends on the following points:1. First of all, whether the infection has an impact on consumer behavior or labor availability currently has limited impact on economic costs;2. Secondly, whether the hospitalization rate and mortality rate will increase significantly, at present, the risk is much lower than at any time since February last year;3. Finally, whether future variants of the new crown are immune to existing vaccines, and if immunity occurs in the future, it will bring the most serious risks to the economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec0bb5dc607262cad67cfe035d59f6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs interprets \"Delta\": the impact is limited, and it has peaked in some areas</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs interprets \"Delta\": the impact is limited, and it has peaked in some areas\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-08-03 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Yu XudongAs the first international investment bank to pay attention to the economic impact of the Delta COVID-19 variant,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The variant has always been thought to have little impact on the economic growth prospects of countries with high vaccination rates.Nowadays, many real-world data also prove this point.In Goldman Sachs' latest report, Goldman Sachs predicted the European economy under the spread of the Delta new crown variant through stress tests, and obtained evidence that the Delta new crown variant peaked in the euro zone and the United Kingdom.According to Goldman Sachs, the biggest risk factor right now is that vaccination rates in the UK and euro zone fail to meet the higher herd immunity thresholds required for the Delta COVID variant (80%-85%, compared to 70% before Delta), which could bring the variant's R0 back above 1 later this year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2a52b8687b2a00eac49db053729183\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But Goldman Sachs also said that some restrictions on people's behavior (such as wearing masks) may still significantly reduce R0 and curb the rapid outbreak of the epidemic.Significant drop in hospitalizations?Goldman Sachs said that a data from Europe has caught their attention in recent weeks-relative to the number of new confirmed cases, the hospitalization rate in Europe has dropped significantly, and the high vaccination rate may explain this phenomenon.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987bc5dded5a506efb81ace1c34c3226\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Specifically, British data show that after the vaccination rate increased, the hospitalization rate of all age groups, especially the elderly, dropped significantly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3822c88190b215a71f73935d4addc28\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In Iceland, one of the countries with the highest vaccination rate, more than 85% of the population over the age of 16 has received a full dose of the vaccine, and the country's hospitalization rate has only risen to about 10% of its historical peak. Although the number of new confirmed cases reached an all-time peak due to the country's relaxation of restrictions in June, the effectiveness of the vaccine is still shown.How are consumers reacting?Regarding the Delta new crown variant, Goldman Sachs data shows that consumers are not interested in this extremely infectious variant.While it is predicted that consumers will voluntarily adjust their behavior to reduce the chance of potential infection and reduce spending on services due to the resurgence of the epidemic, the data suggests that the impact will be modest.Goldman Sachs' analysis of Google retail, transportation and workplace regional data in the UK shows that although people's economic activity has stagnated in most areas, this decline in economic activity is moderate in areas with slower growth in new confirmed cases.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1a5d1c225975e1562a345b32f9d468\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Even so, the weak stagnation of economic activity still led to the decline of PMI in some areas.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9242b3c5e15f72f0f99111e3b6de1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In addition, Goldman Sachs also analyzed high-frequency data on credit and debit card spending in the UK, saying that household spending on low-risk categories such as staple food continues to recover, and high-risk spending such as restaurants does not seem to be greatly affected, although the two levels of recovery are not the same.Overall, Goldman Sachs said that although consumer spending in the UK has slowed down compared with other countries with lower new confirmed cases, the impact is not significant.There is a shortage of labor?In addition to consumption, there is another concern in the market, that is, the labor shortage caused by the isolation of infected people and close contacts.The latest report shows that around 20% of store workers had to quarantine in the week to July 18, echoing the lower-than-expected July PMI.How big is the macroeconomic impact of quarantine? Data from the UK show that only 30% of people have lost income, 50% of those in quarantine are still working (or working remotely), and most of these people are young people with low employment rates (or receiving financial assistance, taking leave and working part-time jobs). Therefore, the impact of rising absenteeism doesn't seem to be that great.It is important to note that the data do not suggest a significant difference in labor force participation rates between countries with higher case numbers and countries with lower cases, and the Delta variant cannot significantly change this difference.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbf7b4d88c829b0f980b402a956aea9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Does the Delta Variant Increase Future Lockdown Risks?For the future, will the spread of the Delta variant cause the world to re-lock down the economy? Goldman's answer is-the overall risk is controllable.Overall, Goldman Sachs expects the UK and the euro zone to gradually ease the remaining economic blockade measures, but the euro zone will be delayed relative to the UK.As for the future of the epidemic with the Delta variant as the main source of infection, Goldman Sachs believes that it mainly depends on the following points:1. First of all, whether the infection has an impact on consumer behavior or labor availability currently has limited impact on economic costs;2. Secondly, whether the hospitalization rate and mortality rate will increase significantly, at present, the risk is much lower than at any time since February last year;3. Finally, whether future variants of the new crown are immune to existing vaccines, and if immunity occurs in the future, it will bring the most serious risks to the economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec0bb5dc607262cad67cfe035d59f6b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637044\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e9c02eefd75f2f2ea1cc57e23434c04","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637044","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103757361","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n作为最早关注德尔塔新冠变体对经济影响的国际投行，高盛一直认为该变体对疫苗接种率高的国家的经济增长前景影响很小。\n而如今，许多真实世界的数据也证明了这一点。\n在高盛的最新报告中，高盛通过压力测试对德尔塔新冠变体蔓延下的欧洲经济作出了预测，并得到了德尔塔新冠变体在欧元区和英国达到顶峰的证据。\n根据高盛的说法，目前的最大风险因素是英国和欧元区的疫苗接种率无法达到德尔塔新冠变体所需的更高的群体免疫阈值（80%-85%，德尔塔出现前为70%），这可能让该变体的R0在今年晚些时候回到1以上。\n\n但高盛同时表示，对人们行为的一些限制（比如戴口罩）仍然可能会显著降低R0并抑制疫情的快速爆发。\n住院率显著下降？\n高盛表示，最近几周欧洲的一个数据引起了他们的注意——相对于新增确诊人数，欧洲的住院率显著降低，而疫苗的高接种率或能解释这一现象。\n\n具体来看，英国数据显示，疫苗接种率抬升后，各个年龄组尤其是老年人的住院率显著下降。\n\n在疫苗接种率最高的国家之一冰岛，超过85%的16岁以上人口接受了疫苗的全剂量注射，该国的住院率也仅上升到历史峰值的10%左右。尽管由于该国在6月放松限制导致新增确诊达到历史峰值，但依然显示出了疫苗的有效性。\n消费者如何反应？\n对于德尔塔新冠变体，高盛数据显示，消费者对这种传染率极高的变体并不感冒。\n虽然人们都预测，消费者会因为疫情的卷土重来自愿调整自己的行为以减少潜在感染机会，并减少服务业支出，但数据表明影响不大。\n高盛通过英国的Google零售、交通和工作场所区域数据分析表明，尽管在大部分地区人们的经济活动有所停滞，但在新增确诊增长较缓慢的地区，这种经济活动的降低是温和的。\n\n即便如此，经济活动的微弱停滞，依然导致了部分地区PMI的下降。\n\n此外，高盛还分析了英国信用卡和借记卡支出高频数据，表示家庭在主食等低风险类目上的支出持续复苏，且餐馆等高风险支出似乎也并未受到太大影响，尽管这两者的复苏水平不尽相同。\n总体而言，高盛表示虽然英国相对其他新增确诊较低的国家，消费者在支出上有所减缓，但影响不大。\n劳动力有所短缺？\n除了消费，市场还有一个担心，那便是感染者和密接者隔离所带来的劳动力短缺。\n最新报告显示，在截至7月18日的一周内，大约20%的商店工人不得不被隔离，这与低于预期的7月PMI相呼应。\n隔离对宏观经济的影响有多大？英国的数据表明，只有30%的人收入有损失，隔离人士中有50%的人仍在工作（或远程工作），并且这部分人群大多数都是就业率较低的年轻群体（或得到财政救助、正在休假及打短工）。因此，缺勤率上升带来的影响似乎并没有那么大。\n值得注意的是，数据并未表明病例数较高的国家和较低的国家在劳动力参与率上有显著差异，并且德尔塔变种也不能显著改变这种差异。\n\n德尔塔变体是否增加了未来封锁风险？\n对于未来，德尔塔变体的蔓延是否会让全球重新封锁经济？高盛的答案是——总体风险可控。\n在总体上，高盛预计英国和欧元区将逐步放松剩下的经济封锁措施，但欧元区相对英国会有所延迟。\n至于以德尔塔变体为主要传染源的疫情的未来，高盛认为主要取决于以下几点：\n1、首先，感染是否对消费者行为或劳动力的可用性产生影响，目前来看对经济成本的影响有限；\n2、其次，住院率和死亡率是否会显著上升，目前来看风险远低于去年2月至今的任何时候；\n3、最后，未来的新冠变种是否对现有疫苗免疫，若未来出现免疫，那将给经济带来最严重的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2548,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5417384,"commentId":"5417384","gmtCreate":1628026002778,"gmtModify":1663231886243,"authorId":3569906826803008,"author":{"id":3569906826803008,"idStr":"3569906826803008","authorId":3569906826803008,"name":"YESYESYES","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b229077ea82949e71c489887199b9f98","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807923666,"objectIdStr":"807923666","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Great","text":"Great","html":"Great","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}