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2021-08-19

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The Federal Reserve's voting committee next year: QE will end in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike in the fourth quarter will be reasonable

圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他倾向于美联储在2022年一季度完成减码QE的任务，2022年第四季度是开始加息的最“合乎逻辑的地方”。美国经济显然已经适应流行病疫情，德尔塔变异毒株的扩散可能并不会阻碍经济的适应能力

The Federal Reserve's voting committee next year: QE will end in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike in the fourth quarter will be reasonable

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He believes this will lead to turmoil in financial markets. Earlier this week, several former Fed economists supported raising the inflation target to a higher level.</p><p>Bullard's view on inflation is more similar to market concerns about inflation and is inconsistent with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's repeated reiteration that \"the continued rise in inflation in recent months is a temporary phenomenon.\"</p><p>For the labor market, Bullard expects to see the job market return to the level before the COVID-19 pandemic by March 2022. In fact, he doesn't see the need for the strength of the labor market to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Overall, Bullard said, the United States has made a lot of progress towards achieving the Federal Reserve (maintaining price stability and achieving full employment).<b>The U.S. economy has clearly adapted to the epidemic, and the spread of the Delta variant strain may not hinder the economy's ability to adapt.</b></p><p>Bullard is the representative of the Federal Reserve's \"dove-to-hawk\" on monetary policy issues. His stance was once dovish, but his current expectations for reducing QE and rate hike are significantly faster than the mainstream expectations of Wall Street. This week, the Wall Street Journal analyzed that the Federal Reserve has almost reached an agreement on reducing QE: it will begin reducing QE within about three months, and some officials are pushing for the end of asset purchases in the middle of next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Fed meeting released on the same day on Wednesday showed that at the July FOMC meeting, Fed officials explicitly discussed Taper for the first time since the epidemic, and the Fed hinted at action within this year. Most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of bond purchases this year. 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The tapering started in March, and it has affected everything, the market has reacted the same way you think Taper will react.\"</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's voting committee next year: QE will end in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike in the fourth quarter will be reasonable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's voting committee next year: QE will end in the first quarter of next year, and rate hike in the fourth quarter will be reasonable\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, next year's Federal Reserve FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said,<b>He favors the Fed to complete the task of reducing QE in the first quarter of 2022.</b>Thus allowing the Fed to continue to push forward and open the door to rate hike.<b>The fourth quarter of 2022 is by far the most \"logical place\" to start a rate hike.</b></p><p>Bullard said that when adjusting monetary policy, the Fed needs to consider the massive \"inflationary shock\" the U.S. economy has experienced.<b>Inflation in 2022 is likely to be higher than \"we are willing to admit\" levels, and U.S. inflation is expected to be above 2.5% in 2022, with the risk of further growth, which will force the Fed into anti-inflation mode.</b>Currently, companies have pricing power, and they are confident that they will pass on the increase in input prices to consumers.</p><p>Bullard said he opposes raising the Fed's inflation target to 3% from the current 2%. He believes this will lead to turmoil in financial markets. Earlier this week, several former Fed economists supported raising the inflation target to a higher level.</p><p>Bullard's view on inflation is more similar to market concerns about inflation and is inconsistent with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's repeated reiteration that \"the continued rise in inflation in recent months is a temporary phenomenon.\"</p><p>For the labor market, Bullard expects to see the job market return to the level before the COVID-19 pandemic by March 2022. In fact, he doesn't see the need for the strength of the labor market to return to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>Overall, Bullard said, the United States has made a lot of progress towards achieving the Federal Reserve (maintaining price stability and achieving full employment).<b>The U.S. economy has clearly adapted to the epidemic, and the spread of the Delta variant strain may not hinder the economy's ability to adapt.</b></p><p>Bullard is the representative of the Federal Reserve's \"dove-to-hawk\" on monetary policy issues. His stance was once dovish, but his current expectations for reducing QE and rate hike are significantly faster than the mainstream expectations of Wall Street. This week, the Wall Street Journal analyzed that the Federal Reserve has almost reached an agreement on reducing QE: it will begin reducing QE within about three months, and some officials are pushing for the end of asset purchases in the middle of next year.</p><p>The minutes of the Fed meeting released on the same day on Wednesday showed that at the July FOMC meeting, Fed officials explicitly discussed Taper for the first time since the epidemic, and the Fed hinted at action within this year. Most Fed policymakers believe that if the economic recovery is in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of bond purchases this year. Some people believe that Taper may start in the next few months, while others believe that it should start early next year; Many people pointed out that when it is appropriate to slow down bond purchases, it is important for the FOMC to clearly confirm that there is no correlation between the Taper timing and the rate hike timing.</p><p>In fact, although the Federal Reserve has not officially announced the reduction of QE, investors have begun to make preparations. The sell-off of U.S. small-cap stocks and overseas stock markets is one of the market changes, but the U.S. stock market remains strong. According to CNBC, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said: \"(In fact) we have been in the tapering phase for several months, and the reaction in the market has been very obvious. The tapering started in March, and it has affected everything, the market has reacted the same way you think Taper will react.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638289\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638289","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160535027","content_text":"周三，明年美联储FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他倾向于美联储在2022年一季度完成减码QE的任务，从而允许美联储继续向前推进，打开加息的大门。到目前为止，2022年第四季度是开始加息的最“合乎逻辑的地方”。\n布拉德表示，在调整货币政策时，美联储需要考虑美国经济所经历的巨大“通胀冲击”。2022年的通胀率可能会高于“我们愿意承认的”水平，预计美国通胀将在2022年位于2.5%上方，并且有进一步增长的风险，这将迫使美联储进入抗通胀模式。目前，企业拥有定价权，他们有信心将投入品价格的上涨转嫁给消费者。\n布拉德表示，他反对将美联储的通胀目标从目前的2%上调至3%。他认为这将导致金融市场动荡。本周早些时候，几位前美联储经济学家支持将通胀目标提高到更高的水平。\n布拉德对通胀的观点更类似于市场上对通胀的担忧，与美联储主席鲍威尔不断重申的“最近几个月来通胀持续走高是暂时的现象”并不一致。\n对于劳动力市场，布拉德预计到2022年3月，将看到就业市场恢复至新冠疫情爆发之前的水平。事实上，他认为无需让劳动力市场的强劲程度恢复至疫情之前的水平。\n总体来看，布拉德说，美国已经朝着实现美联储（维持物价稳定和实现充分就业）取得大量进展。美国经济显然已经适应流行病疫情，德尔塔变异毒株的扩散可能并不会阻碍经济的适应能力。\n布拉德是美联储货币政策问题上“鸽转鹰”的代表。他一度立场偏鸽派，但当前对缩减QE和加息的预期，明显快于华尔街的主流预期。本周华尔街日报分析称，美联储内部就缩减QE近乎达成一致：将在大约三个月内开始缩减QE，一些官员推动在明年年中结束资产购买。\n周三同日公布的美联储会议纪要显示，7月FOMC会议上，美联储官员们疫情以来首次明确讨论Taper，美联储暗示今年内行动。多数美联储决策者认为，若经济复苏符合预期，可能适合今年开始放慢购债步伐，有人认为未来几个月可能开始Taper，还有人认为应明年初开始；多人指出，当适合减慢购债时，FOMC清晰确认Taper时点和加息时点之间毫无关联很重要。\n事实上，虽然美联储尚未正式宣布缩减QE，但投资者已经开始做了准备。美股小盘股和海外股市的抛售是市场变化之一，不过美股大盘仍保持强劲。据CNBC，Leuthold集团的首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen说：“（事实上）我们已经进入缩减购债阶段有几个月了，在市场上反应非常明显，缩减购债从3月份开始，它影响了一切，市场已有的反应和你认为Taper会产生的反应一样。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}