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万象入星辰
2021-08-19

101

Fed Minutes Preview: Mouth Or Harder, But Announces taper Should Be At Year End

核心与会者和鸽派参与者将主导政策的真正落地。

Fed Minutes Preview: Mouth Or Harder, But Announces taper Should Be At Year End

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At present, there is only one week left until the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole. It is expected that Powell will take the opportunity of this meeting to announce the reduction of bond purchases, so the market needs to pay close attention to whether the minutes of the meeting announced today can provide relevant clues. Currently, the Fed's monthly bond purchase quota is $120 billion.Recently, Nomura Securities expressed its views on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee interest rate meeting (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve in August in a research report.The report pointed out that Nomura Securities expects the Federal Open Market Committee to announce a reduction in bond purchases (taper) announcement in the fourth quarter, most likely in December this year, and the possibility of announcing taper in November is also increasing.Regarding when to implement it, Nomura believes that the Federal Reserve will gradually reduce the purchase of bonds in January and last for 11 months; Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) reduced purchases will last for 6 months.Nomura also said the minutes of the July FOMC meeting will likely include more important discussions among FOMC participants about the technical details of taper, including when it will begin, the pace of tapering, and whether Treasury Bond and MBS are treated equally with fewer purchases.Considering the June and July FOMC meetings were tougher than expected, Nomura sees the possibility of a stronger consensus in the minutes of the July meeting and will taper gradually shortly afterwards.Notably, while recent Fed remarks since the July meeting have continued the hawkish theme of calling for an early taper, Nomura sees little sign at the core level that a third-quarter taper announcement might be possible. Moreover, it is likely that inflation and COVID developments will also make the minutes platitudinous (and hinder taper).What will be the timing, size, and how of taper?Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed adjusted its language regarding asset purchases to acknowledge that \"the economy has made progress towards its goals. In addition, the FOMC will continue to evaluate progress at future meetings. Emphasizing the importance of future meetings suggests that it will not end exploring until at least November.During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that the committee considered some considerations at its July meeting about how to adjust asset purchases when economic conditions need to change, including the pace and composition of purchases.Since the July meeting, it has become clear that Fed hawks should start to gain the upper hand, with some hawkish FOMC participants calling for a faster taper timeline, including Bullard, Waller, Rosengren and Kaplan. These participants tended to announce the reduction at the September FOMC meeting, but the start time and duration of the reduction varied.Brad and Waller, in particular, both called for a relatively rapid taper process in about 5-6 months, while Rosengren and Kaplan were more cautious, calling for 8-10 months.Aside from the hawks, however, the core members of the FOMC, including Clarida and Brainard, are more patient.During an Aug. 4 speech, Clara repeated some of the wording from the July FOMC statement while acknowledging that he might support the announcement of taper later this year.Additionally, Governor Brainard stressed the need to look at the September Jobs Report (scheduled for October 8) before making any final FOMC decision, while also noting that downside risks to the economy are now more pronounced since the July FOMC meeting due to the development of the COVID pandemic.In addition, Bostic stressed that given that the Fed has promised to send out taper notices in advance, this may pose communication challenges. That said, the evolution from \"future conference\" to \"later this year\" wording may reflect a subtle hawkish shift.In addition to the core personnel, dovish players, including Daly, Evans and Kashkari, have said taper will be announced later this year if the economy goes as expected. This suggests that the July FOMC minutes may embody a relatively strong consensus that an announcement of taper later this year may be appropriate, but there are different views on the exact timing.Hawkish voices since the July FOMC meeting suggest that there may be a group of attendees in the discussion of the minutes supporting a sooner-than-expected taper or announcing a taper. This may manifest itself in terms of when tapering begins and how quickly it progresses. Of course, it also matters how many people say this.In addition to when the taper is most likely to be announced, it is important to monitor the size of the taper perceived by each attendee, which means the speed and progress of the taper. Many participants agreed that it is more appropriate to taper gradually over a period of about 10-12 months, while some participants suggested supporting the Fed to taper faster, which also increases the flexibility of the Fed to time taper.Finally, on how to reduce purchases of U.S. Treasury Bond and MBS, Nomura notes that although Powell seems to rule out the possibility of starting to reduce purchases of MBS first, he does not rule out the possibility of tapering MBS more quickly.What is the impact of macroeconomics on the FOMC meeting?Nomura believes that while non-farm payrolls grew strongly in July, it did not accelerate significantly, which may ease the pressure on the Fed to announce taper as soon as possible. In addition, the unexpected fall in core CPI inflation in July, the rampage of the Delta variant, and the deterioration of retail sales data are also thwarting the Fed from announcing taper as soon as possible.At a press conference in July, Powell said the FOMC still needs to monitor eating out, travel, and the reopening of schools, although back-to-back waves of COVID tend to have less of an economic impact. Since the meeting, Nomura has argued that these concerns have become reality rather than risk.What are the risks of this FOMC meeting?Nomura believes that given that both June and July FOMC meetings were tougher than expected, the agency believes the July FOMC minutes could show a stronger-than-expected consensus to start taper as early as possible.In this case, the strong consensus could lead to Powell's key speech on taper at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference.Even so, economic data, comments from core attendees, and the need for \"advance notice\" all indicate that the barrier to gradual taper since September is still relatively high.Therefore, Nomura thinks we believe that the July FOMC minutes will reveal some disagreement and consensus from people with tough voices, but core attendees and dovish participants will dominate the real landing of policy.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Minutes Preview: Mouth Or Harder, But Announces taper Should Be At Year End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Minutes Preview: Mouth Or Harder, But Announces taper Should Be At Year End\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-08-18 20:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Yu XudongThe Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting at 02:00 a.m. Beijing time (02:00 EST) on Thursday. At present, there is only one week left until the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole. It is expected that Powell will take the opportunity of this meeting to announce the reduction of bond purchases, so the market needs to pay close attention to whether the minutes of the meeting announced today can provide relevant clues. Currently, the Fed's monthly bond purchase quota is $120 billion.Recently, Nomura Securities expressed its views on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee interest rate meeting (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve in August in a research report.The report pointed out that Nomura Securities expects the Federal Open Market Committee to announce a reduction in bond purchases (taper) announcement in the fourth quarter, most likely in December this year, and the possibility of announcing taper in November is also increasing.Regarding when to implement it, Nomura believes that the Federal Reserve will gradually reduce the purchase of bonds in January and last for 11 months; Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) reduced purchases will last for 6 months.Nomura also said the minutes of the July FOMC meeting will likely include more important discussions among FOMC participants about the technical details of taper, including when it will begin, the pace of tapering, and whether Treasury Bond and MBS are treated equally with fewer purchases.Considering the June and July FOMC meetings were tougher than expected, Nomura sees the possibility of a stronger consensus in the minutes of the July meeting and will taper gradually shortly afterwards.Notably, while recent Fed remarks since the July meeting have continued the hawkish theme of calling for an early taper, Nomura sees little sign at the core level that a third-quarter taper announcement might be possible. Moreover, it is likely that inflation and COVID developments will also make the minutes platitudinous (and hinder taper).What will be the timing, size, and how of taper?Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed adjusted its language regarding asset purchases to acknowledge that \"the economy has made progress towards its goals. In addition, the FOMC will continue to evaluate progress at future meetings. Emphasizing the importance of future meetings suggests that it will not end exploring until at least November.During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that the committee considered some considerations at its July meeting about how to adjust asset purchases when economic conditions need to change, including the pace and composition of purchases.Since the July meeting, it has become clear that Fed hawks should start to gain the upper hand, with some hawkish FOMC participants calling for a faster taper timeline, including Bullard, Waller, Rosengren and Kaplan. These participants tended to announce the reduction at the September FOMC meeting, but the start time and duration of the reduction varied.Brad and Waller, in particular, both called for a relatively rapid taper process in about 5-6 months, while Rosengren and Kaplan were more cautious, calling for 8-10 months.Aside from the hawks, however, the core members of the FOMC, including Clarida and Brainard, are more patient.During an Aug. 4 speech, Clara repeated some of the wording from the July FOMC statement while acknowledging that he might support the announcement of taper later this year.Additionally, Governor Brainard stressed the need to look at the September Jobs Report (scheduled for October 8) before making any final FOMC decision, while also noting that downside risks to the economy are now more pronounced since the July FOMC meeting due to the development of the COVID pandemic.In addition, Bostic stressed that given that the Fed has promised to send out taper notices in advance, this may pose communication challenges. That said, the evolution from \"future conference\" to \"later this year\" wording may reflect a subtle hawkish shift.In addition to the core personnel, dovish players, including Daly, Evans and Kashkari, have said taper will be announced later this year if the economy goes as expected. This suggests that the July FOMC minutes may embody a relatively strong consensus that an announcement of taper later this year may be appropriate, but there are different views on the exact timing.Hawkish voices since the July FOMC meeting suggest that there may be a group of attendees in the discussion of the minutes supporting a sooner-than-expected taper or announcing a taper. This may manifest itself in terms of when tapering begins and how quickly it progresses. Of course, it also matters how many people say this.In addition to when the taper is most likely to be announced, it is important to monitor the size of the taper perceived by each attendee, which means the speed and progress of the taper. Many participants agreed that it is more appropriate to taper gradually over a period of about 10-12 months, while some participants suggested supporting the Fed to taper faster, which also increases the flexibility of the Fed to time taper.Finally, on how to reduce purchases of U.S. Treasury Bond and MBS, Nomura notes that although Powell seems to rule out the possibility of starting to reduce purchases of MBS first, he does not rule out the possibility of tapering MBS more quickly.What is the impact of macroeconomics on the FOMC meeting?Nomura believes that while non-farm payrolls grew strongly in July, it did not accelerate significantly, which may ease the pressure on the Fed to announce taper as soon as possible. In addition, the unexpected fall in core CPI inflation in July, the rampage of the Delta variant, and the deterioration of retail sales data are also thwarting the Fed from announcing taper as soon as possible.At a press conference in July, Powell said the FOMC still needs to monitor eating out, travel, and the reopening of schools, although back-to-back waves of COVID tend to have less of an economic impact. Since the meeting, Nomura has argued that these concerns have become reality rather than risk.What are the risks of this FOMC meeting?Nomura believes that given that both June and July FOMC meetings were tougher than expected, the agency believes the July FOMC minutes could show a stronger-than-expected consensus to start taper as early as possible.In this case, the strong consensus could lead to Powell's key speech on taper at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference.Even so, economic data, comments from core attendees, and the need for \"advance notice\" all indicate that the barrier to gradual taper since September is still relatively high.Therefore, Nomura thinks we believe that the July FOMC minutes will reveal some disagreement and consensus from people with tough voices, but core attendees and dovish participants will dominate the real landing of policy.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638263\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638263","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1124478475","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00（美国东部时间02:00）公布最近一次货币政策会议的纪要。当下距离杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会只剩一周时间，外界预期鲍威尔将借该次会议的机会宣布削减购债规模，所以市场需密切关注今天公布的会议纪要能否提供相关线索。目前，美联储每月购债额度为1200亿美元。\n近日，野村证券在一份研报中表达了对即将到来的美联储8月联邦公开市场委员会议息会议（FOMC）的看法。\n报告指出，野村证券预计联邦公开市场委员会将在第四季度宣布减少购债（taper）公告，其中最有可能是在今年12月宣布taper，而11月宣布taper的可能性也在加大。\n对于何时执行，野村认为美联储将在1月份开始逐渐减少购债的购买，并持续11个月；抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）减少购买将持续6个月。\n野村证券还表示，7月的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要可能会包括联邦公开市场委员会参与者关于taper的技术细节的更重要的讨论，包括何时开始、缩减的速度，以及是否平等对待国债和MBS的购买较少。\n考虑到6月和7月FOMC会议比预期更为强硬，野村证券认为7月的会议纪要中有可能达成更强烈的共识，并在不久后将逐渐taper。\n值得注意的是，尽管自7月会议以来，美联储最近的讲话延续了鹰派呼吁提前taper的主题，但野村证券从核心层面上看不到有什么迹象表明第三季度可能会宣布taper。此外，通胀和新冠疫情的发展很可能也会使会议纪要老生常谈（并阻碍taper）。\ntaper的时间、规模、方式将如何？\n在7月的FOMC会议后，美联储调整了有关资产购买的措辞，以承认“经济在达到目标方面取得了进展。此外，联邦公开市场委员会将继续评估未来会议的进展。强调未来会议很重要，这表明至少要到11月才会结束探讨。\n在记者招待会上，美联储主席鲍威尔承认，委员会在7月份的会议上审议了一些关于在经济条件需要改变时如何调整资产购买的考虑，包括购买的速度和构成。\n自7月会议以来，美联储鹰派显然应该开始占上风，一些鹰派的联邦公开市场委员会参与者呼吁加快taper时间表，包括布拉德、沃勒、罗森格伦和卡普兰。这些参与者倾向于在9月的FOMC会议上宣布减量，但减量的开始时间和持续时间有所不同。\n尤其是布拉德和沃勒，他们都呼吁在大约5-6个月内实现相对快速的taper过程，而罗森格伦和卡普兰则更为谨慎，要求8-10个月。\n然而，除了鹰派之外，联邦公开市场委员会的核心成员，包括克拉里达和布雷纳德，都更加有耐心。\n在8月4日的一次演讲中，克拉里达重复了7月FOMC声明中的一些措辞，同时承认他可能会支持宣布在今年晚些时候taper。\n此外，布雷纳德州长强调，在做出任何FOMC的最终决定之前，需要先看看9月就业报告（定于10月8日发布），他同时还指出，自7月FOMC会议以来，由于新冠疫情的发展，经济下行风险现在更为明显。\n此外，博斯蒂克强调，鉴于美联储已承诺会提前发出taper通知，但这可能会带来沟通方面的挑战。这就是说，从“未来会议”到“今年晚些时候”措辞的演变可能反映出一种微妙的鹰派转变。\n除核心人员之外，鸽派参与者，包括达利、埃文斯和卡什卡里都表示，如果经济进展如预期，今年晚些时候将宣布taper。这表明，7月FOMC会议纪要可能会体现一个相对强烈的共识，即今年晚些时候宣布taper可能是适当的，但对确切的时间有不同的看法。\n自7月FOMC会议以来的鹰派声音表明，在会议记录的讨论中，可能会有一组与会者支持比预期更快的taper或宣布taper。这可能会在减量何时开始以及进展速度方面表现出来。当然，这样说的人有多少也很重要。\n除了最有可能在什么时候宣布taper外，监控每个与会者认为的taper规模也很重要，这意味着taper的速度和进度。许多与会者都认为在10-12个月左右的时间内逐渐taper比较合适，而一些与会者建议支持美联储更快地taper，这也增加美联储把握taper时机的灵活性。\n最后，对于如何减少购买美国国债与MBS，野村证券注意到，尽管鲍威尔似乎排除了先开始减少购买MBS的可能性，但他并不排除可能更快地缩减MBS。\n宏观经济对FOMC会议有何影响？\n野村证券认为，虽然7月非农就业人数增长强劲，但并没有显著加速，这可能减轻了美联储宣布尽快taper的压力。此外，7月核心CPI通胀意外下跌、德尔塔变体的肆虐、零售数据的恶化也在阻挠美联储尽快宣布taper。\n在7月的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，尽管连续一波的新冠疫情往往对经济的影响较小，但联邦公开市场委员会仍需要监控外出就餐、旅行以及学校重新开放的问题。自会议以来，野村证券认为，这些担忧已成为现实而非风险。\n本次FOMC会议有何风险？\n野村证券认为，鉴于6月和7月的FOMC会议都比预期的更为强硬，该机构认为，7月的FOMC会议纪要可能会显示出比预期更强烈的共识，即尽早开始taper。\n在这种情况下，强烈的共识可能导致鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议发表有关taper的关键演讲。\n即便如此，经济数据、核心与会者的评论、“提前通知”的必要性，都表明自9月份逐渐taper的障碍依然相对较高。\n因此，野村证券认为我们认为，7月的FOMC会议记录将揭示一些来自声音强硬的人士的不同意见和共识，但核心与会者和鸽派参与者将主导政策的真正落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}