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沃伦邹菲特
2021-08-23

Top Ten Brokerage Strategies: The market's risk release is coming to an end, gradually laying out on the left side

华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线

Top Ten Brokerage Strategies: The market's risk release is coming to an end, gradually laying out on the left side

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阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛
·2021-08-23
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":832731894,"tweetId":"832731894","gmtCreate":1629677710318,"gmtModify":1676530091669,"author":{"id":3565347485988843,"idStr":"3565347485988843","authorId":3565347485988843,"authorIdStr":"3565347485988843","name":"沃伦邹菲特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450aba14f5c3dc0f3de122a54e229dd0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>1</body></html>","text":"1","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832731894","repostId":2161740649,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161740649","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629676668,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2161740649?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 07:57","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Top Ten Brokerage Strategies: The market's risk release is coming to an end, gradually laying out on the left side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161740649","media":"格隆汇","summary":"华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线","content":"Last week, the A-share market showed a volatile decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.69%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 4.55%. The cumulative net outflow of northbound funds was 10.491 billion yuan. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan on the 23rd consecutive trading day. Hong Kong stocks were affected by the continued sharp decline of heavyweights. The Hang Seng Index fell 5.84% on a weekly basis, and the State Index fell 6.78% on a weekly basis. However, the Hang Seng Technology Index continued to fall 10.54% on a weekly basis, hitting another record low.How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the summary of the latest top ten brokerage strategies.1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The market's risk release is coming to an end and gradually deploying on the leftThe national policy of common prosperity and the corresponding policy packages in the future will not harm the market-oriented business logic. Under the policy tone of preventing financial risks, the impact of local credit risks is also controllable. Investors still need to wait for more signals to correct policy misunderstandings. It is expected that the third quarter will be the low point of the domestic macro-economy during the year, and the market liquidity will still maintain a tight balance. Differences in policies and economic prospects will cause disordered investor behavior, and the release of market risks is coming to an end. Adhere to a balanced allocation and gradually lay out on the left. In terms of specific configuration, the growth manufacturing sector has shifted from a high-level track to a relatively low-level track, such as the military industry catalyzed by the performance of the interim report and 5G, communication equipment, and auto parts whose fundamentals have ushered in an inflection point; Recommend automobiles, apparel, CXO, vaccines and medical services in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors; The financial sector recommends some retail banks and securities firms with card wealth management with valuation cost performance or medium-and long-term growth logic.2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: Styles are just beginning instead of switchingLooking pragmatically at future investment opportunities, technological growth is still the main investment opportunity in the next stage, and the style has just begun rather than switching. Mid-cap blue chips and technology growth have become the core words of investment. Under the current economic pressure, steady fiscal growth and severe energy conservation situation, new energy infrastructure is the preferred direction for investment at present. Six major tracks including photovoltaics, BIPV, wind power, UHV, charging piles, and pumped storage are recommended.3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>: There is no need to be overly pessimistic when the Shanghai Composite Index is around 3300-3400 pointsThe fundamental reason for the increase in short-term market volatility is that the market is still waiting for many uncertainties to come to fruition. In the current stock market, the market lacks a clear main line under high turnover. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points. On the one hand, the performance of listed companies is still supported. On the other hand, after the valuation switch, driven by high performance growth, the current A-share valuation has a certain margin of safety. Although the structural valuation differentiation is still relatively obvious, there are still sectors with certain cost performance in the market, such as the midstream manufacturing industry.4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: This bull market is not over yet, and the market will still be full of opportunities in the next six monthsA-shares have fallen significantly in the last week, with the CSI 300 falling 3.6% and the ChiNext Index falling 4.6%. Since July 1, the overall market has been weak, and investors have doubts about the market outlook. We believe that combined with the macro background and micro-enterprise profits, this year is similar to 2010, and the second half is more exciting. Drawing lessons from the annual market fluctuations and bull market cycles in history, the market is still full of opportunities in the next six months.Core conclusions: (1) Statistics show that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 market is more than 15% at least once a year. This year's macro background is similar to that of 2010, and the second half of the stock market is more exciting. (2) The ROE of listed companies is expected to continue to rise to 22Q1, the market valuation level and sentiment indicators are acceptable, and the current bull market is not over yet. (3) The market has moved from solo to public, taking into account<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing and traditional midstream and downstream manufacturing, and pay attention to depression industries, such as securities firms.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: High prosperity growth such as Ning combination is the main line of allocationUnder the concern of uncertain policy trends at home and abroad, the market risk appetite has been lowered recently. However, the current overall valuation of A-shares is reasonable, and the risk of emotional and chip concentration has been released in the short-term adjustment. With the uncertain factors landing, the market is expected to gradually get out of the bottoming period. The core factor that determines the market style in the future is still the relative advantage of profitability.Specifically, the valuation of the consumer sector has continued to decline recently, and more certain signals still need to wait for the fundamental turning point before the market regains consensus; Under the framework of policy \"cross-cyclical adjustment\", the current policy is more \"supporting but not lifting\", and the boost to traditional infrastructure (pro-cyclical) may be slower. Judging from the forecast of the interim report, the prosperity of the growth track is difficult to falsify, and the market outlook is still the key allocation direction. Specific to industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to: \"new energy industry chain (electrical equipment, nonferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), new infrastructure (intelligent transportation, etc.), military industry\", etc.; Theme investment focus: \"Carbon neutrality (green industry) connotation expansion, Hongmeng main line\".6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>: Countermeasures under the reappearance of microstructure adjustmentIncreased policy uncertainty has caused A-shares, especially sectors greatly affected by policies, to experience a double kill in performance and valuation. The current microstructure of the A-share market is still not healthy. Recently, \"promoting common prosperity in high-quality development\" and \"specialization\" The \"special and new\" policy environment will further strengthen the main line of \"small-cap growth\". It is recommended to pay attention to the technology manufacturing industry whose mid-term performance (forecast) is restored, supplemented by some infrastructure benefit varieties. It is recommended to continue to allocate \"market value sinking\"-(1) \"policy + technology + supply and demand gap\" multi-wheel drive new energy vehicles (lithium/diaphragm)/photovoltaics; (2) \"Fewer people\" + the growth and diffusion of industrial policy inclination (military industry); (3) Manufacturing industry (construction machinery/cement) with easing cost suppression + marginal change in demand.7.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>: Waiting for risk appetite to return to the main line of steady growth can still be expectedEmotional disturbances The market volatility has increased recently, but there is still no downward pressure from the trend. The overall pattern of the structural market has not changed, the growth style is expected to continue to dominate, and the cyclical style is also worthy of attention. After market digestion, risk appetite is expected to return to stability. At present, the macro environment, monetary environment and market environment at home and abroad are relatively stable, so the market risk appetite also has the basic conditions for overall stability in the short term. In terms of specific structure, Baima's leading mid-term report fell short of expectations, market supervision became stricter, and the consumption recovery process repeatedly fell short of expectations, resulting in weak consumption style preferences. However, the growth style has both liquidity, performance, and catalyst support, and its risk appetite is still relatively dominant. Focus on two main lines with profit advantages. Main line 1: Growth style, continue to pay attention to the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chains whose prosperity is at an absolutely high level, and at the same time pay attention to structural opportunities that benefit from growth diffusion; Main line 2: cyclical style, focusing on structural opportunities with high prosperity, including the chemical industry with high prosperity, especially the phosphorus chemical sector, and the general automatic equipment sector that benefits from the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601696\">BOC Securities</a>: It is recommended to grasp the excess returns of low valuation pro-cyclical sectorsRecently, the market has undergone a certain degree of adjustment, and the resonance of internal and external factors has led to a downward trend in market risk appetite. From the perspective of market structure, the two major directions of early market capital grouping have faced certain fluctuations in the near future. The stable profit model of traditional consumer leaders may face certain potential impacts. On the other hand, for track stocks represented by new energy and photovoltaics, although the industry prosperity continues to be high, the current valuation is high, and the hesitation to add new funds leads to high volatility in the sector. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to grasp the excess returns of low-valuation pro-cyclical sectors. Secondly, we can pay attention to the valuation switching opportunities of the leading industries represented by new energy and semiconductors in the fourth quarter. Looking forward, under the differentiation of industry performance, the characteristics of financial management and the growth certainty of leading securities firms are higher, and they are expected to enjoy valuation premiums.9. Yuekai Securities: The capital market has broad potential for incremental fundsIncreased expectations of Fed policy tightening may lead to short-term adjustment pressure on U.S. stocks, but the impact on A-shares will be limited. In addition, fund shares are at historical highs, overseas long-term funds such as MSCI have entered the market, and domestic long-term funds such as social security funds have entered the market. The capital market has broad potential for incremental funds. Under the slowdown of economic growth in the second half of the year and moderately loose liquidity expectations, performance is still the \"certainty\" sought after by funds, and the high-prosperity sector and the medium-market value sector with spreading prosperity are still expected to get out of the structural market. The turnover rate of popular concept sectors has been greatly adjusted this week. After trading cools down and short-term compensation losses, the profit-making effect is expected to pick up. In terms of allocation direction, it is recommended to pay attention to technology companies with long-term high-quality business models and sustainable performance, with the core allocation of \"hard technology\" sectors such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, military electronics and communications; The semi-annual report market of the financial industry is in progress. The overall valuation level of the financial industry is relatively cheap, and the performance in the first half of the year has been steadily recovered. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial sector targets with outstanding semi-annual report performance.10.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>: The downside of the index may be limited, and the market style may still be \"biased towards growth\"At present, the downward trend of growth is also being more widely expected, and the downward trend of most commodity prices continues further. Based on the latest domestic situation, the market may have to gradually reset its growth expectations for the second half of the year and next year. Against the background of strengthening expectations for the withdrawal of external policies, declining growth in China and concerns about industrial regulatory policies, it may be necessary to downplay the overall expectations for the equity index. However, considering that the overall market valuation is not high, the downside space of the index may also be limited. At the structural level, the reset of growth expectations means that macro policies may continue to be stable and looser. In terms of allocation, we believe that we can further reduce the allocation of strong cyclical sectors, and the market style may still be \"biased towards growth\".Configuration suggestion: The growth style controls the rhythm, and some \"old white horses\" are allocated in a balanced way. (1) High prosperity, China's competitive or growing industrial chains: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaics, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. (2) Pan-consumer industry: bottom-up stock selection in pan-consumption, including daily necessities, household appliances, automobiles and parts, medicine and medical equipment, light industry and home furnishing, etc.; (3) Gradually reduce the cyclical allocation, but pay attention to some cycles with favorable structure or structural growth characteristics: non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals and financial leaders who benefit from the great development trend of wealth and asset management.","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Ten Brokerage Strategies: The market's risk release is coming to an end, gradually laying out on the left side</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Ten Brokerage Strategies: The market's risk release is coming to an end, gradually laying out on the left side\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2021-08-23 07:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLast week, the A-share market showed a volatile decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.69%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 4.55%. The cumulative net outflow of northbound funds was 10.491 billion yuan. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan on the 23rd consecutive trading day. Hong Kong stocks were affected by the continued sharp decline of heavyweights. The Hang Seng Index fell 5.84% on a weekly basis, and the State Index fell 6.78% on a weekly basis. However, the Hang Seng Technology Index continued to fall 10.54% on a weekly basis, hitting another record low.How to interpret the market outlook? Let's see the summary of the latest top ten brokerage strategies.1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>: The market's risk release is coming to an end and gradually deploying on the leftThe national policy of common prosperity and the corresponding policy packages in the future will not harm the market-oriented business logic. Under the policy tone of preventing financial risks, the impact of local credit risks is also controllable. Investors still need to wait for more signals to correct policy misunderstandings. It is expected that the third quarter will be the low point of the domestic macro-economy during the year, and the market liquidity will still maintain a tight balance. Differences in policies and economic prospects will cause disordered investor behavior, and the release of market risks is coming to an end. Adhere to a balanced allocation and gradually lay out on the left. In terms of specific configuration, the growth manufacturing sector has shifted from a high-level track to a relatively low-level track, such as the military industry catalyzed by the performance of the interim report and 5G, communication equipment, and auto parts whose fundamentals have ushered in an inflection point; Recommend automobiles, apparel, CXO, vaccines and medical services in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors; The financial sector recommends some retail banks and securities firms with card wealth management with valuation cost performance or medium-and long-term growth logic.2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>: Styles are just beginning instead of switchingLooking pragmatically at future investment opportunities, technological growth is still the main investment opportunity in the next stage, and the style has just begun rather than switching. Mid-cap blue chips and technology growth have become the core words of investment. Under the current economic pressure, steady fiscal growth and severe energy conservation situation, new energy infrastructure is the preferred direction for investment at present. Six major tracks including photovoltaics, BIPV, wind power, UHV, charging piles, and pumped storage are recommended.3.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">Sinolink Securities</a>: There is no need to be overly pessimistic when the Shanghai Composite Index is around 3300-3400 pointsThe fundamental reason for the increase in short-term market volatility is that the market is still waiting for many uncertainties to come to fruition. In the current stock market, the market lacks a clear main line under high turnover. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index around 3300-3400 points. On the one hand, the performance of listed companies is still supported. On the other hand, after the valuation switch, driven by high performance growth, the current A-share valuation has a certain margin of safety. Although the structural valuation differentiation is still relatively obvious, there are still sectors with certain cost performance in the market, such as the midstream manufacturing industry.4.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>: This bull market is not over yet, and the market will still be full of opportunities in the next six monthsA-shares have fallen significantly in the last week, with the CSI 300 falling 3.6% and the ChiNext Index falling 4.6%. Since July 1, the overall market has been weak, and investors have doubts about the market outlook. We believe that combined with the macro background and micro-enterprise profits, this year is similar to 2010, and the second half is more exciting. Drawing lessons from the annual market fluctuations and bull market cycles in history, the market is still full of opportunities in the next six months.Core conclusions: (1) Statistics show that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 market is more than 15% at least once a year. This year's macro background is similar to that of 2010, and the second half of the stock market is more exciting. (2) The ROE of listed companies is expected to continue to rise to 22Q1, the market valuation level and sentiment indicators are acceptable, and the current bull market is not over yet. (3) The market has moved from solo to public, taking into account<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Manufacturing and traditional midstream and downstream manufacturing, and pay attention to depression industries, such as securities firms.5.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">West China Securities</a>: High prosperity growth such as Ning combination is the main line of allocationUnder the concern of uncertain policy trends at home and abroad, the market risk appetite has been lowered recently. However, the current overall valuation of A-shares is reasonable, and the risk of emotional and chip concentration has been released in the short-term adjustment. With the uncertain factors landing, the market is expected to gradually get out of the bottoming period. The core factor that determines the market style in the future is still the relative advantage of profitability.Specifically, the valuation of the consumer sector has continued to decline recently, and more certain signals still need to wait for the fundamental turning point before the market regains consensus; Under the framework of policy \"cross-cyclical adjustment\", the current policy is more \"supporting but not lifting\", and the boost to traditional infrastructure (pro-cyclical) may be slower. Judging from the forecast of the interim report, the prosperity of the growth track is difficult to falsify, and the market outlook is still the key allocation direction. Specific to industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to: \"new energy industry chain (electrical equipment, nonferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), new infrastructure (intelligent transportation, etc.), military industry\", etc.; Theme investment focus: \"Carbon neutrality (green industry) connotation expansion, Hongmeng main line\".6.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>: Countermeasures under the reappearance of microstructure adjustmentIncreased policy uncertainty has caused A-shares, especially sectors greatly affected by policies, to experience a double kill in performance and valuation. The current microstructure of the A-share market is still not healthy. Recently, \"promoting common prosperity in high-quality development\" and \"specialization\" The \"special and new\" policy environment will further strengthen the main line of \"small-cap growth\". It is recommended to pay attention to the technology manufacturing industry whose mid-term performance (forecast) is restored, supplemented by some infrastructure benefit varieties. It is recommended to continue to allocate \"market value sinking\"-(1) \"policy + technology + supply and demand gap\" multi-wheel drive new energy vehicles (lithium/diaphragm)/photovoltaics; (2) \"Fewer people\" + the growth and diffusion of industrial policy inclination (military industry); (3) Manufacturing industry (construction machinery/cement) with easing cost suppression + marginal change in demand.7.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">Huaan Securities</a>: Waiting for risk appetite to return to the main line of steady growth can still be expectedEmotional disturbances The market volatility has increased recently, but there is still no downward pressure from the trend. The overall pattern of the structural market has not changed, the growth style is expected to continue to dominate, and the cyclical style is also worthy of attention. After market digestion, risk appetite is expected to return to stability. At present, the macro environment, monetary environment and market environment at home and abroad are relatively stable, so the market risk appetite also has the basic conditions for overall stability in the short term. In terms of specific structure, Baima's leading mid-term report fell short of expectations, market supervision became stricter, and the consumption recovery process repeatedly fell short of expectations, resulting in weak consumption style preferences. However, the growth style has both liquidity, performance, and catalyst support, and its risk appetite is still relatively dominant. Focus on two main lines with profit advantages. Main line 1: Growth style, continue to pay attention to the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chains whose prosperity is at an absolutely high level, and at the same time pay attention to structural opportunities that benefit from growth diffusion; Main line 2: cyclical style, focusing on structural opportunities with high prosperity, including the chemical industry with high prosperity, especially the phosphorus chemical sector, and the general automatic equipment sector that benefits from the upgrading of the manufacturing industry.8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601696\">BOC Securities</a>: It is recommended to grasp the excess returns of low valuation pro-cyclical sectorsRecently, the market has undergone a certain degree of adjustment, and the resonance of internal and external factors has led to a downward trend in market risk appetite. From the perspective of market structure, the two major directions of early market capital grouping have faced certain fluctuations in the near future. The stable profit model of traditional consumer leaders may face certain potential impacts. On the other hand, for track stocks represented by new energy and photovoltaics, although the industry prosperity continues to be high, the current valuation is high, and the hesitation to add new funds leads to high volatility in the sector. In terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to grasp the excess returns of low-valuation pro-cyclical sectors. Secondly, we can pay attention to the valuation switching opportunities of the leading industries represented by new energy and semiconductors in the fourth quarter. Looking forward, under the differentiation of industry performance, the characteristics of financial management and the growth certainty of leading securities firms are higher, and they are expected to enjoy valuation premiums.9. Yuekai Securities: The capital market has broad potential for incremental fundsIncreased expectations of Fed policy tightening may lead to short-term adjustment pressure on U.S. stocks, but the impact on A-shares will be limited. In addition, fund shares are at historical highs, overseas long-term funds such as MSCI have entered the market, and domestic long-term funds such as social security funds have entered the market. The capital market has broad potential for incremental funds. Under the slowdown of economic growth in the second half of the year and moderately loose liquidity expectations, performance is still the \"certainty\" sought after by funds, and the high-prosperity sector and the medium-market value sector with spreading prosperity are still expected to get out of the structural market. The turnover rate of popular concept sectors has been greatly adjusted this week. After trading cools down and short-term compensation losses, the profit-making effect is expected to pick up. In terms of allocation direction, it is recommended to pay attention to technology companies with long-term high-quality business models and sustainable performance, with the core allocation of \"hard technology\" sectors such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, military electronics and communications; The semi-annual report market of the financial industry is in progress. The overall valuation level of the financial industry is relatively cheap, and the performance in the first half of the year has been steadily recovered. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial sector targets with outstanding semi-annual report performance.10.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>: The downside of the index may be limited, and the market style may still be \"biased towards growth\"At present, the downward trend of growth is also being more widely expected, and the downward trend of most commodity prices continues further. Based on the latest domestic situation, the market may have to gradually reset its growth expectations for the second half of the year and next year. Against the background of strengthening expectations for the withdrawal of external policies, declining growth in China and concerns about industrial regulatory policies, it may be necessary to downplay the overall expectations for the equity index. However, considering that the overall market valuation is not high, the downside space of the index may also be limited. At the structural level, the reset of growth expectations means that macro policies may continue to be stable and looser. In terms of allocation, we believe that we can further reduce the allocation of strong cyclical sectors, and the market style may still be \"biased towards growth\".Configuration suggestion: The growth style controls the rhythm, and some \"old white horses\" are allocated in a balanced way. (1) High prosperity, China's competitive or growing industrial chains: electric vehicle industry chain, photovoltaics, technology hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. (2) Pan-consumer industry: bottom-up stock selection in pan-consumption, including daily necessities, household appliances, automobiles and parts, medicine and medical equipment, light industry and home furnishing, etc.; (3) Gradually reduce the cyclical allocation, but pay attention to some cycles with favorable structure or structural growth characteristics: non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemicals and financial leaders who benefit from the great development trend of wealth and asset management.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f138f3fb791af2ca9b5d974d311cd40d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/482283","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2161740649","content_text":"上周，A股市场呈现震荡下跌，沪指累计跌2.53%，深证成指累计跌3.69%，创业板指累计下跌4.55%，北向资金累计净流出104.91亿元，沪深两市成交额已连续第23个交易日突破1万亿元。港股受权重股持续大跌影响，恒指按周大跌5.84%，国指周跌6.78%，但恒生科技指数继续周大跌10.54%，再创历史新低。\n后市市场具体如何演绎，且看最新十大券商策略汇总。\n1. 中信证券：市场的风险释放已接近尾声 逐步左侧布局\n共同富裕的国策方针以及未来相应的政策配套并不会伤害市场化商业逻辑，防范金融风险的政策基调下局部信用风险的影响也可控，投资者仍需等待更多信号来纠偏政策误读。预计三季度是国内宏观经济的年内低点，市场流动性依旧维持紧平衡，政策和经济前景的分歧造成投资者行为紊乱，市场风险释放已接近尾声，坚持均衡配置，逐步左侧布局。具体配置上，成长制造板块里从高位的赛道转向相对低位的赛道，如受中报业绩催化的军工以及基本面迎来拐点的5G、通信设备、汽车零部件；消费和医药板块内推荐汽车、服饰、CXO、疫苗和医疗服务等；金融板块推荐部分具备估值性价比或中长期成长逻辑的零售型银行和卡位财富管理的券商。\n2. 国泰君安：风格才刚刚开始而不是切换\n务实地看待未来投资机会，科技成长仍是下一阶段主要投资机会，风格才刚刚开始而不是切换。中盘蓝筹、科技成长为投资的核心词。在经济现压力财政稳增长和严峻的节能形势下，能源新基建是当下投资的优选方向，推荐光伏、BIPV、风电、特高压、充电桩、抽水蓄能等六大赛道。\n3. 国金证券：上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观\n短期市场波动加大的根本原因是市场仍等待诸多不确定性落地，当前存量市场中，高成交额下市场缺乏明确主线。上证指数在3300-3400点附近无须过度悲观，一方面上市公司业绩仍有支撑，另一方面，经历了估值切换后，在业绩高增长的驱动下，当前A股估值具有一定的安全边际。尽管结构上估值分化仍较为明显，但市场中仍存在具备一定性价比的板块，比如中游制造行业。\n4. 海通证券：本轮牛市尚未走完 未来半年市场仍充满机会\n最近一周A股下跌明显，沪深300跌3.6%、创业板指跌4.6%，7月1日以来市场整体走的较弱，投资者对后市心存疑虑。我们认为，结合宏观背景和微观企业盈利看，今年类似2010年，下半场更精彩。借鉴历史上市场年度波动和牛市周期规律，未来半年市场仍充满机会。\n核心结论：（1）统计显示，沪深300每年至少一次15%以上行情，今年宏观背景类似2010年，股市后半场望更精彩。（2）上市公司ROE望继续回升至22Q1，市场估值水平和情绪指标尚可，本轮牛市尚未走完。（3）市场从独乐乐走向众乐乐，兼顾智能制造和传统中下游制造，并注意洼地行业，如券商等。\n5. 华西证券：宁组合等高景气成长是配置主线\n在海内外政策走向不确定的担忧下，近期市场风险偏好有所调降，但目前A股整体估值合理，并在短期调整中释放了情绪面及筹码集中的风险，随着不确定因素的落地，市场将有望逐步走出磨底期。后续决定市场风格的核心因素仍在于盈利的相对优势。\n具体来看，消费板块近期估值持续调降，更确定的信号还需等待基本面拐点后，市场重拾共识；政策“跨周期调节”的框架下，当前政策更多是“托而不举”，对传统基建（顺周期）的提振可能会慢一些。从中报预告来看，成长赛道的景气度难以证伪，后市仍是重点配置方向。具体到行业配置上，建议关注：“新能源产业链（电气设备、有色、化工等）、新基建（智能交通等）、军工”等；主题投资关注：“碳中和（绿色产业）内涵拓展、鸿蒙主线”。\n6. 广发证券：微观结构调整再现下的应对之策\n政策不确定加大使得A股尤其是受政策影响较大的板块出现了业绩估值双杀，当前A股市场微观结构仍未健康，近期“在高质量发展中促进共同富裕”和“专精特新”政策环境也都会进一步强化“小盘成长”主线。建议关注中报业绩（预告）修复的科技制造业，辅以部分基建受益品种。建议继续配置“市值下沉”——（1）“政策+技术+供需缺口”多轮驱动的新能源车（锂/隔膜）/光伏；（2）“人少”+ 产业政策倾斜的成长扩散（军工）；（3）成本压制缓和+需求边际变化的制造业（工程机械/水泥）。\n7. 华安证券：等待风险偏好重归平稳 成长主线仍可期待\n情绪扰动近期市场波动加大，但目前仍不具备趋势性下行的压力，结构市行情的大格局未变，成长风格有望继续占优，周期风格也值得关注。经过市场消化后，风险偏好有望复归平稳。目前国内外的宏观环境、货币环境及市场环境都相对稳定，因此短期内市场风险偏好也具备整体平稳的基础条件。具体结构上，白马龙头中报不及预期、市场监管趋严、消费复苏进程屡不及预期，导致消费风格偏好较弱。而成长风格流动性、业绩、催化剂支撑兼备，风险偏好仍相对占优。关注两条具有盈利优势的主线。主线一：成长风格，继续关注景气处于绝对高位的半导体、新能源车产业链，同时关注受益于成长扩散的结构性机会；主线二：周期风格，关注高景气结构性机会，包括景气处于高位的化工，尤其是磷化工板块，以及受益于制造业升级的通用自动设备板块。\n8. 中银证券：建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益\n近期市场出现一定幅度的调整，内外因素共振导致市场风险偏好出现下行。从市场结构层面来看，前期市场资金抱团的两大方向近期均面临一定波动。传统消费龙头稳定的盈利模式或面临一定潜在冲击，而反观新能源、光伏为代表的赛道股，行业景气虽然延续高位但当前估值高企，新增资金犹豫不决导致板块高位震荡。行业配置方面，建议把握低估值顺周期板块超额收益。其次，可关注新能源和半导体代表的主导产业四季度板块估值切换机会。往后看，行业业绩分化下，财管特色和龙头券商成长确定性更高，有望享受估值溢价。\n9. 粤开证券：资本市场增量资金潜力广阔\n美联储政策收紧的预期提升，或将导致美股短期调整压力，但对A股影响有限。此外，基金份额在历史高位、MSCI等海外长期资金入市、社保基金等国内长期资金入市等，资本市场增量资金潜力广阔。在下半年经济增速趋缓+流动性预期适度宽松之下，业绩仍是资金追捧的“确定性”，高景气板块、景气扩散的中等市值板块仍有望走出结构性行情。热门概念板块的换手率本周有较大的调整，交投降温、短期补跌后，挣钱效应有望回升。配置方向上，建议关注长期拥有优质商业模式、业绩可持续的科技企业，核心配置新能源汽车、半导体、军工电子和通信等“硬科技”板块；金融行业的半年报行情进行中，金融行业整体估值水平较便宜，且上半年业绩稳健修复，建议关注半年报业绩表现突出的金融板块标的。\n10. 中金公司：指数下行空间可能有限 市场风格或仍会“偏向成长”\n目前增长下行趋势也正在得到更广泛预期，大部分商品价格下行趋势进一步延续。综合国内最新形势，市场可能要逐步重设下半年及明年的增长预期，在外围政策退出预期强化、中国增速趋降和产业监管政策担忧的背景下，可能要淡化对权益指数的整体预期，但考虑市场整体估值不高，指数下行空间可能也有限。结构层面上，增长预期重设意味着宏观政策可能延续稳中趋松，配置上我们认为可以进一步减配强周期板块，市场风格或仍会“偏向成长”。\n配置建议：成长风格把控节奏，部分“老白马”均衡配置。（1）高景气度、中国已具备竞争力或正在壮大的产业链：电动车产业链、光伏、科技硬件与软件、电子半导体、部分制造业资本品等。（2）泛消费行业：在泛消费，包括日常用品、家电、汽车及零部件、医药及医疗器械、轻工家居等领域自下而上择股；（3）逐步降低周期配置但关注部分结构有利或具备结构性成长特征的周期：有色金属如锂等，化工以及受益于财富及资管大发展趋势的金融龙头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5613416,"commentId":"5613416","gmtCreate":1629678268029,"gmtModify":1635145181862,"authorId":3585607107146910,"author":{"id":3585607107146910,"idStr":"3585607107146910","authorId":3585607107146910,"name":"阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛阿弥陀佛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65376074efd4faf8b600b5173eb0f0c4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":832731894,"objectIdStr":"832731894","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑] 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