Good-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

超会嗷呜
2021-08-10

Good

The Federal Reserve's "fig leaf", July non-farm payrolls were actually "faked"

此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳

The Federal Reserve's "fig leaf", July non-farm payrolls were actually "faked"

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":896553631,"tweetId":"896553631","gmtCreate":1628595951623,"gmtModify":1676529790763,"author":{"id":3581586310901443,"idStr":"3581586310901443","authorId":3581586310901443,"authorIdStr":"3581586310901443","name":"超会嗷呜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e26b9eaf27c2a721c4063587d326740","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896553631","repostId":1128522311,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128522311","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1628596205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128522311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-10 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\", July non-farm payrolls were actually \"faked\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128522311","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳","content":"<p>Previously, with the explosion of inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve has always claimed that inflation is \"temporary\" and that inflation in the United States will decline in the future, and the Federal Reserve is not yet in rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the July interest rate meeting that millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" can it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became a \"fig leaf\" for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm jobs increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July and rose 4.0% year-on-year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth in nearly 40 years this year.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payrolls data has greatly excited the market, and the Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish. The market expects that the timetable for tapering bond purchases will be released at the Jackson Hole meeting this month or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also made hawkish remarks.</b></p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Fed is rapidly approaching the time to start reducing bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key criterion to start a rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start withdrawing support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some officials still agree with Powell that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>The Real U.S. Employment State</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job vacancies increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million; The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. The number of recruits in June rose to 6.7 million from 6 million last month, the second largest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, job vacancies show that the economic recovery in the United States is strong, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is that many Americans are reluctant to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of new crown cases and hospitalizations in the United States hit a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the epidemic, unemployment benefits in the United States averaged about $387 per week. After the epidemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus plans, including an additional unemployment benefit of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average weekly net income of unemployed people in the United States reaches $687, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 per hour, which is more than twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. It is no wonder that millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" to receive benefits instead of finding a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even canceled the $300 weekly subsidy early. About 7.5 million Americans may lose unemployment benefits. That said, it may take one to two months before the truest employment data in the United States is revealed.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction of asset purchases will be certain.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\", July non-farm payrolls were actually \"faked\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve's \"fig leaf\", July non-farm payrolls were actually \"faked\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Previously, with the explosion of inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve has always claimed that inflation is \"temporary\" and that inflation in the United States will decline in the future, and the Federal Reserve is not yet in rate hike.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the July interest rate meeting that millions of people in the United States are still unemployed. He stressed that the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it can make substantial progress in stabilizing prices and full employment. Only when the U.S. job market \"makes some progress\" can it be possible to change loose monetary policy and start to reduce the scale of asset purchases.</p><p>For a time, the employment situation became a \"fig leaf\" for the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>The Fed's \"fig leaf\" can't be covered</b></p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last Friday showed that U.S. non-farm jobs increased by 943,000 in July, the largest increase since August 2020, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in 16 months. Figures for both May and June were revised to show 119,000 more new jobs than previously reported. The labor force participation rate increased to 61.7% from 61.6% in June. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% in July and rose 4.0% year-on-year. Many economists believe the U.S. economy will record its strongest growth in nearly 40 years this year.</p><p>Such strong non-farm payrolls data has greatly excited the market, and the Federal Reserve may have no reason to be dovish. The market expects that the timetable for tapering bond purchases will be released at the Jackson Hole meeting this month or the interest rate meeting in September.</p><p><b>Fed officials have also made hawkish remarks.</b></p><p>Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the U.S. economy is improving faster than expected, the Fed is rapidly approaching the time to start reducing bond purchases, and inflation has reached a key criterion to start a rate hike. Bostic said he expects to start tapering bond purchases in the fourth quarter, but he is open to starting tapering bond purchases earlier if the job market maintains its recent strong growth pace.</p><p>Boston Fed President Rosengren said the Fed may start withdrawing support measures earlier than that. Richmond Fed President Barkin said this year's high inflation may have met a criterion for the Fed's rate hike, but the job market still needs to recover further before rate hike.</p><p>Although these officials are generally hawkish, some officials still agree with Powell that the job market needs further recovery. Isn't such a strong non-farm payrolls report enough?</p><p><b>The Real U.S. Employment State</b></p><p>Data released by the United States on Monday showed that JOLTS job vacancies increased by 590,000 in June to 10.073 million, a record high, far exceeding the expected 9.27 million; The May figure was revised upward from 9.209 million to 9.5 million. The number of recruits in June rose to 6.7 million from 6 million last month, the second largest increase since the government began tracking the data in 2000.</p><p>On the one hand, job vacancies show that the economic recovery in the United States is strong, and companies are increasing hiring, but in fact, a large part of the reason is that many Americans are reluctant to go to work.</p><p>Recently, the number of new crown cases and hospitalizations in the United States hit a six-month high, and the outbreak of the epidemic has made some people reluctant to return to work. In addition, a large number of people give up their jobs in order to receive high benefits. Because they have no willingness to work, these people are not included in the unemployment rate, so in fact, the real unemployment rate in the United States is higher than 5.4%.</p><p>Before the outbreak of the epidemic, unemployment benefits in the United States averaged about $387 per week. After the epidemic, the federal government launched a series of economic stimulus plans, including an additional unemployment benefit of $300 per week.</p><p>This means that the average weekly net income of unemployed people in the United States reaches $687, which is equivalent to a wage of $17.17 per hour, which is more than twice the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. It is no wonder that millions of Americans are willing to \"lie flat\" to receive benefits instead of finding a job.</p><p>Soon, though, enhanced unemployment benefits will expire in early September, and many states have even canceled the $300 weekly subsidy early. About 7.5 million Americans may lose unemployment benefits. That said, it may take one to two months before the truest employment data in the United States is revealed.</p><p>If the employment data is still strong by then, the Fed's \"fig leaf\" will no longer exist, and the Fed's reduction of asset purchases will be certain.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128522311","content_text":"此前，随着美国的通胀数据的爆表，美联储却一直声称通胀是“暂时的”，美国未来通胀会下滑，美联储还不到加息的时候。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上曾表示，美国仍有数百万人失业。他强调，美国经济要想在稳定物价和充分就业方面取得实质性进展还有很长的路要走。只有美国就业市场 “取得一些进展”，才可能改变宽松的货币政策并开启缩减资产购买规模。\n一时间，就业状况成了美联储的“遮羞布”。\n美联储的“遮羞布”遮不住了\n上周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农就业岗位增加94.3万个，创2020年8月以来的最大增幅，失业率降至5.4%，为16个月最低。5月和6月的数据均被修正，显示新增就业岗位数比之前报告的多11.9万个。劳动参与率从6月的61.6%提高到61.7%。7月平均时薪增长0.4%，同比上涨4.0%。许多经济学家认为今年美国经济将录得近40年来最强劲增长。\n如此强劲的非农就业数据令市场大为振奋，美联储或再无鸽派的理由，市场预期缩减购债规模的时间表将在本月杰克逊霍尔的会议或者9月的利率会议上发布。\n美联储官员也纷纷发表鹰派的言论。\n亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克表示，美国经济改善速度比预期更快，美联储正在快速接近开始削减购债规模的时点，通胀已经达到了满足开始加息的一个关键标准。博斯蒂克称，他预计在第四季开始缩减购债规模，但如果就业市场保持近期的强劲增长步伐，他对更早开始缩减购债持开放态度。\n波士顿联储总裁罗森格伦表示，美联储可能比这更早地开始撤走支持措施。里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金表示，今年的高通胀可能已经满足了美联储加息的一个标准，不过在加息之前，就业市场仍需进一步恢复。\n虽然这几位官员整体偏鹰派，但是还是有部分官员同鲍威尔的观点一致，认为就业市场需进一步恢复，难道如此强劲的非农就业报告还不够吗？\n真实的美国就业状况\n周一美国公布的数据显示，6月JOLTS职位空缺增加了59万个，达到1,007.3万个，创纪录新高，远超预期的927万个；5月数据从920.9万上修至950万6月招聘人数从上月的600万升至670万，为政府自2000年开始追踪该资料以来的第二大增幅。\n职位的空缺一方面表明美国经济复苏强劲，各个公司都在加大招聘，但实际上很大一部分原因是由于很多美国人不愿意去工作导致的。\n近期，美国新冠病例数与住院人数创下六个月新高，疫情的爆发令一部分人不愿意重返就业岗位。此外，还有很大一部分人是为了领取高额的救济金而放弃工作，由于没有工作意愿，这部分人是不算在失业率里面的，所以实际上美国的真实失业率是要比5.4%高的。\n在疫情暴发之前，美国的失业补助约为平均每周387美元，而在疫情之后，联邦政府推出了一系列的经济刺激计划，其中就包括每周300美元的额外失业福利。\n这意味着美国失业民众平均每周的净收入达到687美元，相当于每小时17.17美元的工资，是联邦最低工资每小时7.25美元的两倍多，无怪乎数百万的美国人愿意“躺平”领救济金而不去找份工作。\n不过很快，增强型失业救济金将于9月初到期，许多州甚至提前取消了每周300美元的补助，大约750万美国人可能会失去失业救济金。也就是说，美国最真实的就业数据可能需要一到两个月后才能揭晓。\n假如到时候的就业数据依旧强劲的话，美联储的“遮羞布”将不复存在，美联储缩减资产购买规模也将板上钉钉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2199,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}