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2022-07-02

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Goldman Sachs warns: The risk of another sell-off frenzy in U.S. stocks remains high

美国消费疲软对企业盈利的影响正在显现，对美股造成的冲击将超过股票抛售。

Goldman Sachs warns: The risk of another sell-off frenzy in U.S. stocks remains high

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Unless bond yields start to fall and cushion the rising equity risk premium on recession fears, equity valuations are likely to fall further.\" Global equities have just had one of their worst six months on record, with stubbornly high inflation and hawkish central banks raising fears of a sharp economic slowdown. The S&P 500 had its worst first half since 1970, losing more than $8 trillion in market value.</p><p>Goldman Sachs last week, after analyzing the total $2.4 trillion equity positions held by nearly 800 hedge funds at the beginning of the second quarter of this year, pointed out that hedge funds have recently significantly reduced the holding period and turnover rate of long portfolios, reflecting the broader asset reallocation underway across the market.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs analysis,<b>In recent years, the low interest rate policies of various countries have made the stock market very attractive, and investors have turned to the investment philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative to equities (TINA)\".</b>As institutional and household investors increase their equity exposure, long-term growth stocks benefit the most, and valuations accelerate.</p><p>But by contrast, today's trend toward positive interest rates, growing recession fears,<b>The declining stock market has sent another signal to investors-there are still plenty of other stock alternatives (There Are Reasonable Alternatives, or TARA) in the market, pushing them to flee the stock market.</b></p><p>This week Mueller-Glissman reiterated:</p><p>\"TINA drove the bull market in stocks, but investors turned to TARA amid stickiness of inflation and rising bond yields. As central banks are busy fighting inflation, it's hard for them to hedge against a recession.\" The strategists said,<b>Corporate earnings are also likely to come under pressure in the second half as margins will be tested by soaring prices and weakening consumer confidence.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs has previously warned that the impact of weak U.S. consumption on corporate earnings is emerging, and the impact on U.S. stocks will exceed stock selling. In this case, U.S. stocks may be under further pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs warns: The risk of another sell-off frenzy in U.S. stocks remains high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs warns: The risk of another sell-off frenzy in U.S. stocks remains high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-01 22:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>Goldman Sachs strategists said,<b>The risk of another selling frenzy in U.S. stocks remains high, as investors only expect a mild recession.</b></p><p>Strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a June 30 note:</p><p>\"Much of this year's valuation cuts have been due to higher interest rates and inflation. Unless bond yields start to fall and cushion the rising equity risk premium on recession fears, equity valuations are likely to fall further.\" Global equities have just had one of their worst six months on record, with stubbornly high inflation and hawkish central banks raising fears of a sharp economic slowdown. The S&P 500 had its worst first half since 1970, losing more than $8 trillion in market value.</p><p>Goldman Sachs last week, after analyzing the total $2.4 trillion equity positions held by nearly 800 hedge funds at the beginning of the second quarter of this year, pointed out that hedge funds have recently significantly reduced the holding period and turnover rate of long portfolios, reflecting the broader asset reallocation underway across the market.</p><p>According to Goldman Sachs analysis,<b>In recent years, the low interest rate policies of various countries have made the stock market very attractive, and investors have turned to the investment philosophy of \"There Is No Alternative to equities (TINA)\".</b>As institutional and household investors increase their equity exposure, long-term growth stocks benefit the most, and valuations accelerate.</p><p>But by contrast, today's trend toward positive interest rates, growing recession fears,<b>The declining stock market has sent another signal to investors-there are still plenty of other stock alternatives (There Are Reasonable Alternatives, or TARA) in the market, pushing them to flee the stock market.</b></p><p>This week Mueller-Glissman reiterated:</p><p>\"TINA drove the bull market in stocks, but investors turned to TARA amid stickiness of inflation and rising bond yields. As central banks are busy fighting inflation, it's hard for them to hedge against a recession.\" The strategists said,<b>Corporate earnings are also likely to come under pressure in the second half as margins will be tested by soaring prices and weakening consumer confidence.</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs has previously warned that the impact of weak U.S. consumption on corporate earnings is emerging, and the impact on U.S. stocks will exceed stock selling. In this case, U.S. stocks may be under further pressure.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663637\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef05ac737ccc5e804506aa744d0c55a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663637","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1104486104","content_text":"作者：王眉高盛策略师表示，美股再次出现抛售狂潮的风险仍然很高，因为投资者只预计将出现温和衰退。以Christian Mueller-Glissmann为首的策略师在6月30日的一份报告中写道：“今年估值下调的大部分原因是利率和通胀上升。除非债券收益率开始下降，并缓冲因经济衰退担忧而上升的股票风险溢价，否则股票估值可能会进一步下降。”全球股市刚刚经历了有记录以来最糟糕的六个月之一，居高不下的通胀和鹰派央行引发了经济大幅放缓的担忧。标普500指数上半年的表现为1970年以来最差，市值损失超过8万亿美元。高盛上周在分析了近800家对冲基金在今年第二季度初持有的2.4万亿美元的股票总头寸后指出，对冲基金最近大幅减少了多头投资组合的持有期和换手率，反映出整个市场正在进行更广泛的资产重新配置。高盛分析认为，近年来，各国的低利率政策使得股市十分具有吸引力，投资者纷纷转向“除股票外别无选择（There Is No Alternative to equities，简称 TINA）”的投资理念。随着机构投资者和家庭投资者增加股票敞口，长期成长性股票受益最大，估值加速上升。但相比之下，如今恢复正利率的趋势、日益增长的经济衰退担忧，不断下跌的股市已经向投资者发出另一种信号——市场上仍有大量其他的股票替代品（There Are Reasonable Alternatives，简称TARA），推动他们纷纷逃离股市。本周Mueller-Glissman重申：“TINA推动了股市的牛市，但在通胀粘性和债券收益率上升的背景下，投资者纷纷转向TARA。由于各国央行正忙于抗击通胀，它们很难顾得上对冲经济衰退。”策略师们表示，下半年企业盈利也可能面临压力，因为利润率将面临物价飙升和消费者信心减弱的考验。高盛此前就警告称，美国消费疲软对企业盈利的影响正在显现，对美股造成的冲击将超过股票抛售。在这种情况下，美股或将进一步承压。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2311,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}