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一度过了么
2020-05-06

U.S. stocks returning to a technical bull market? 10 Signals Suggest It Could Just Be a Bear Trap

以下十个信号可能将暗示美国股市后市将继续走熊

U.S. stocks returning to a technical bull market? 10 Signals Suggest It Could Just Be a Bear Trap

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":927959236,"tweetId":"927959236","gmtCreate":1588719804425,"gmtModify":1705307826910,"author":{"id":3435957463939049,"idStr":"3435957463939049","authorId":3435957463939049,"authorIdStr":"3435957463939049","name":"一度过了么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71f2c80b9f5ac336b495eda7cb89b3a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/927959236","repostId":2033819665,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2033819665","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1588645965,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2033819665?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-05-05 10:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks returning to a technical bull market? 10 Signals Suggest It Could Just Be a Bear Trap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033819665","media":"智通财经网","summary":"以下十个信号可能将暗示美国股市后市将继续走熊","content":"In the past April, the stock market experienced its best monthly performance since 1987, but analysts are skeptical about how long the stock market's performance can last.Panic selling in the stock market in February caused the stock market to fall 10% rapidly from its all-time high. By the time stocks rebounded in March, the market had experienced an unprecedented decline.From February 12 to March 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37%. The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from its February peak. The Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a 30% decline. The S&P 500 index rebounded strongly in April, rising 12.68% in a single month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68648fdfb80e470bffb5b6270b2e129a\">With the recent lifting of lockdown measures in various countries, some investors who were bullish on U.S. stocks before the outbreak of the epidemic poured into the stock market, which was a key factor in pushing the S&P 500 index to its largest monthly gain since 1987.However, some bearish analysts have already said that there is a bubble in U.S. stocks before the epidemic, so the bear market is far from over.Now more and more analysts believe that the stock price does not reflect the earnings, that the stock has now reached a recent high, that the rally may be a short trap, and the bottom of the market may be nowhere in sight.The following ten signals may suggest that the U.S. stock market will continue to be bearish:1. Record-setting \"Buffett indicators\"Investing legend Warren Buffett said back in 2001 that the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP \"is probably the best single metric to assess a valuation at any moment.\"At present, the \"Buffett indicator\" is at a historical record level, even higher than the financial crisis level before the collapse of the Internet bubble and before 2008.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/79bd56588b59170365f44682dd446e9c.jpg\">2. The company's earnings decline continuesAs stocks started hitting new highs in 2019, corporate earnings were already shrinking. Earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 companies declined year-over-year for four consecutive quarters in 2019, according to financial intelligence firm FactSet.Then in the first quarter of 2020, U.S. stocks continued their profit plunge. There's no doubt that the second quarter will be worse. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has an expected P/E of 21.5 times, the highest level since May 2002.3. Massive corporate debt crisisBy December 2019, nearly $10 trillion in U.S. corporate debt was at a record high as a percentage of U.S. GDP. A report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates global corporate debt at $13.5 trillion.As a result, American companies are now suffering from the worst economic crisis in memory, and at the same time, they are saddled with record debt levels. Many have borrowed more to survive. Research firm Debtwire calls it a \"recovery headwind.\"The current overall price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index is the highest since the United States emerged from the financial crisis and the Great Recession in 2008.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/7074c6387deecd73992b99c08b4188ec.jpg\">4. GDP The complete collapse ofThe alarming pace of the stock market rally seems to defy dire GDP forecasts. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett Hassett) previously said GDP could collapse by as much as 30% in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) expects GDP to fall 34% in the second quarter and 6.4% for the full year. It will be worse than any downturn since the Great Depression.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(Morgan Stanley) said the second-quarter GDP loss could be as high as 38%.5. Painful unemploymentIn the past six weeks, the number of unemployed people in the United States has soared to 30 million as the number of new confirmed cases has increased. A few months ago, this was simply unthinkable.The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the unemployment rate will rise to 14% in the second quarter and to? 16%。 But the actual unemployment rate may be more dire than the data reflected in the number of initial jobless claims.6. Consumer confidence crisisU.S. consumers hold unprecedented amounts of household debt while real personal disposable income has plummeted this year. This is a dangerous flag for stocks, whose record valuations depend on the strength of consumers. Tens of millions of people are out of work and saddled with heavy debt, and consumer spending will take time to recover. That will inevitably further erode the earnings of already lagging companies and push stock prices down.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f082de41c01f9b5cff1a7f98ab58c7ad.jpg\">7. \"Aftershock\" of health incidentThe sanitation incident was the main catalyst for this year's economic disaster and stock market crash. The recent rebound in the stock market is a direct reflection of the restart of economies in various countries, but health experts warn that there is still the risk of a second outbreak. The resulting economic crisis may push the financial system to its limits.8. Housing market shocksThe massive layoffs have put the U.S. housing market under the most severe pressure since 2007. The affordability of mortgage loans has caused mortgage servicers, institutions and private housing investors to hold bad assets. Just like 2008, this economic shock brings another spillover risk to the financial crisis.9. Dismal bond yieldsInvestors continue to flock to bonds even as stocks rise. At the same time, the Federal Reserve implemented unlimited quantitative easing and continued to buy U.S. debt. At the end of March, bond yields on U.S. 1-month and 3-month U.S. Treasury bills fell to negative territory. So far, the yield on the one-month T-bill has remained fixed at a low 0.101%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/81d73eee576c6bc53ccd88140a7ac17d.jpg\">10. Malignant deflationary trapEconomists such as Wall Street strategist DavidRosenberg believe that prices will face deflation. Deflation could trigger an a vicious circle and drag down the economic recovery. Falling prices will make it harder for households and companies with high debt records to meet their nominal loan obligations. Such is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's nightmare.","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks returning to a technical bull market? 10 Signals Suggest It Could Just Be a Bear Trap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks returning to a technical bull market? 10 Signals Suggest It Could Just Be a Bear Trap\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n智通财经网2020-05-05 10:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIn the past April, the stock market experienced its best monthly performance since 1987, but analysts are skeptical about how long the stock market's performance can last.Panic selling in the stock market in February caused the stock market to fall 10% rapidly from its all-time high. By the time stocks rebounded in March, the market had experienced an unprecedented decline.From February 12 to March 23, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37%. The S&P 500 fell 33.9% from its February peak. The Nasdaq Composite Index also saw a 30% decline. The S&P 500 index rebounded strongly in April, rising 12.68% in a single month.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68648fdfb80e470bffb5b6270b2e129a\">With the recent lifting of lockdown measures in various countries, some investors who were bullish on U.S. stocks before the outbreak of the epidemic poured into the stock market, which was a key factor in pushing the S&P 500 index to its largest monthly gain since 1987.However, some bearish analysts have already said that there is a bubble in U.S. stocks before the epidemic, so the bear market is far from over.Now more and more analysts believe that the stock price does not reflect the earnings, that the stock has now reached a recent high, that the rally may be a short trap, and the bottom of the market may be nowhere in sight.The following ten signals may suggest that the U.S. stock market will continue to be bearish:1. Record-setting \"Buffett indicators\"Investing legend Warren Buffett said back in 2001 that the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP \"is probably the best single metric to assess a valuation at any moment.\"At present, the \"Buffett indicator\" is at a historical record level, even higher than the financial crisis level before the collapse of the Internet bubble and before 2008.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/79bd56588b59170365f44682dd446e9c.jpg\">2. The company's earnings decline continuesAs stocks started hitting new highs in 2019, corporate earnings were already shrinking. Earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 companies declined year-over-year for four consecutive quarters in 2019, according to financial intelligence firm FactSet.Then in the first quarter of 2020, U.S. stocks continued their profit plunge. There's no doubt that the second quarter will be worse. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has an expected P/E of 21.5 times, the highest level since May 2002.3. Massive corporate debt crisisBy December 2019, nearly $10 trillion in U.S. corporate debt was at a record high as a percentage of U.S. GDP. A report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates global corporate debt at $13.5 trillion.As a result, American companies are now suffering from the worst economic crisis in memory, and at the same time, they are saddled with record debt levels. Many have borrowed more to survive. Research firm Debtwire calls it a \"recovery headwind.\"The current overall price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 Index is the highest since the United States emerged from the financial crisis and the Great Recession in 2008.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/7074c6387deecd73992b99c08b4188ec.jpg\">4. GDP The complete collapse ofThe alarming pace of the stock market rally seems to defy dire GDP forecasts. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett Hassett) previously said GDP could collapse by as much as 30% in the second quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>(Goldman Sachs) expects GDP to fall 34% in the second quarter and 6.4% for the full year. It will be worse than any downturn since the Great Depression.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>(Morgan Stanley) said the second-quarter GDP loss could be as high as 38%.5. Painful unemploymentIn the past six weeks, the number of unemployed people in the United States has soared to 30 million as the number of new confirmed cases has increased. A few months ago, this was simply unthinkable.The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the unemployment rate will rise to 14% in the second quarter and to? 16%。 But the actual unemployment rate may be more dire than the data reflected in the number of initial jobless claims.6. Consumer confidence crisisU.S. consumers hold unprecedented amounts of household debt while real personal disposable income has plummeted this year. This is a dangerous flag for stocks, whose record valuations depend on the strength of consumers. Tens of millions of people are out of work and saddled with heavy debt, and consumer spending will take time to recover. That will inevitably further erode the earnings of already lagging companies and push stock prices down.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f082de41c01f9b5cff1a7f98ab58c7ad.jpg\">7. \"Aftershock\" of health incidentThe sanitation incident was the main catalyst for this year's economic disaster and stock market crash. The recent rebound in the stock market is a direct reflection of the restart of economies in various countries, but health experts warn that there is still the risk of a second outbreak. The resulting economic crisis may push the financial system to its limits.8. Housing market shocksThe massive layoffs have put the U.S. housing market under the most severe pressure since 2007. The affordability of mortgage loans has caused mortgage servicers, institutions and private housing investors to hold bad assets. Just like 2008, this economic shock brings another spillover risk to the financial crisis.9. Dismal bond yieldsInvestors continue to flock to bonds even as stocks rise. At the same time, the Federal Reserve implemented unlimited quantitative easing and continued to buy U.S. debt. At the end of March, bond yields on U.S. 1-month and 3-month U.S. Treasury bills fell to negative territory. So far, the yield on the one-month T-bill has remained fixed at a low 0.101%.<img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/81d73eee576c6bc53ccd88140a7ac17d.jpg\">10. Malignant deflationary trapEconomists such as Wall Street strategist DavidRosenberg believe that prices will face deflation. Deflation could trigger an a vicious circle and drag down the economic recovery. Falling prices will make it harder for households and companies with high debt records to meet their nominal loan obligations. Such is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's nightmare.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/298450.html\">智通财经网</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20200505/20200505072719_87565.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/298450.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2033819665","content_text":"在刚刚过去的四月，股市经历了自1987年以来的最佳月度表现，但是分析师对于股市的表现可以持续多久持怀疑态度。在2月股市的恐慌性抛售导致股市从历史高位迅速下跌10%。到三月份股票出现反弹时，市场已经经历了前所未有的下跌。从2月12日至3月23日，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了37%。标普500则较2月峰值下降33.9%。纳斯达克综合指数也出现了30%的下跌。4月标普500指数强势反弹，单月上涨12.68%。随着近期各国陆续解除封锁措施，部分在卫生事件爆发前看多美股的投资者涌入股市，这是推动标普500指数创出自1987年以来最大单月涨势的一个关键因素。但是也有一部分看跌的分析师在卫生事件之前就已经表示美股存在着泡沫，因此熊市还远远没有结束。现在越来越多的分析师认为，股价并不能反映收益，股票现在已经达到了一个近期的高点，反弹可能是一个空头陷阱，距离市场的底部可能遥遥无期。以下十个信号可能将暗示美国股市后市将继续走熊：1.创纪录的“巴菲特指标”投资传奇人物沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)早在2001年就表示，股票市值与GDP的比率“可能是在任何时刻评估估值的最佳单一指标。”目前“巴菲特指标”处于历史记录水平，甚至高于互联网泡沫崩溃前和2008年之前的金融危机水平。2.公司收益衰退继续随着股市在2019年开始创下新高，企业收益已经处于萎缩之中。根据金融情报公司FactSet的数据，标准普尔500指数公司的每股收益(EPS)2019年连续四个季度同比下降。而随后在2020年第一季度美股延续了盈利暴跌的走势。毫无疑问，第二季度的情况会更糟。与此同时，标准普尔500指数的预期市盈率为21.5倍，创下2002年5月以来的最高水平。3.大规模企业债务危机到2019年12月，近10万亿美元的美国公司债务占美国GDP的比例创历史新高。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的一份报告估计，全球公司债务为13.5万亿美元。因此美国公司现在正承受着记忆中最严重的经济危机，同时背负着创纪录的债务水平。许多人为了生存而借了更多钱。研究公司Debtwire称其为“复苏的不利因素”。标准普尔500指数目前的整体市净率是自2008年美国走出金融危机和大衰退以来最高水平。4. GDP的彻底崩溃股市反弹的惊人步伐似乎无视可怕的GDP预测。白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特(KevinHassett)此前表示，第二季度国内生产总值可能崩溃多达30%。高盛(GoldmanSachs)预计第二季度GDP下降34%，全年下降6.4%。这将比自大萧条以来的任何低迷时期都更为严重。摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)表示，第二季度GDP损失可能高达38%。5.令人痛苦的失业在过去的六周中，随着新增确诊人数增加，美国的失业人数猛增至3000万。几个月前，这简直是不可想象的。美国国会预算办公室(CBO)估计，第二季度的失业率将上升至14%，第三季度的失业率将上升至?16%。但是实际失业率可能比初请失业金人数所反映的数据更为可怕。6.消费者信心危机美国消费者持有前所未有的家庭债务，而今年的实际个人可支配收入却暴跌。对于股市而言，这是一个危险的信号，因为股市创纪录的估值取决于消费者的实力。数以千万计的人失业，背负着沉重的债务，消费者支出将需要时间才能恢复。那将不可避免地进一步侵蚀本已经落后的公司收益，并推低股票价格。7.卫生事件“余震”卫生事件是今年经济灾难和股市崩盘的主要催化剂。股市近期的反弹是对各国经济重启的直接体现，但是健康专家警告说仍存在二次爆发的风险。而因此引发的经济危机可能将金融系统推向极限。8.住房市场冲击大规模的裁员使美国住房市场处于自2007年以来最严峻的压力之下。抵押贷款的承受能力已使抵押贷款服务商，机构以及私人住房投资者持有不良资产。就像2008年一样，这种经济冲击给金融危机带来了另一种溢出风险。9.惨淡的债券收益率即使股市上涨，投资者也继续涌向债券。同时，美联储实施无限量宽松继续买入美债。3月底，美国1个月期和3个月期美国国库券的债券收益率跌至负值。到目前为止，一个月期国库券的收益率仍固定在0.101%的低位。10.恶性通缩陷阱华尔街策略师戴维·罗森伯格(DavidRosenberg)等经济学家认为，价格将面临通缩。通缩可能引发恶性循环，拖累经济复苏。价格下跌将使债务记录居高不下的家庭和公司更加难以履行名义贷款义务。这就是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的噩梦。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".INX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}