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2022-12-28

How many "black swans" will there be next year? These are some of the things investors worry about most.

今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸。

How many "black swans" will there be next year? These are some of the things investors worry about most.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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These are some of the things investors worry about most.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119468919","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸。","content":"<html><head></head><body>Author: Zhu XueyingAfter the worst stock market crash since 2008 and the epic bond market crash of the century, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Industrial Average falling by 8.5%, 19.7%, and 33.8% respectively, 2022 is finally coming to an end.Even so, the very bumpy market performance this year still leaves investors with lingering fears, worrying whether several \"black swan\" events will occur in 2023 and stir up trouble again.These include deeply entrenched high inflation, the looming shadow of an economic recession, a continued rise in the US dollar, setbacks in emerging markets, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and corporate profits facing a storm.High inflation persistsMedia reports indicate that Matthew McLennan, co-head of the global value team at Investment firm First Eagle Investment Management, recently stated that while \"the bond market expects inflation levels to steadily return to normal within 12 months,\" this statement may be a major mistake.He stated in response,Supply-side pressures such as wage growth and rising energy costs may continue to push up inflation, which is a real risk factor.This may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank turning to interest rate cuts in the middle of next year, which could cause a double whammy of stocks and bonds, a stronger dollar, and another crushing blow to emerging markets.McLennan believes:The Federal Reserve did not anticipate high inflation, and in their fight against inflation, they may not have anticipated the occurrence of financial events... The Federal Reserve may have underestimated the risk of a financial crisis. The shadow of economic recession is loomingThe biggest concern currently haunting investors remains whether the economy will fall into recession next year.Once a recession begins, the stock market may continue to decline.Historical data shows that bear markets never bottom out before a recession truly begins.According to data from consulting firm Truist Advisory Services, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 29% during economic recessions since World War II.The dollar continues to riseLooking back at 2022, the surge in the US dollar caused significant losses for many American companies. By the end of the third quarter, 1,200 large companies in the United States and Europe will have lost more than $60 billion in sales due to sharp foreign exchange fluctuations this year.Although the US dollar has given back its previous gains in recent weeks, it remains to be seen whether it can continue its decline.It depends on whether investors believe the Federal Reserve has a tougher stance compared to other central banks.Emerging markets suffer setbacksMany investors currently expect that a slowdown in the dollar and declining energy costs in 2023 may jointly alleviate pressure on emerging markets.However, some analysts believe thatIf global efforts to curb inflation fail, it could turn investors' beautiful visions into a mirage.For example, an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to another surge in energy prices.Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and economics at financial services firm AMP, said:Emerging markets may continue to struggle in 2023. The dollar remains high and may continue to rise, which will have a negative impact on emerging markets, as many countries hold large amounts of dollar debt. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said:A sluggish economy and aggressive monetary tightening, coupled with the resulting geopolitical conflicts and commodity shocks, will cause pain in the financial and emerging markets in the short term. Russia-Ukraine conflict escalatesThe Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continued to dominate global capital markets in the first half of this year, has made it difficult for investors to easily let go. John Vail, global market strategist at Nikko Asset Management, commented:If the conflict escalates and the West increases sanctions, it could have a significant adverse impact. Vail believes:The conflict will severely impact the global supply of food, energy, fertilizers, and some metals and chemicals. Corporate profits face the stormInvestors are concerned that current corporate earnings projections may not fully account for potential recession risks, leaving considerable room for further declines in the stock market.According to data from IBES, a subsidiary of data analytics firm Refinitiv, analysts generally expect revenue from S&P 500 companies to grow by 4.4% next year. However, according to data from Research firm Ned Davis Research, corporate revenue will decline by 24% during an economic recession.In its report at the end of November, JPMorgan projected that S&P 500 companies would earn $205 per share next year, down 9% from its earlier forecast of $225. It was also pointed out that declining consumer and business spending is putting increasing pressure on corporate profits.</body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How many \"black swans\" will there be next year? 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These are some of the things investors worry about most.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-12-28 21:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Author: Zhu XueyingAfter the worst stock market crash since 2008 and the epic bond market crash of the century, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Industrial Average falling by 8.5%, 19.7%, and 33.8% respectively, 2022 is finally coming to an end.Even so, the very bumpy market performance this year still leaves investors with lingering fears, worrying whether several \"black swan\" events will occur in 2023 and stir up trouble again.These include deeply entrenched high inflation, the looming shadow of an economic recession, a continued rise in the US dollar, setbacks in emerging markets, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and corporate profits facing a storm.High inflation persistsMedia reports indicate that Matthew McLennan, co-head of the global value team at Investment firm First Eagle Investment Management, recently stated that while \"the bond market expects inflation levels to steadily return to normal within 12 months,\" this statement may be a major mistake.He stated in response,Supply-side pressures such as wage growth and rising energy costs may continue to push up inflation, which is a real risk factor.This may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank turning to interest rate cuts in the middle of next year, which could cause a double whammy of stocks and bonds, a stronger dollar, and another crushing blow to emerging markets.McLennan believes:The Federal Reserve did not anticipate high inflation, and in their fight against inflation, they may not have anticipated the occurrence of financial events... The Federal Reserve may have underestimated the risk of a financial crisis. The shadow of economic recession is loomingThe biggest concern currently haunting investors remains whether the economy will fall into recession next year.Once a recession begins, the stock market may continue to decline.Historical data shows that bear markets never bottom out before a recession truly begins.According to data from consulting firm Truist Advisory Services, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 29% during economic recessions since World War II.The dollar continues to riseLooking back at 2022, the surge in the US dollar caused significant losses for many American companies. By the end of the third quarter, 1,200 large companies in the United States and Europe will have lost more than $60 billion in sales due to sharp foreign exchange fluctuations this year.Although the US dollar has given back its previous gains in recent weeks, it remains to be seen whether it can continue its decline.It depends on whether investors believe the Federal Reserve has a tougher stance compared to other central banks.Emerging markets suffer setbacksMany investors currently expect that a slowdown in the dollar and declining energy costs in 2023 may jointly alleviate pressure on emerging markets.However, some analysts believe thatIf global efforts to curb inflation fail, it could turn investors' beautiful visions into a mirage.For example, an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to another surge in energy prices.Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and economics at financial services firm AMP, said:Emerging markets may continue to struggle in 2023. The dollar remains high and may continue to rise, which will have a negative impact on emerging markets, as many countries hold large amounts of dollar debt. David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said:A sluggish economy and aggressive monetary tightening, coupled with the resulting geopolitical conflicts and commodity shocks, will cause pain in the financial and emerging markets in the short term. Russia-Ukraine conflict escalatesThe Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continued to dominate global capital markets in the first half of this year, has made it difficult for investors to easily let go. John Vail, global market strategist at Nikko Asset Management, commented:If the conflict escalates and the West increases sanctions, it could have a significant adverse impact. Vail believes:The conflict will severely impact the global supply of food, energy, fertilizers, and some metals and chemicals. Corporate profits face the stormInvestors are concerned that current corporate earnings projections may not fully account for potential recession risks, leaving considerable room for further declines in the stock market.According to data from IBES, a subsidiary of data analytics firm Refinitiv, analysts generally expect revenue from S&P 500 companies to grow by 4.4% next year. However, according to data from Research firm Ned Davis Research, corporate revenue will decline by 24% during an economic recession.In its report at the end of November, JPMorgan projected that S&P 500 companies would earn $205 per share next year, down 9% from its earlier forecast of $225. It was also pointed out that declining consumer and business spending is putting increasing pressure on corporate profits.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53207cf65b0b6d3db3393a387da832f7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119468919","content_text":"作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润直面风暴。高企通胀迟迟不退媒体称，投资机构First Eagle Investment Management的全球价值团队联席主管 Matthew McLennan最新表示，虽然“债市预计通胀水平将在12个月内平稳地回归正常区间”，但是这种说法可能犯了一个大错。他对此表示，工资增长和能源成本上涨等供给端压力或将继续推升通胀，这是一个切实存在的风险因素。而这或将排除美联储及欧洲央行在明年年中转向降息的可能性，可能造成股债双杀、美元走强、新兴市场再遭暴击。McLennan认为：美联储没有预料到高企通胀，而在他们抗击通胀的过程中，或许也并没有预计到金融事件的发生......美联储很可能低估了金融危机出现的风险。经济衰退阴霾降临眼下缠绕在投资者心头的最大隐忧，仍是明年经济是否会陷入衰退。而一旦开启衰退，股市或将继续下行。历史数据显示，在衰退真正开始之前，熊市从未触底。根据咨询机构Truist Advisory Services的数据，自二战以来，标普500指数在经济衰退期间平均跌幅为29%。美元继续走高回顾2022年，美元飙升造成众多美国公司业绩出现显著亏损。截至第三季度末，美国和欧洲的1200家大公司将因为今年以来的外汇剧烈波动损失超过600亿美元的销售额。虽然美元在近几周回吐此前涨幅，但是能否继续下行仍尚未可知，取决于后续投资者认为美联储是否相对于其他央行有更强硬的立场。新兴市场受挫目前许多投资者预计，2023年美元走势放缓及能源成本下降或将共同缓解新兴市场的压力。然而有分析认为，一旦全球遏制通胀的努力化为泡影都或将令投资者的美好愿景变成“镜花水月”，比如一旦俄乌冲突升级或将导致能源价格再度飙升。金融服务机构AMP的投资策略和经济主管Shane Oliver表示：新兴市场可能又要在2023年继续挣扎。美元仍处高位且或将继续上行，这会对新兴市场造成不利影响，因为许多国家都拥有大量美元债。德意志银行首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau表示：经济低迷、激进的货币紧缩政策，叠加由此引发的地缘政治冲突和大宗商品冲击，将在短时间内给金融和新兴市场造成痛苦。俄乌冲突升级今年上半年持续主导全球资本市场局势的俄乌冲突也让投资者难以轻松放下，对此日兴资产管理公司的席全球市场策略师John Vail表示：如果冲突升级，西方加大制裁力度，或将造成相当不利的影响。Vail认为：冲突将对全球粮食、能源、化肥、部分金属及化学品等的供应造成严重冲击。企业利润直面风暴投资者担忧，目前的企业盈利预计可能并没有完全计入潜在的经济衰退风险，因此股市仍留有不少下跌空间。按照数据分析机构Refinitiv旗下IBES的数据，分析师普遍预计明年标普500指数上市公司的收入将增长4.4%，但是从研究机构Ned Davis Research的数据来看，在经济衰退期间，企业收入将下降24%。小摩在11月底的报告中预计，标普500指数上市公司明年的每股收益为205美元，较早前预测的225美元下降9% 。同时指出，消费者和企业支出下降，对企业利润构成了越来越大的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6389,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":105372860,"commentId":"105372860","gmtCreate":1672239719683,"gmtModify":1672239729019,"authorId":3576729709142650,"author":{"id":3576729709142650,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorId":3576729709142650,"name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-3","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":" Tiger Idol","description":"Join the tiger community for 1500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.30","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9924638527,"objectIdStr":"9924638527","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}