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NgSiewTeng
2022-09-12

[微笑]

The hottest real estate market in the world, the bubble is collectively bursting

抵押贷款利率飙升、地区人员流失，购房者和业主均面临压力，火热房地产市场房价大幅下跌。在全球范围内，飙升的借贷成本正在挤压购房者和业主的压力，房地产市场大幅降温。根据在线房产经纪公司Redfin的数据，

The hottest real estate market in the world, the bubble is collectively bursting

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Worldwide, soaring borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers and owners alike, with the housing market cooling sharply.</p><p>The average U.S. home sold below asking price for the first time in nearly 18 months, according to online real estate brokerage Redfin.</p><p>The shift came largely as central banks rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, mortgage rates soared and millions of people who bought homes cheaply during the pandemic faced higher payments. As a result, buyers are retreating, and house prices in hot real estate markets such as the United States, Australia, Canada and Sweden are all falling.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Rob Subbaraman, head of global market research, said:</p><p>\"Interest rates have risen sharply at a time when inflation-adjusted real wages are falling, something young families with debt may not have experienced in their lives.\" U.S. homes sell below list price for first time since 2021</p><p>Redfin said the average selling price-to-listing price ratio fell to 99.8% in the four weeks ending Aug. 28. The rate has not fallen below 100% since March 2021.</p><p>In addition, the supply of homes for sale grew at a record rate in July this year, and the growth rate of new home sales in the United States dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of 2016. Mortgage rates hit their highest level since June this week and are closing in on 2022 highs amid expectations of further rate hike from the Federal Reserve.</p><p>While the U.S. housing market has cooled so far this year, there are some signs that the market is beginning to level off right now. The Redfin report shows that the percentage of homes pending for sale at reduced prices is the same as in the previous four weeks, at 7.5%.</p><p>However, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement:</p><p>\"While the cooling seems to be gradually ending, there are signs that the market has more room to ease. The post-Labor Day economic slowdown this year may be a bit more severe than in previous years when the market was super-tight.\" San Francisco home prices fall sharply amid exodus</p><p>San Francisco home prices plummeted last month amid soaring interest rates and an exodus of workers from tech companies.</p><p>In the four weeks ending Sept. 4, the city's median single-family home price fell 7% from a year earlier, the largest annual decline since 2012, to $1.4 million, according to a Redfin report.</p><p>Compass, a real estate brokerage, said the number of contracts it signed in San Francisco has dropped 25% since August 2021.</p><p>Daryl Fairweather said in an interview: \"Housing prices in San Francisco have become so expensive because there are tech people working here. However, the epidemic and remote work have weakened technology companies' ties to the region.\"</p><p>Home sales across the U.S. have hit the brakes as soaring borrowing costs reduce affordability and sellers remain reluctant to cut prices. San Francisco has been hit hard as its workers remain reluctant to return to their desks, lagging behind resumption rates in other major metro areas and prompting the closure of many restaurants and retailers in the city.</p><p>The global decline in house prices has just begun</p><p>While the housing recession so far hasn't come close to the level of the 2008 financial crisis, data on the housing market is a key variable for central bankers looking to tame inflation without triggering a deep recession.</p><p>At present, bubble markets such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada are already facing double-digit house price declines, but economists believe that the global house price decline has just begun.</p><p>According to the media, Hideaki Hirata of Hosei University said: \"We will observe a globally synchronized housing market decline in 2023 and 2024.\" Hideaki Hirata, a former BOJ economist, warned that the full impact of this year's sharp rate hike on households will take time to manifest.</p><p>Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah said:</p><p>\"If the central bank tightens too much, the prospect of a soft landing diminishes. House prices could fall faster, exacerbating and prolonging the recession.\" In Poland, some borrowers doubled their monthly payments as interest rates rose. The Polish government said earlier this year that it would allow Poles to suspend repayments for up to eight months. Wiped out major profits for banks after the banking sector was forced to write in provisions of about PLN 13 billion ($2.78 billion).</p><p>Sweden was once one of the hottest markets in Europe. Since this spring, house prices in the country have fallen by about 8%, and most economists now expect a decline of 15%. Rising interest rates are also putting pressure on real estate companies that borrow heavily in the bond market to finance their operations, making investors increasingly worried about their ability to refinance these debts.</p><p>The decline in house prices in the UK is also accelerating. According to a media analysis, in almost half of London's boroughs, house prices are flat or falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>The UK is at the \"apex of a housing downturn\" with demand likely to fall by 20pc over the coming year, companies have warned.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The hottest real estate market in the world, the bubble is collectively bursting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe hottest real estate market in the world, the bubble is collectively bursting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-12 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>House prices in the hot housing market have fallen sharply as mortgage rates soar, regional staff losses put pressure on both home buyers and owners alike. Worldwide, soaring borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers and owners alike, with the housing market cooling sharply.</p><p>The average U.S. home sold below asking price for the first time in nearly 18 months, according to online real estate brokerage Redfin.</p><p>The shift came largely as central banks rate hike at the fastest pace in decades, mortgage rates soared and millions of people who bought homes cheaply during the pandemic faced higher payments. As a result, buyers are retreating, and house prices in hot real estate markets such as the United States, Australia, Canada and Sweden are all falling.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NMR\">Nomura Holdings</a>Rob Subbaraman, head of global market research, said:</p><p>\"Interest rates have risen sharply at a time when inflation-adjusted real wages are falling, something young families with debt may not have experienced in their lives.\" U.S. homes sell below list price for first time since 2021</p><p>Redfin said the average selling price-to-listing price ratio fell to 99.8% in the four weeks ending Aug. 28. The rate has not fallen below 100% since March 2021.</p><p>In addition, the supply of homes for sale grew at a record rate in July this year, and the growth rate of new home sales in the United States dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of 2016. Mortgage rates hit their highest level since June this week and are closing in on 2022 highs amid expectations of further rate hike from the Federal Reserve.</p><p>While the U.S. housing market has cooled so far this year, there are some signs that the market is beginning to level off right now. The Redfin report shows that the percentage of homes pending for sale at reduced prices is the same as in the previous four weeks, at 7.5%.</p><p>However, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement:</p><p>\"While the cooling seems to be gradually ending, there are signs that the market has more room to ease. The post-Labor Day economic slowdown this year may be a bit more severe than in previous years when the market was super-tight.\" San Francisco home prices fall sharply amid exodus</p><p>San Francisco home prices plummeted last month amid soaring interest rates and an exodus of workers from tech companies.</p><p>In the four weeks ending Sept. 4, the city's median single-family home price fell 7% from a year earlier, the largest annual decline since 2012, to $1.4 million, according to a Redfin report.</p><p>Compass, a real estate brokerage, said the number of contracts it signed in San Francisco has dropped 25% since August 2021.</p><p>Daryl Fairweather said in an interview: \"Housing prices in San Francisco have become so expensive because there are tech people working here. However, the epidemic and remote work have weakened technology companies' ties to the region.\"</p><p>Home sales across the U.S. have hit the brakes as soaring borrowing costs reduce affordability and sellers remain reluctant to cut prices. San Francisco has been hit hard as its workers remain reluctant to return to their desks, lagging behind resumption rates in other major metro areas and prompting the closure of many restaurants and retailers in the city.</p><p>The global decline in house prices has just begun</p><p>While the housing recession so far hasn't come close to the level of the 2008 financial crisis, data on the housing market is a key variable for central bankers looking to tame inflation without triggering a deep recession.</p><p>At present, bubble markets such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada are already facing double-digit house price declines, but economists believe that the global house price decline has just begun.</p><p>According to the media, Hideaki Hirata of Hosei University said: \"We will observe a globally synchronized housing market decline in 2023 and 2024.\" Hideaki Hirata, a former BOJ economist, warned that the full impact of this year's sharp rate hike on households will take time to manifest.</p><p>Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah said:</p><p>\"If the central bank tightens too much, the prospect of a soft landing diminishes. House prices could fall faster, exacerbating and prolonging the recession.\" In Poland, some borrowers doubled their monthly payments as interest rates rose. The Polish government said earlier this year that it would allow Poles to suspend repayments for up to eight months. Wiped out major profits for banks after the banking sector was forced to write in provisions of about PLN 13 billion ($2.78 billion).</p><p>Sweden was once one of the hottest markets in Europe. Since this spring, house prices in the country have fallen by about 8%, and most economists now expect a decline of 15%. Rising interest rates are also putting pressure on real estate companies that borrow heavily in the bond market to finance their operations, making investors increasingly worried about their ability to refinance these debts.</p><p>The decline in house prices in the UK is also accelerating. According to a media analysis, in almost half of London's boroughs, house prices are flat or falling.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>The UK is at the \"apex of a housing downturn\" with demand likely to fall by 20pc over the coming year, companies have warned.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670087\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"BK1148":"建筑与工程","09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670087","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108863046","content_text":"抵押贷款利率飙升、地区人员流失，购房者和业主均面临压力，火热房地产市场房价大幅下跌。在全球范围内，飙升的借贷成本正在挤压购房者和业主的压力，房地产市场大幅降温。根据在线房产经纪公司Redfin的数据，美国平均房屋售价近18个月来首次低于要价。这种转变主要是因为各国央行以几十年来最快的速度加息，抵押贷款利率飙升，数百万在疫情期间以低廉的价格购买房屋的人面临更高的还款额。因此购房者正在撤退，美国、澳大利亚、加拿大和瑞典等火热房地产市场的房价都在下跌。野村控股全球市场研究主管Rob Subbaraman表示：“在经通胀调整后的实际工资下降之际，利率大幅上升，这可能是背负债务的年轻家庭一生中从未经历过的事。”美国房屋售价自2021年来首次低于标价Redfin表示，在截至8月28日的四个星期内，平均售价与挂牌价格的比率降至99.8%。自2021年3月以来，该比率从未低于100%。此外，今年7月份待售房屋供应以创纪录的速度增长，美国新屋销售增速降至2016年初以来的最低水平。由于预期美联储将进一步加息，抵押贷款利率本周创下6月以来的最高水平，并逼近2022年的高点。尽管美国房地产市场今年迄今已经降温，但有一些迹象表明，目前市场正开始趋于平稳。Redfin的报告显示，降价待售的房子比例与前四周相同，为7.5%。不过Redfin首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather在一份声明中表示：“虽然冷却似乎正在逐渐结束，但有迹象表明，市场还有更大的放松空间。今年劳动节后的经济放缓可能会比市场超紧张的前几年更严重一些。”因人员外流 旧金山房价急剧下滑由于利率飙升和科技公司工作者外流，旧金山房价上个月暴跌。根据Redfin的一份报告，在截至9月4日的四个星期内，该市的单户住宅中位价比去年同期下降了7%，为2012年以来的最大年度跌幅，至140万美元。房产经纪公司Compass表示，自2021年8月以来，其在旧金山签订的合同数量下降了25%。Daryl Fairweather在接受采访时说：“旧金山的房价是因为有科技人员在这工作而变得如此昂贵。然而疫情和远程工作削弱了科技公司与该地区的联系。”由于飙升的借贷成本降低了人们的负担能力，而卖家仍然不愿降价，美国各地的房屋销售都已刹车。旧金山受到了沉重打击 ，因为其工人仍然不愿回到办公桌前，落后于其他主要都市区的复工率，并促使该市许多餐馆和零售商关闭。全球房价下滑才刚刚开始虽然到目前为止的房地产衰退还没有接近2008年金融危机的水平，但对于希望在不引发深度衰退的情况下抑制通胀的央行官员来说，房地产市场的数据是一个关键变量。目前，澳大利亚、新西兰和加拿大等泡沫市场已经面临两位数的房价下跌，但经济学家认为全球房价下滑才刚刚开始。据媒体，法政大学的Hideaki Hirata表示：“我们将在2023年和2024年观察到全球同步的房地产市场下滑。”平田英明曾是日本央行经济学家，他警告说，今年大幅加息对家庭的全面影响还需要时间才能显现出来。彭博经济学家Niraj Shah表示：“如果央行收紧过度，软着陆的前景就会减弱。房价可能会更快地下跌，加剧并延长衰退。”在波兰，随着利率的上升，一些借款人的每月还款翻了一番。波兰政府今年早些时候表示，允许波兰人暂停还款长达8个月。在银行业被迫计入约130亿兹罗提（27.8亿美元）的拨备后，抹去了银行的主要利润。瑞典曾是欧洲最热门的市场之一，自今年春季以来，该国房价已经下跌了约8%，多数经济学家目前预计降幅为15%。不断上升的利率也给在债券市场上大举借债以为运营融资的房地产公司带来压力，让投资者越来越担心它们是否有能力为这些债务再融资。英国的房价下跌也在加速。据媒体的一项分析显示，在伦敦几乎一半的行政区，房价持平或下跌。汇丰控股公司警告称，英国正处于“房地产低迷的顶点”，未来一年的需求可能会下降20%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}