To The Moon

Something significant just happened in the bond market. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at: 5.15%. One week earlier? 4.86%. That is a jump of: 29 BASIS POINTS IN ONE WEEK. Meanwhile: 2-Year Treasury: 4.88%. 30-Year Treasury: 5.47%. And Friday's stock market? Nasdaq: -0.91%. S&P 500: -0.40%. QQQ: -1.20%. So here's the contradiction. Investors can now lock in relatively attractive nominal returns from US government bonds. But the same rise in yields is creating fresh pressure on technology stocks. Does that make Treasuries a bargain? Or does it mean something worse is developing? I think the answer depends on one crucial distinction. HIGH YIELDS ARE AN OPPORTUNITY. RAPIDLY RISING YIELDS ARE A WARNING. And confusing the two can be expensive. 🔥 FIRST, WHY DID TREASURY YIELDS SU

[Smile]  let,s wait and see in December 

A 5% yield on the US 10-year Treasury is hard to ignore. For the first time in a long time, investors can earn an attractive return from US government debt without taking the same level of risk as equities. But there’s a catch: When risk-free returns become more attractive, stocks have to work harder to justify their valuations. Here’s why I’m watching this closely. 1️⃣ The bull case: Bonds are becoming attractive again A 5% yield offers long-term investors a compelling income opportunity. If inflation cools and Treasury yields subsequently fall, investors buying bonds at elevated yields today could benefit from both income and capital appreciation. Long-duration US Treasuries could be particularly interesting if economic growth slows and interest rates eventually decline. 2️⃣ The bear cas

Something significant just happened in the bond market. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at: 5.15%. One week earlier? 4.86%. That is a jump of: 29 BASIS POINTS IN ONE WEEK. Meanwhile: 2-Year Treasury: 4.88%. 30-Year Treasury: 5.47%. And Friday's stock market? Nasdaq: -0.91%. S&P 500: -0.40%. QQQ: -1.20%. So here's the contradiction. Investors can now lock in relatively attractive nominal returns from US government bonds. But the same rise in yields is creating fresh pressure on technology stocks. Does that make Treasuries a bargain? Or does it mean something worse is developing? I think the answer depends on one crucial distinction. HIGH YIELDS ARE AN OPPORTUNITY. RAPIDLY RISING YIELDS ARE A WARNING. And confusing the two can be expensive. 🔥 FIRST, WHY DID TREASURY YIELDS SU

A 5% yield on the US 10-year Treasury is hard to ignore. For the first time in a long time, investors can earn an attractive return from US government debt without taking the same level of risk as equities. But there’s a catch: When risk-free returns become more attractive, stocks have to work harder to justify their valuations. Here’s why I’m watching this closely. 1️⃣ The bull case: Bonds are becoming attractive again A 5% yield offers long-term investors a compelling income opportunity. If inflation cools and Treasury yields subsequently fall, investors buying bonds at elevated yields today could benefit from both income and capital appreciation. Long-duration US Treasuries could be particularly interesting if economic growth slows and interest rates eventually decline. 2️⃣ The bear cas

[Smile]  let,s wait and see in December