To The Moon

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Gold prices plunged on Wednesday (April 15), partly due to profit-taking by investors. Additionally, rising stock markets weakened safe-haven demand, and rising US Treasury yields contributed to the decline. Investors continued to assess the latest developments in the US and Iran, and their implications for the interest rate outlook. In early Asian trading on April 16, gold prices fluctuated upwards, reaching a high of around $4837.5, and are currently trading around $4820. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 2 On Thursday (April 16) in Asian trading, despite ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices rose significantly as renewed efforts to resolve th

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Gold's upward trend accelerated, breaking through the $4,800 mark and subsequently surpassing the strong resistance at $4,857. The next resistance level is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,896. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Price action indicates that gold is currently trading near a four-day high, suggesting strengthening buying momentum; this is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned bullish two days ago.

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! On Monday (April 13), gold prices experienced a dramatic rollercoaster ride. Shocked by the complete breakdown of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran, gold prices initially plummeted by over 2%, hitting a low of $4639.65, the lowest since April 7. They then rebounded, ultimately closing down slightly by 0.2% at $4740.15. US gold futures also fell 0.4%, closing at $4767.40. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ However, in early Asian trading on Tuesday (April 14), gold prices continued their overnight rebound, rising as much as 0.5% to $4765.55, demonstrating strong resilienc

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at $4750 and $4800, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4550. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at high levels, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the H4 chart, gold's short-term trend shows a downward consolidation structure. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indi

Current Market Position: Gold prices are stuck in a "can't fall, can't rise" pattern within the $4700-$4800 range. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator's J value has entered a strong zone and is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a short-term need for consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows short-term moving averages turning downwards, with the price trading below the MA5/MA10. The MACD has turned from red to green, and the green histogram is gradually increasing in volume, indicating emerging bearish momentum. Key Price Levels for Bulls and Bears$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Level | Direction | Price (USD/oz) | Explanation: Premium Resis

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

Technically, gold remains in a weak zone, with $4600 a key support/resistance level. Although gold has seen a short-term rebound, from a technical perspective, its overall trend has not fundamentally changed.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Currently, gold prices are still trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (currently at $4809), indicating that medium- to long-term downward pressure persists. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has crossed below the slow line, and both are below the zero line, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, indicating that selling pressure is gradually accumulating. The Relative St

💬 Gold & mining investors: Gold crashed but gold stocks held strong. Is this the classic “divergence bottom” signal? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ suffered a brutal collapse in March, plunging more than 13% — its worst monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet gold stocks showed remarkable resilience: they did not sell off in lockstep, and some top miners even posted double-digit gains late in the month. Gold fell hard, but gold stocks did not. Is this just a temporary divergence… or is the market quietly shifting direction? Independent analyst Ross Norman described late-March gains as a mere “dead cat bounce,” bluntly stating it “was not a real rebound at all.” The core driver of the crash was a dramatic

💬 Gold investors: $10,000 gold — fantasy or inevitable? Where do you stand in this wild debate? Let’s hear your price target! Gold hit an all-time high of roughly **$5,600 per ounce** in January this year — more than double the level of around $2,600 at the end of 2024. As of press time, gold has pulled back to approximately $4,800 an ounce. Even so, a growing number of prominent analysts, business leaders, and investors — including Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — believe gold could nearly double again to $10,000 per ounce in the near future. Why Did Gold Surge Over the Past Two Years? $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. This pressure strengthened the U

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

💬 Gold traders & macro investors: DXY >100, oil >$100… and gold is RISING? Is this the new inflation hedge playbook? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 100.57 and crude oil futures climbed above $102.88 per barrel — both breaking the 100 level at the same time. By traditional trading logic, this is a double bearish signal for gold: A stronger dollar raises costs for non-U.S. buyers, while a sharp crude oil spike usually sparks fears of tighter liquidity first. Yet gold rose for five straight sessions, settling at $4,540 — up 2.84% in total. This unusual move is forcing traders to rethink gold’s pricing model. Why Did the Traditional Playbook Fail? The textbook says: Stro

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

Technical Analysis:$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ On the H4 chart, the short-term trend shows a rebound and correction structure, with prices gradually rising along short-term moving averages, but lacking strong breakout momentum. The MACD oscillates repeatedly around the zero line, indicating a clear divergence between bulls and bears; the RSI is in the 50-60 range, reflecting a slightly bullish but weak market. If the price fails to effectively break through the $4800 resistance, it may fall back to test the $4500 support. A break below this level could trigger further declines; conversely, a break above key resistance with fundamental support would confirm a trend reversal. In summary, the current gold technical structure exhibi

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

💬 Gold investors: Are you buying this dip? Do you think the worst of the selloff is over? Let’s hear your take! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$After an unusually concentrated selloff in years, international spot gold has staged a key stabilization and rebound. Aggressive dip-buying inflows have strongly supported the market, successfully defending a historic three-year bull run. Gold’s short-term correction has been sharp. Data shows gold plunged 15% so far this month. From its January closing high through last Thursday’s trading session, prices retreated 19% — nearing the 20% threshold that defines a technical bear market — putting bullish sentiment to a severe test. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and ri

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Gold prices plunged on Wednesday (April 15), partly due to profit-taking by investors. Additionally, rising stock markets weakened safe-haven demand, and rising US Treasury yields contributed to the decline. Investors continued to assess the latest developments in the US and Iran, and their implications for the interest rate outlook. In early Asian trading on April 16, gold prices fluctuated upwards, reaching a high of around $4837.5, and are currently trading around $4820. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ 2 On Thursday (April 16) in Asian trading, despite ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices rose significantly as renewed efforts to resolve th

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Gold's upward trend accelerated, breaking through the $4,800 mark and subsequently surpassing the strong resistance at $4,857. The next resistance level is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,896. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Price action indicates that gold is currently trading near a four-day high, suggesting strengthening buying momentum; this is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned bullish two days ago.

Current Market Position: Gold prices are stuck in a "can't fall, can't rise" pattern within the $4700-$4800 range. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator's J value has entered a strong zone and is approaching overbought territory, suggesting a short-term need for consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows short-term moving averages turning downwards, with the price trading below the MA5/MA10. The MACD has turned from red to green, and the green histogram is gradually increasing in volume, indicating emerging bearish momentum. Key Price Levels for Bulls and Bears$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Level | Direction | Price (USD/oz) | Explanation: Premium Resis

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! On Monday (April 13), gold prices experienced a dramatic rollercoaster ride. Shocked by the complete breakdown of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran, gold prices initially plummeted by over 2%, hitting a low of $4639.65, the lowest since April 7. They then rebounded, ultimately closing down slightly by 0.2% at $4740.15. US gold futures also fell 0.4%, closing at $4767.40. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ However, in early Asian trading on Tuesday (April 14), gold prices continued their overnight rebound, rising as much as 0.5% to $4765.55, demonstrating strong resilienc

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows that gold prices have entered a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, currently exhibiting a weak, high-level consolidation pattern. Key resistance levels are located at $4750 and $4800, while support levels are concentrated around $4600 and $4550. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD shows signs of a bearish crossover at high levels, and the RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the H4 chart, gold's short-term trend shows a downward consolidation structure. The gap formed and failed to be quickly filled, indi

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

💬 Gold traders & macro investors: DXY >100, oil >$100… and gold is RISING? Is this the new inflation hedge playbook? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index closed at 100.57 and crude oil futures climbed above $102.88 per barrel — both breaking the 100 level at the same time. By traditional trading logic, this is a double bearish signal for gold: A stronger dollar raises costs for non-U.S. buyers, while a sharp crude oil spike usually sparks fears of tighter liquidity first. Yet gold rose for five straight sessions, settling at $4,540 — up 2.84% in total. This unusual move is forcing traders to rethink gold’s pricing model. Why Did the Traditional Playbook Fail? The textbook says: Stro

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

💬 Gold investors: $10,000 gold — fantasy or inevitable? Where do you stand in this wild debate? Let’s hear your price target! Gold hit an all-time high of roughly **$5,600 per ounce** in January this year — more than double the level of around $2,600 at the end of 2024. As of press time, gold has pulled back to approximately $4,800 an ounce. Even so, a growing number of prominent analysts, business leaders, and investors — including Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — believe gold could nearly double again to $10,000 per ounce in the near future. Why Did Gold Surge Over the Past Two Years? $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight inflation. This pressure strengthened the U

💬 Gold & mining investors: Gold crashed but gold stocks held strong. Is this the classic “divergence bottom” signal? Let’s debate! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ suffered a brutal collapse in March, plunging more than 13% — its worst monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet gold stocks showed remarkable resilience: they did not sell off in lockstep, and some top miners even posted double-digit gains late in the month. Gold fell hard, but gold stocks did not. Is this just a temporary divergence… or is the market quietly shifting direction? Independent analyst Ross Norman described late-March gains as a mere “dead cat bounce,” bluntly stating it “was not a real rebound at all.” The core driver of the crash was a dramatic

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

Technically, gold remains in a weak zone, with $4600 a key support/resistance level. Although gold has seen a short-term rebound, from a technical perspective, its overall trend has not fundamentally changed.$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ Currently, gold prices are still trading below the 200-period exponential moving average (currently at $4809), indicating that medium- to long-term downward pressure persists. The MACD indicator shows that its fast line has crossed below the slow line, and both are below the zero line, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, indicating that selling pressure is gradually accumulating. The Relative St

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

This past weekend was actually the calmest in recent weeks. Markets had expected the U.S. to deploy ground forces to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, but aside from strikes on Iranian steel plants, there was little major action. Overall, it was relatively quiet compared to prior weeks. However, actions of this scale alone by the U.S. and Israel are not enough to resolve the current blockade of the strait. The real turning point will come when the strait is reopened—that’s when a fundamental shift occurs. At present, the Pentagon appears to be aiming to replicate the rapid success seen during the 1990 Gulf War, hoping to quickly resolve the blockade within one to three months. Whether that is realistic remains to be seen, and only actual deployment will provide answers. But if even U.S. ground fo

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

💬 Gold investors: Are you buying this dip? Do you think the worst of the selloff is over? Let’s hear your take! $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$After an unusually concentrated selloff in years, international spot gold has staged a key stabilization and rebound. Aggressive dip-buying inflows have strongly supported the market, successfully defending a historic three-year bull run. Gold’s short-term correction has been sharp. Data shows gold plunged 15% so far this month. From its January closing high through last Thursday’s trading session, prices retreated 19% — nearing the 20% threshold that defines a technical bear market — putting bullish sentiment to a severe test. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and ri