To The Moon

On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex

I’m backing Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ to deliver the strongest post-earnings performance. Azure demand has stayed resilient, and I believe Copilot is gradually becoming a meaningful revenue driver. If Microsoft reports strong cloud growth while proving AI investments are generating returns, it could further strengthen the AI bull case. Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is my second choice, with AI continuing to improve its advertising business, although expectations are already high. Apple needs to show Apple Intelligence can drive a new upgrade cycle, while Amazon’s AWS could surprise if AI cloud demand accelerates. Overall, I think this earnings season is about proving AI spending can translate in

Good

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft is my pick. The key question isn’t whether AI demand is strong, it’s whether Azure growth and Copilot revenue are beginning to justify the enormous infrastructure spend. If Microsoft can show accelerating AI monetisation while protecting margins, I think it could set the tone for the entire tech sector this week. If capex rises faster than revenue again, the market may become much less patient.

Microsoft. Increased Copilot penetration

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ I have a good feeling

msft. its time to run

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

It’s a big week for U.S. tech earnings, with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon all set to report their latest quarterly results. Are billions of dollars in AI spending finally turning into real business growth? After Alphabet’s earnings sparked concerns over rising AI costs and heavy capital spending, markets are watching closely to see whether Big Tech can prove that AI investments are paying off. Cloud growth, AI monetization, advertising strength, and profit margins will be the key battlegrounds. Which company will deliver the biggest surprise after earnings? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

It’s a big week for U.S. tech earnings, with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon all set to report their latest quarterly results. Are billions of dollars in AI spending finally turning into real business growth? After Alphabet’s earnings sparked concerns over rising AI costs and heavy capital spending, markets are watching closely to see whether Big Tech can prove that AI investments are paying off. Cloud growth, AI monetization, advertising strength, and profit margins will be the key battlegrounds. Which company will deliver the biggest surprise after earnings? $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

I’m backing Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ to deliver the strongest post-earnings performance. Azure demand has stayed resilient, and I believe Copilot is gradually becoming a meaningful revenue driver. If Microsoft reports strong cloud growth while proving AI investments are generating returns, it could further strengthen the AI bull case. Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is my second choice, with AI continuing to improve its advertising business, although expectations are already high. Apple needs to show Apple Intelligence can drive a new upgrade cycle, while Amazon’s AWS could surprise if AI cloud demand accelerates. Overall, I think this earnings season is about proving AI spending can translate in

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft is my pick. The key question isn’t whether AI demand is strong, it’s whether Azure growth and Copilot revenue are beginning to justify the enormous infrastructure spend. If Microsoft can show accelerating AI monetisation while protecting margins, I think it could set the tone for the entire tech sector this week. If capex rises faster than revenue again, the market may become much less patient.

Good

Microsoft. Increased Copilot penetration

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ I have a good feeling

msft. its time to run